2022 Bradley Terry College Football Rankings – Week 12

· Leave a comment ·

Well, it has been a minute. The Committee of One released its first rankings using the tried and true model a few weeks ago to the usual fanfare I have gotten used to. In the intervening weeks, we had a lot of interesting things happen.

  • Georgia beat Tennessee in an undefeated battle
  • Tennessee got stunned by South Carolina
  • Alabama lost to LSU and thus its place in the Final Four (at least based on committee history)
  • Michigan and TCU BARELY survive scares against Illinois and Baylor, respectively.
  • Oregon does NOT survive a scare against their arch rivals at Washington
  • Clemson got blown away by Notre Dame but it might not end up mattering

Anyway, after all of this – how do the rankings look?

Bradley-Terry Rankings
Rank Team W L Rating RR%
1 Georgia 11 0 2402.39 97.25
2 Ohio State 11 0 1714.33 96.52
3 TCU 11 0 580.04 92.7
4 Michigan 11 0 579.28 92.69
5 Tennessee 9 2 362.38 90.07
6 Alabama 9 2 343.1 89.72
7 LSU 9 2 230.71 86.84
8 Clemson 10 1 222.36 86.54
9 Penn State 9 2 212.81 86.18
10 USC 10 1 208.93 86.02
11 Oregon 9 2 178.79 84.66
12 Kansas State 8 3 145.8 82.73
13 Texas 7 4 145.66 82.72
14 Utah 8 3 114.67 80.23
15 Florida State 8 3 100 78.69
16 Ole Miss 8 3 89.22 77.36
17 Mississippi State 7 4 82.77 76.45
18 Oklahoma State 7 4 81.78 76.3
19 Notre Dame 8 3 81.13 76.2
20 Washington 9 2 70.72 74.47
21 UCLA 8 3 68.92 74.14
22 South Carolina 7 4 64.53 73.27
23 Oregon State 8 3 62.85 72.92
24 Tulane 9 2 59.95 72.29
25 Texas Tech 6 5 56.79 71.55

Ten more: Louisville (7-4), Florida (6-5), Baylor (6-5), Arkansas (6-5), Kentucky (6-5), Kansas (6-5), Wake Forst (7-4), Oklahoma (6-5), North Carolina (9-2), Washington State (7-4)

The way the committee has historically worked for a 4 team event is really focusing on numbers of losses among Power 5 teams. As such, I’d expect Georgia-Ohio State-TCU-Michigan as your Final 4 when the rankings are announced on Tuesday. That said, my rankings are superior – both manifestly and as a real assessment of resumes and such. The error bars are high of course (such small samples) but if you think of it like a NET rating in basketball, the utility is clear. While the model seems hard on North Carolina, their resume really is bereft of quality. Anyway, the rankings are much more useful when tryng to fit a 12-team playoff.

Automatic Bids

  • SEC: Georgia (1)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (2)
  • Big 12: TCU (3)
  • ACC: Clemson (8)
  • Pac-12: USC (10)
  • AAC: Tulane (24)

At Large Bids – Clear

  • Michigan (3) – 92.69%
  • Tennessee (5) – 90.07%
  • Alabama (6) – 89.72%

The Bubble

  • LSU (7) – 86.84%
  • Penn State (9) – 86.18%
  • Oregon (11) – 84.66%
  • Kansas State (12) – 82.73%
  • Texas (13) – 82.72%

The drop is between Texas and Utah (80.23%) so this is really the field for 3 teams. Looking at the field, there seems to be enough separation between Penn State and Oregon and the other two teams. Texas has 4 losses, but they were all tough ones against good teams, so their resume has more cookies than North Carolina’s. I think the top 3 teams here is pretty easy this time.

A 12-team bracket

Byes: Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, Clemson

First Round (using seeds in parenthesis – so 12 is 12th seed not 12th in rankings)

  • (12) Tulane at (5) Michigan
  • (11) Oregon at (6) Tennessee
  • (10) USC at (7) Alabama
  • (9) Penn State at (8) LSU

With the Thanksgiving Holiday, maybe we will go into the wayback machine to see how the rankings would have looked in some previous fun years.

2022 Bradley Terry College Football Rankings – The Return (Week 9)

· Leave a comment ·

Yeah, yeah, yeah – all season long I’ve been tracking things through an ELO model and it’s all fine I guess. But one of the nice things is now having some side by side comparison with the Bradley Terry model I’ve been using since 2008 to see what I like better. Overall, after much deliberation – it is pretty clear that the Bradley-Terry method works a lot better. The attractiveness of the ELO method is its week to week “matchups determined by weekly rankings” thing – but that is more than offset by the idea that preseason expectations (especially carried over from a previous season) played too big a role. It makes sense to treat each season freshly.

Fortunately, we still have the Bradley-Terry method. The pure form of the method works like this:

  • All games are worth 1 point
  • Each team’s ability is assumed to have a base ability.
  • If team X has twice the ability of team Y, team X will win twice as many games as team Y in a head to head.
  • The games played by all Z FBS teams (and an extra team for all non-FBS teams) results in a ZxZ matrix of head to head win percentages
  • Using iteration, solve for the ability for each team. (here is a mathy explanation)
  • As a result, this method implicitly solves for home field advantage as well as strength of schedule.

I’ve been doing rankings like THAT since 2008 – save for 2020 where the pandemic eliminated most of the non-conference games that allow a Bradley Terry model to converge. Now, I don’t use a pure model – I do incorporate margin of victory. After tinkering with methods I settled on the winning team getting 0.75. The team can get up to the full 1 based on a multiplicative factor (from 1 to 1.3333) based on a logarithmic factor of up to 28 points. This means that the marginal value of the 28th point of victory margin is worth less bonus than the 2nd point of victory margin.

With the first College Football Playoff ranking looming, it seemed like a good time to reveal the first Bradley-Terry ranking.

Bradley-Terry Rankings
Rank Team W L Rating RR%
1 Georgia 8 0 2441.34 96.7
2 Ohio State 8 0 2363.77 96.63
3 Tennessee 8 0 1772.99 95.92
4 Clemson 8 0 851.42 93.51
5 Michigan 8 0 725 92.85
6 TCU 8 0 689.2 92.62
7 Alabama 7 1 589.14 91.9
8 Oregon 7 1 353.31 89.11
9 LSU 6 2 232.87 86.28
10 Kansas State 6 2 183.61 84.42
11 Penn State 6 2 178.05 84.16
12 Oklahoma State 6 2 173.76 83.96
13 USC 7 1 171.94 83.87
14 UCLA 7 1 160.59 83.28
15 Ole Miss 8 1 152.5 82.82
16 Tulane 7 1 120.1 80.6
17 Utah 6 2 113.58 80.05
18 Wake Forest 6 2 105.32 79.29
19 Florida State 5 3 100 78.75
20 Texas 5 3 90.92 77.75
21 Mississippi State 5 3 85.19 77.04
22 NC State 6 2 80.7 76.44
23 Syracuse 6 2 79.36 76.26
24 Kentucky 5 3 71.31 75.04
25 Oklahoma 5 3 62.11 73.41

Ten more: Arkansas (5-3), Kansas (5-3), Florida (4-4), Oregon State (6-2), Notre Dame (5-3), Liberty (7-1), Louisville (5-3), North Carolina (7-1), Baylor (5-3), South Carolina (5-3)

Now, with years of experience with this model – I can say that using this to pick the Top 4 teams is somewhat flawed though a Georgia-Ohio State-Tennessee-Clemson Final 4 looks right to me for now. We know the committee would value an 8-1 Ole Miss over a 6-2 Oklahoma State. And if you look at the standard error of the ability scores (this is a small sample after all), the ranking error bars are high. But what if we used it like an NET rating, like with the NCAA Basketball Tournament? Let’s go to the 12 team model that is going to be implemented in the coming years.

Automatic Bids

  • SEC: Georgia (1)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (2)
  • ACC: Clemson (4)
  • Big 12: TCU (6)
  • Pac 12: Oregon (8)
  • American: Tulane (16)

At Large Bids – Clear

  • Tennessee (3) – 95.92%
  • Michigan (5) – 92.85%
  • Alabama (7) – 91.90%

The Bubble

  • LSU (9) – 86.28%
  • Kansas State (10) – 84.42%
  • Penn State (11) – 84.16%
  • Oklahoma State (12) – 83.96%
  • USC (13) – 83.87%
  • UCLA (14) – 83.28%
  • Ole Miss (15) – 82.82%

There is a distinct drop to the next at-large team, Utah at 80.05%, so this seven team list seems like a solid tier. USC, UCLA and Ole Miss are 1-loss teams. LSU has the win over Ole Miss but got trampled by Tennessee in Baton Rouge. USC and UCLA have only lost to good teams on the road. Oklahoma State’s losses are justifiable but Kansas State was pretty rough. Kansas State has that win over Oklahoma State but lost at home to Tulane. Now, Tulane is good, and early in the season – but that does count.

The committee of one would vote for the 1-loss teams … USC, UCLA and Ole Miss. But you can argue for any of the 2-loss teams and I’d be cool.

A 12-team bracket

Byes: Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, TCU

First Round

  • (16) Tulane at (3) Tennessee
  • (15) Ole Miss at (5) Michigan
  • (14) UCLA at (7) Alabama
  • (13) USC at (8) Oregon

It’s a Livin Thing – 2022 College Football ELO Rankings, Week 5

· 1 Comment ·

Well, I’ll be. Georgia Tech won a football game – a good road win at Pitt no less. I am pretty skeptical about making hiring decisions based on a midseason coaching change but obviously this is good for Brent Key’s candidacy. As far as the rest of the 30? (For a quick description of the ELO methodology, check here.)

  • (1) Georgia struggles for a half but survives at (88) Missouri
  • (2) Alabama, despite losing Bryce Young early wins decisively at (19) Arkansas
  • (3) Ohio State rolled at home against (89) Rutgers
  • (4) Clemson wins at home in one of the games of the day against (16) NC State
  • (5) Baylor loses at home to (6) Oklahoma State
  • (7) Michigan scores a decisive road win at (25) Iowa
  • (8) Cincinnati takes care of business at home against (122) South Florida
  • (9) Minnesota loses at home to (61) Purdue
  • (10) Ole Miss probably should have lost at home to (11) Kentucky but managed to survive
  • (12) Penn State beats (127) Northwestern in a game none of us should have to watch again
  • (13) Oregon blasts (120) Stanford in Eugune
  • (14) Coastal Carolina survives at home against (78) Georgia Southern
  • (15) Utah obliterates (26) Oregon State at home
  • (17) Pitt loses at home to (114) Georgia Tech
  • (21) BYU defeated (79) Utah State in Provo
  • (22) Texas A&M loses at (48) Mississippi State
  • (23) Oklahoma gets blown away at (26) TCU
  • (24) UCLA hands (49) Washington its first loss of the year
  • (27) USC defeats (99) Arizona State
  • (28) Western Kentucky loses at home to (77) Troy
  • (29) Maryland decisively wins at home over (51) and rapidly declining Michigan State
  • (30) Wake Forest wins at (33) Florida State

How does this impact the Top 30?

  1. (1) Georgia (5-0)
  2. (2) Alabama (5-0)
  3. (6) Oklahoma State (4-0)
  4. (3) Ohio State (5-0)
  5. (7) Michigan (5-0)
  6. (4) Clemson (5-0)
  7. (8) Cincinnati (4-1)
  8. (10) Ole Miss (5-0)
  9. (15) Utah (4-1)
  10. (12) Penn State (5-0)
  11. (14) Coastal Carolina (5-0)
  12. (13) Oregon (4-1)
  13. (5) Baylor (3-2)
  14. (11) Kentucky (4-1)
  15. (26) TCU (4-0)
  16. (31) Wake Forest (4-1)
  17. (18) Notre Dame (2-2)
  18. (20) Tennessee (4-0)
  19. (16) NC State (4-1)
  20. (24) UCLA (5-0)
  21. (21) BYU (4-1)
  22. (29) Maryland (4-1)
  23. (34) Kansas State (4-1)
  24. (9) Minnesota (4-1)
  25. (36) Liberty (4-1)
  26. (27) USC (5-0)
  27. (58) Purdue (3-2)
  28. (19) Arkansas (3-2)
  29. (48) Mississippi State (4-1)
  30. (54) UTSA (3-2)

Ten more: LSU (4-1), Air Force (4-1). Illinois (4-1), Washington State (4-1), UCF (4-1), Kansas (5-0), Oklahoma (3-2), Texas A&M (3-2), Iowa (3-2), Syracuse (5-0)

Fitting a 12 Team Tournament

  • Georgia (1) – SEC
  • Oklahoma State (3) – Big 12
  • Ohio State (4) – Big Ten
  • Clemson (6) – ACC
  • Cincinnati (7) – American
  • Utah (9) – Pac 12
  • At Large 1 – Alabama (2)
  • At Large 2 – Michigan (5)
  • At Large 3 – Ole Miss (8)
  • At Large 4 – Penn State (10)
  • At Large 5 – Coastal Carolina (11)
  • At Large 6 – Oregon (12)

First Round Matchups

  • (12) Oregon at (5) Alabama
  • (11) Coastal Carolina at (6) Michigan
  • (10) Penn State at (7) Cincinnati
  • (9) Utah at (8) Ole Miss
Rank Team W L Rating
1 Georgia 5 0 1970.41
2 Alabama 5 0 1958.66
3 Oklahoma State 4 0 1895.88
4 Ohio State 5 0 1866.59
5 Michigan 5 0 1860.08
6 Clemson 5 0 1859.61
7 Cincinnati 4 1 1830.84
8 Ole Miss 5 0 1810.91
9 Utah 4 1 1763.94
10 Penn State 5 0 1760.21
11 Coastal Carolina 5 0 1746.82
12 Oregon 4 1 1741.06
13 Baylor 3 2 1731.98
14 Kentucky 4 1 1730.99
15 TCU 4 0 1712.73
16 Wake Forest 4 1 1709.45
17 Notre Dame 2 2 1707.69
18 Tennessee 4 0 1702.48
19 NC State 4 1 1702.34
20 UCLA 5 0 1702.09
21 BYU 4 1 1701.71
22 Maryland 4 1 1671.56
23 Kansas State 4 1 1668.74
24 Minnesota 4 1 1668.64
25 Liberty 4 1 1667.47
26 USC 5 0 1665.3
27 Purdue 3 2 1658.09
28 Arkansas 3 2 1654.42
29 Mississippi State 4 1 1652.16
30 UTSA 3 2 1652.05
31 LSU 4 1 1646.98
32 Air Force 4 1 1640.7
33 Illinois 4 1 1637.83
34 Washington State 4 1 1637.75
35 UCF 4 1 1635.15
36 Kansas 5 0 1624.56
37 Oklahoma 3 2 1615.41
38 Texas A&M 3 2 1610.12
39 Iowa 3 2 1605.88
40 Syracuse 5 0 1604.69
41 Pitt 3 2 1604.38
42 Texas 3 2 1597.74
43 South Alabama 4 1 1594.09
44 James Madison 4 0 1593.58
45 Memphis 4 1 1589.85
46 Texas Tech 3 2 1583.04
47 Troy 3 2 1576.21
48 Boise State 3 2 1572.37
49 South Carolina 3 2 1572.07
50 Iowa State 3 2 1571.5
51 North Carolina 4 1 1571.36
52 San Jose State 3 1 1568.6
53 Oregon State 3 2 1561.33
54 Appalachian State 3 2 1560.89
55 UAB 2 2 1554.41
56 Washington 4 1 1549.51
57 UNLV 4 1 1545.96
58 Florida State 4 1 1544.36
59 Western Kentucky 3 2 1542.01
60 Michigan State 2 3 1535.76
61 East Carolina 3 2 1533.85
62 Louisiana 2 3 1526.91
63 Toledo 3 2 1520.51
64 Tulsa 2 3 1512.57
65 Tulane 4 1 1510.12
66 Florida 3 2 1506.83
67 MTSU 3 2 1505.74
68 Houston 2 3 1503.51
69 Rice 3 2 1490.8
70 San Diego State 2 3 1488.11
71 Wisconsin 2 3 1487.43
72 Georgia State 1 4 1487.11
73 SMU 2 3 1484.64
74 California 3 2 1480.65
75 Duke 4 1 1476.84
76 West Virginia 2 3 1476.73
77 Marshall 3 2 1469.19
78 Miami-OH 2 3 1468.98
79 Georgia Southern 3 2 1464.12
80 Auburn 3 2 1462.07
81 Western Michigan 2 3 1452.97
82 UTEP 3 3 1452.44
83 Miami-FL 2 2 1448.08
84 Central Michigan 1 4 1441.97
85 Vanderbilt 3 2 1441.68
86 Louisville 2 3 1433.74
87 Wyoming 3 3 1428.11
88 Georgia Tech 2 3 1427.99
89 Rutgers 3 2 1425.77
90 Missouri 2 3 1424.86
91 Buffalo 2 3 1424.26
92 Fresno State 1 3 1424.01
93 Kent State 2 3 1422.58
94 North Texas 3 3 1415.96
95 Indiana 3 2 1411.42
96 Southern Miss 2 2 1402.39
97 Eastern Michigan 3 2 1400.44
98 Nevada 2 3 1391.6
99 Boston College 2 3 1390.97
100 Army 1 3 1390.56
101 Nebraska 2 3 1389.61
102 Navy 1 3 1387.49
103 Old Dominion 2 3 1387.45
104 Utah State 1 4 1386.28
105 Ball State 1 3 1386.24
106 Arizona 3 2 1383.03
107 Bowling Green 2 2 1381.48
108 Virginia 2 3 1379.76
109 Arizona State 1 4 1375.11
110 Arkansas State 2 3 1363.7
111 Texas State 2 3 1354.1
112 Virginia Tech 2 3 1347.98
113 LA Monroe 2 3 1341.69
114 Ohio 2 3 1333.26
115 Northern Illinois 1 4 1325.45
116 New Mexico 2 3 1308.87
117 Connecticut 2 4 1295.81
118 Louisiana Tech 1 3 1275.23
119 Stanford 1 3 1271.87
120 Florida Atlantic 2 4 1270.29
121 Temple 2 3 1266.94
122 Hawaii 1 4 1258.46
123 FIU 2 2 1258.3
124 Colorado 0 5 1238.8
125 South Florida 1 4 1224.2
126 Northwestern 1 4 1208.25
127 Akron 1 4 1202.37
128 Charlotte 1 5 1168.91
129 New Mexico State 1 5 1164.82
130 Colorado State 0 4 1136.35
131 Massachusetts 1 4 1123.91

It’s a Livin Thing – 2022 College Football ELO Rankings, Week 4

· Leave a comment ·

Well, the Geoff Collins death march continues apace. The loss to UCF was not as depressingly terrible as the Ole Miss one, but it’s still a toothless loss against a pretty underwhelming opponent. UCF is a perfectly fine G5 team, but decidedly not the team that finished in the Top 10 consecutive years. But GT is not a Top 30 team, what happened to our Top 30 last week? (For a quick description of the ELO methodology, check here.)

  • (1) Georgia somehow struggled at home against (100) Kent State. Now, it was still a 17 point win, but I did not expect them to have to play the starters the whole way.
  • (2) Alabama throttled (107) Vanderbilt
  • (3) Ohio State trampled (37) in Columbus
  • (5) Oklahoma is shocked at home by (64) Kansas State
  • (6) Cincinnati hands (71) Indiana its first loss of the season
  • (7) Michigan grinds out a home win against (27) Maryland
  • (8) Arkansas loses to (36) Texas A&M in Arlington
  • (9) Clemson wins a thriller at (18) Wake Forest
  • (10) Kentucky wins at home over (101) Northern Illinois
  • (11) Ole Miss wins at home against (50) Tulsa
  • (12) Baylor wins at (22) Iowa State
  • (13) Penn State wins at home against (63) Central Michigan
  • (14) NC State rolls at home over (128) Connecticut
  • (15) Pitt has win over some FCS team
  • (16) Coastal Carolina wins at (97) Georgia State
  • (17) Utah rolls at (92) Arizona State
  • (19) Minnesota tramples (25) Michigan State in East Lansing
  • (20) Louisiana gives up the rest of its three year ranking halo at (111) Louisiana-Monroe
  • (21) Tennessee beats (70) Florida in Knoxville
  • (23) Oregon survives at (26) Washington State
  • (24) Oregon State loses at home in a close one favored (47) USC
  • (28) BYU defeats (54) Wyoming at home
  • (29) UCLA dominates (111) Colorado in Boulder
  • (30) Appalachian State loses at home to (82) James Madison – a real feather in the latter’s cap as a new FBS team

How does this impact the Top 30?

  1. (1) Georgia (4-0)
  2. (2) Alabama (4-0)
  3. (3) Ohio State (4-0)
  4. (9) Clemson (4-0)
  5. (12) Baylor (3-1)
  6. (4) Oklahoma State (3-0)
  7. (7) Michigan (4-0)
  8. (6) Cincinnati (3-1)
  9. (19) Minnesota (4-0)
  10. (11) Ole Miss (4-0)
  11. (10) Kentucky (4-0)
  12. (13) Penn State (4-0)
  13. (23) Oregon (3-1)
  14. (16) Coastal Carolina (4-0)
  15. (17) Utah (3-1)
  16. (14) NC State (4-0)
  17. (15) Pitt (3-1)
  18. (25) Notre Dame (2-2)
  19. (8) Arkansas (3-1)
  20. (21) Tennessee (4-0)
  21. (28) BYU (3-1)
  22. (36) Texas A&M (3-1)
  23. (5) Oklahoma (3-1)
  24. (29) UCLA (4-0)
  25. (42) Iowa (3-1)
  26. (49) TCU (3-0)
  27. (47) USC (4-0)
  28. (31) Western Kentucky (3-1)
  29. (27) Maryland (3-1)
  30. (18) Wake Forest (3-1)

Ten more: Texas Tech (3-1), Air Forece (3-1), Florida State (4-0), KAnsas State (3-1), UAB (2-1), Liberty (3-1), Iowa State (3-1) Washington State (3-1), Louisiana (2-2), MTSU (3-1)

Fitting a 12 Team Tournament

  • Georgia (1) – SEC
  • Ohio State (3) – Big Ten
  • Clemson (4) – ACC
  • Baylor (5) – Big 12
  • Cincinnati (8) – American
  • Coastal Carolina (14) – Sun Belt
  • At Large 1: Alabama (2)
  • At Large 2: Oklahoma State (6)
  • At Large 3: Michigan (7)
  • At Large 4: Minnesota (9)
  • At Large 5: Ole Miss (10)
  • At Large 6: Kentucky (11)

First Round Matchups

  • (12) Coastal Carolina at (5) Alabama
  • (11) Kentucky at (6) Oklahoma State
  • (10) Ole Miss at (7) Michigan
  • (9) Minnesota at (8) Cincinnati
Rank Team W L Rating
1 Georgia 4 0 1962.12
2 Alabama 4 0 1906.09
3 Ohio State 4 0 1859.7
4 Clemson 4 0 1828.47
5 Baylor 3 1 1814.85
6 Oklahoma State 3 0 1813.01
7 Michigan 4 0 1800.32
8 Cincinnati 3 1 1791.67
9 Minnesota 4 0 1779.08
10 Ole Miss 4 0 1776.46
11 Kentucky 4 0 1765.44
12 Penn State 4 0 1757.21
13 Oregon 3 1 1735.64
14 Coastal Carolina 4 0 1734.87
15 Utah 3 1 1734.73
16 NC State 4 0 1733.48
17 Pitt 3 1 1709.21
18 Notre Dame 2 2 1707.69
19 Arkansas 3 1 1706.99
20 Tennessee 4 0 1702.48
21 BYU 3 1 1689.19
22 Texas A&M 3 1 1679.48
23 Oklahoma 3 1 1673.01
24 UCLA 4 0 1671.78
25 Iowa 3 1 1665.65
26 TCU 3 0 1655.14
27 USC 4 0 1649.7
28 Western Kentucky 3 1 1639.07
29 Maryland 3 1 1633.12
30 Wake Forest 3 1 1628.97
31 Texas Tech 3 1 1628.8
32 Air Force 3 1 1627.51
33 Florida State 4 0 1624.83
34 Kansas State 3 1 1622.98
35 UAB 2 1 1622.3
36 Liberty 3 1 1614.32
37 Iowa State 3 1 1610.85
38 Washington State 3 1 1601.46
39 Louisiana 2 2 1600.53
40 MTSU 3 1 1600.13
41 Syracuse 4 0 1597.01
42 UCF 3 1 1596.03
43 Wisconsin 2 2 1592.03
44 Oregon State 3 1 1590.54
45 LSU 3 1 1589.21
46 Kansas 4 0 1585.21
47 Houston 2 2 1584.61
48 Mississippi State 3 1 1582.8
49 Washington 4 0 1579.81
50 Memphis 3 1 1576.55
51 Michigan State 2 2 1574.21
52 James Madison 3 0 1570.26
53 South Carolina 2 2 1562.82
54 UTSA 2 2 1557.67
55 Texas 2 2 1553.04
56 Tulsa 2 2 1551.74
57 Appalachian State 2 2 1551.04
58 Purdue 2 2 1547.65
59 San Diego State 2 2 1546.55
60 North Carolina 3 1 1545.36
61 Illinois 3 1 1533.23
62 Miami-OH 2 2 1533.06
63 Wyoming 3 2 1526.89
64 UNLV 3 1 1526.27
65 SMU 2 2 1523.76
66 West Virginia 2 2 1521.43
67 South Alabama 3 1 1520.47
68 Auburn 3 1 1519.84
69 California 3 1 1516.94
70 Boise State 2 2 1513.93
71 Fresno State 1 2 1508.08
72 Central Michigan 1 3 1501.6
73 Army 1 2 1498.81
74 Indiana 3 1 1495.72
75 Florida 2 2 1493.45
76 East Carolina 2 2 1484.72
77 Troy 2 2 1479.15
78 Georgia Southern 3 1 1476.06
79 Louisville 2 2 1473.68
80 San Jose State 2 1 1469.82
81 Toledo 2 2 1460.88
82 Marshall 2 2 1453.43
83 Miami-FL 2 2 1448.08
84 Vanderbilt 3 2 1441.68
85 Old Dominion 2 2 1440.6
86 Western Michigan 1 3 1434.87
87 Virginia 2 2 1433.37
88 Missouri 2 2 1433.14
89 Rutgers 3 1 1432.66
90 Tulane 3 1 1429.02
91 Duke 3 1 1423.23
92 Rice 2 2 1422.91
93 LA Monroe 2 2 1416.63
94 UTEP 2 3 1411.04
95 Southern Miss 2 2 1402.39
96 Navy 1 2 1400.68
97 Utah State 1 3 1398.8
98 Nevada 2 3 1391.6
99 Arizona State 1 3 1390.71
100 Eastern Michigan 2 2 1386.34
101 Kent State 1 3 1380.69
102 Georgia State 0 4 1378.86
103 North Texas 2 3 1378.02
104 Texas State 2 2 1377.42
105 Ohio 2 2 1375.15
106 Virginia Tech 2 2 1373.99
107 Northern Illinois 1 3 1372.03
108 Buffalo 1 3 1360.18
109 Boston College 1 3 1351.03
110 Arizona 2 2 1341.92
111 Ball State 0 3 1339.66
112 New Mexico 2 2 1328.56
113 Bowling Green 1 2 1327.48
114 Georgia Tech 1 3 1323.15
115 Florida Atlantic 2 3 1308.24
116 Nebraska 1 3 1305.31
117 Arkansas State 1 3 1288.76
118 Temple 2 2 1280.24
119 Colorado 0 4 1279.91
120 Stanford 1 2 1277.29
121 Louisiana Tech 1 3 1275.23
122 South Florida 1 3 1273.34
123 New Mexico State 1 4 1268.97
124 Hawaii 1 4 1258.46
125 Akron 1 3 1256.37
126 Connecticut 1 4 1211.73
127 Northwestern 1 3 1211.25
128 Charlotte 1 4 1210.31
129 FIU 1 2 1154.14
130 Massachusetts 1 3 1138
131 Colorado State 0 4 1136.35

It’s a Livin Thing – 2022 College Football ELO Rankings, Week 3

· Leave a comment ·

Somehow, “turn to stone” seems appropriate for this post with my alma mater putting up a, um, very underwhelming effort against Ole Miss. Maybe I will write about my alma mater in a later missive but we will stick with the rankings for now. For a quick description of the ELO methodology, check here. But the big games of the weekend?

  • (5) Louisiana was in a precarious position anyway with so few means to improve its ranking, but the loss to (110) Rice certainly knocks it down many pegs.
  • (23) Penn State obliterated (55) Auburn at Jordan Hare
  • (52) Texas A&M survives at home against (47) Miami-FL
  • (45) Oregon clobbered (14) BYU
  • (18) NC State with a strong win against (32) Texas Tech
  • (8) Michigan State loses at (84) Washington

How does this impact the Top 30?

  1. (1) Georgia (3-0)
  2. (2) Alabama (3-0)
  3. (3) Ohio State (3-0)
  4. (4) Oklahoma State (3-0)
  5. (10) Oklahoma (3-0)
  6. (13) Cincinnati (2-1)
  7. (6) Michigan (3-0)
  8. (7) Arkansas (3-0)
  9. (9) Clemson (3-0)
  10. (11) Kentucky (3-0)
  11. (15) Ole Miss (3-0)
  12. (12) Baylor (2-1)
  13. (23) Penn State (3-0)
  14. (18) NC State
  15. (39) Pitt (2-1)
  16. (17) Coastal Carolina (3-0)
  17. (25) Utah (2-1)
  18. (22) Wake Forest (3-0)
  19. (20) Minnesota (3-0)
  20. (5) Louisiana (2-1)
  21. (21) Tennessee (3-0)
  22. (26) Iowa State (3-0)
  23. (45) Oregon (2-1)
  24. (29) Oregon State (3-0)
  25. (8) Michigan State (2-1)
  26. (28) Washington State (3-0)
  27. (40) Maryland (3-0)
  28. (14) BYU (2-1)
  29. (34) UCLA (3-0)
  30. (36) Appalachian State (2-1)

Ten more: Western Kentucky (2-1), North Carolina (3-0), UAB (2-1), Boise State (2-1), Notre Dame (1-2), Texas A&M (2-1), Wisconsin (2-1), SMU (2-1), Florida State (3-0), Liberty (2-1)

Fitting a 12 Team Tournament

  • Georgia (1) – SEC
  • Ohio State (3) – Big Ten
  • Oklahoma State (4) – Big 12
  • Cincinnati (6) – American
  • Clemson (9) – ACC
  • Coastal Carolina (16) – Sun Belt
  • At Large 1: Alabama (2)
  • At Large 2: Oklahoma (5)
  • At Large 3: Michigan (7)
  • At Large 4: Arkansas (8)
  • At Large 5: Kentucky (10)
  • At Large 6: Ole Miss (11)

First Round Matchups

  • (12) Coastal Carolina at (5) Alabama
  • (11) Ole Miss at (6) Oklahoma
  • (10) Kentucky at (7) Michigan
  • (9) Clemson at (8) Arkansas
RankTeamWLRating
1Georgia301959.34
2Alabama301900.1
3Ohio State301840.01
4Oklahoma State301813.01
5Oklahoma301778.6
6Cincinnati211775.99
7Michigan301773.42
8Arkansas301771.41
9Clemson301766.88
10Kentucky301758.16
11Ole Miss301756.7
12Baylor211751.61
13Penn State301737.52
14NC State301729.21
15Pitt211705.18
16Coastal Carolina301699.26
17Utah211694.44
18Wake Forest301690.55
19Minnesota301688.28
20Louisiana211687.01
21Tennessee301683.1
22Iowa State301674.09
23Oregon211673
24Oregon State301665.27
25Michigan State211665.01
26Washington State301664.1
27Maryland301660.02
28BYU211656.45
29UCLA301640.02
30Appalachian State211637.17
31Western Kentucky211633.77
32North Carolina301632.34
33UAB211622.3
34Boise State211622.07
35Notre Dame121620.7
36Texas A&M211615.06
37Wisconsin211611.72
38SMU211607.32
39Florida State301605.88
40Liberty211605.14
41Air Force211603.49
42Iowa211594.34
43Texas Tech211593.61
44Texas211588.22
45UCF211578.7
46Syracuse301577.5
47USC301574.96
48East Carolina211573.37
49TCU201571.58
50Tulsa211571.5
51LSU211568.64
52Washington301565.18
53Mississippi State211561.53
54Wyoming311559.63
55Houston121556.83
56Kansas301556.53
57Memphis211552.23
58South Carolina121551.12
59UTSA121547.63
60Miami-FL211539.42
61Purdue121534.88
62Illinois211521.7
63Central Michigan121521.3
64Kansas State211517.38
65Western Michigan121515.57
66Marshall211515.3
67Eastern Michigan211513.38
68Tulane301513.34
69San Diego State121513.1
70Florida211512.83
71Indiana301511.39
72MTSU211508.79
73Fresno State121508.08
74Miami-OH121505.41
75Rutgers301503.97
76Army121498.81
77South Alabama211498.49
78Toledo211494.33
79Utah State121488.21
80Auburn211486.56
81California211484.87
82James Madison201484.13
83Virginia Tech211478.31
84Missouri211466.42
85Virginia211452.88
86Duke301451.91
87Rice211450.69
88Vanderbilt311447.67
89Louisville121443.59
90Georgia Southern211439.98
91UNLV211436.86
92Arizona State121431
93Troy121417.27
94Old Dominion121417.15
95West Virginia121417.1
96Nevada221415.62
97Georgia State031414.47
98North Texas221402.34
99San Jose State111389.13
100Kent State121383.47
101Northern Illinois121379.31
102Ball State021375.75
103Arizona211373.99
104Boston College121369.98
105Ohio121353.82
106Texas State121350
107New Mexico211349.13
108Bowling Green111348.74
109Georgia Tech121340.48
110Hawaii131339.5
111LA Monroe121330.14
112Florida Atlantic221321.01
113Southern Miss121318.07
114Arkansas State121312.2
115Navy021312.03
116Colorado031311.68
117Nebraska131305.31
118South Florida121303.43
119UTEP131302.9
120Louisiana Tech121297.22
121Stanford111291.92
122Akron121265.54
123Colorado State031242.3
124Northwestern121238.89
125Temple121236.65
126Buffalo031233.15
127Charlotte131222.01
128Connecticut131216
129New Mexico State041187.93
130Massachusetts121181.59
131FIU111159.45

It’s a Livin Thing – 2022 College Football ELO Week 2

· Leave a comment ·

Wow, that was something. Now, at the top Georgia rolled over mismatched Samford. But the rest? Looking at last week’s Top 25:

  • (2) Alabama escaped at (64) Texas
  • (4) Baylor loses at (22) BYU
  • (11) Houston loses at (49) Texas Tech
  • (15) Pitt loses at home to (43) Tennessee
  • (20) Notre Dame loses at home to (71) Marshall
  • (21) Wisconsin loses at home to (44) Washington State

Add upset home losses for Texas A&M and Nebraska and there was a ton of chaos going on. So – how does this shake up the top 30?

  1. (1) Georgia (2-0)
  2. (2) Alabama (2-0)
  3. (3) Ohio State (2-0)
  4. (6) Oklahoma State (2-0)
  5. (5) Louisiana (2-0)
  6. (7) Michigan (2-0)
  7. (13) Arkansas (2-0)
  8. (9) Michigan State (2-0)
  9. (8) Clemson (2-0)
  10. (10) Oklahoma (2-0)
  11. (17) Kentucky (2-0)
  12. (4) Baylor (1-1)
  13. (12) Cincinnati (1-1)
  14. (22) BYU (2-0)
  15. (14) Ole Miss (2-0)
  16. (16) Western Kentucky (2-0)
  17. (18) Coastal Carolina (2-0)
  18. (19) NC State (2-0)
  19. (11) Houston (1-1)
  20. (23) Minnesota (2-0)
  21. (43) Tennessee (2-0)
  22. (34) Wake Forest (2-0)
  23. (29) Penn State (2-0)
  24. (26) Air Force (2-0)
  25. (24) Utah (1-1)
  26. (38) Iowa State (2-0)
  27. (25) SMU (2-0)
  28. (44) Washington State (2-0)
  29. (40) Oregon State (2-0)
  30. (45) Mississippi State (2-0)

Next 10: North Carolina (3-0), Texas Tech (2-0), Liberty (2-0), UCLA (2-0), UTSA (1-1), Appalachian State (1-1), Kansas State (2-0), Boise State (1-1), Pitt (1-1), Maryland (2-0)

Fitting a 12-team tournament? (using a tiny bit of poetic license for at-larges if there is a reasonaby close unbeaten team)

Automatic Bids

  • SEC: Georgia (1)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (3)
  • Big 12: Oklahoma State (4)
  • Sun Belt: Louisiana (5)
  • ACC: Clemson (9)
  • American: Cincinnati (13)

At-Large

  • (2) Alabama
  • (6) Michigan
  • (7) Arkansas
  • (8) Michigan State
  • (10) Oklahoma
  • (11) Kentucky

First Round

  • (12) Cincinnati at (5) Alabama
  • (11) Kentucky at (6) Michigan
  • (10) Oklahoma at (7) Arkansas
  • (9) Clemson at (8) Michigan State

Here is the complete list:

Weekly ELO Ranking
Rank Team W L Rating
1 Georgia 2 0 1930.72
2 Alabama 2 0 1896.88
3 Ohio State 2 0 1827.82
4 Oklahoma State 2 0 1810.68
5 Louisiana 2 0 1804.07
6 Michigan 2 0 1769.95
7 Arkansas 2 0 1768.87
8 Michigan State 2 0 1762.2
9 Clemson 2 0 1761.08
10 Oklahoma 2 0 1759.59
11 Kentucky 2 0 1754.97
12 Baylor 1 1 1742.91
13 Cincinnati 1 1 1741.86
14 BYU 2 0 1737.62
15 Ole Miss 2 0 1729.5
16 Western Kentucky 2 0 1705.86
17 Coastal Carolina 2 0 1694.13
18 NC State 2 0 1691.42
19 Houston 1 1 1680.15
20 Minnesota 2 0 1678.16
21 Tennessee 2 0 1675.19
22 Wake Forest 2 0 1667.29
23 Penn State 2 0 1662.88
24 Air Force 2 0 1662
25 Utah 1 1 1660.47
26 Iowa State 2 0 1659.86
27 SMU 2 0 1658
28 Washington State 2 0 1656.39
29 Oregon State 2 0 1655.66
30 Mississippi State 2 0 1638.68
31 North Carolina 3 0 1632.34
32 Texas Tech 2 0 1631.41
33 Liberty 2 0 1628.4
34 UCLA 2 0 1622.51
35 UTSA 1 1 1620.43
36 Appalachian State 1 1 1619.96
37 Kansas State 2 0 1618.85
38 Boise State 1 1 1615.33
39 Pitt 1 1 1615.14
40 Maryland 2 0 1609.33
41 Western Michigan 1 1 1605.6
42 Wisconsin 1 1 1604.1
43 Marshall 2 0 1593.37
44 UAB 1 1 1593.32
45 Oregon 1 1 1591.83
46 Notre Dame 0 2 1588.42
47 Miami-FL 2 0 1586.19
48 South Carolina 1 1 1579.74
49 Fresno State 1 1 1576.7
50 Purdue 1 1 1576.22
51 TCU 2 0 1571.58
52 Texas A&M 1 1 1568.29
53 East Carolina 1 1 1564.19
54 Tulsa 1 1 1562.22
55 Auburn 2 0 1561.2
56 Iowa 1 1 1560.07
57 San Diego State 1 1 1547.07
58 Florida State 2 0 1543.26
59 Miami-OH 1 1 1539.55
60 Syracuse 2 0 1536.15
61 Memphis 1 1 1532.52
62 Arizona State 1 1 1526.73
63 Illinois 2 1 1521.7
64 California 2 0 1517.15
65 South Alabama 2 0 1516
66 Texas 1 1 1515.43
67 Central Michigan 0 2 1508.96
68 UCF 1 1 1508.02
69 Toledo 2 0 1506.52
70 USC 2 0 1506.35
71 Louisville 1 1 1506.21
72 Wyoming 2 1 1501.12
73 Florida 1 1 1495.88
74 MTSU 1 1 1495.56
75 LSU 1 1 1491.49
76 Utah State 1 2 1488.21
77 Army 0 2 1484.81
78 James Madison 2 0 1484.13
79 Georgia State 0 2 1483.67
80 North Texas 2 1 1483.2
81 Northern Illinois 1 1 1479.79
82 Rutgers 2 0 1471.68
83 Georgia Southern 2 0 1468.95
84 Washington 2 0 1467.99
85 Virginia Tech 1 1 1463.46
86 Old Dominion 1 1 1454.6
87 Missouri 1 1 1450.99
88 Nevada 2 1 1449.89
89 Indiana 2 0 1439.3
90 Troy 1 1 1434.48
91 Duke 2 0 1433.7
92 Kansas 2 0 1433.21
93 Eastern Michigan 1 1 1417.66
94 Virginia 1 1 1415.43
95 Tulane 2 0 1411.87
96 West Virginia 0 2 1395.02
97 Florida Atlantic 2 1 1391.7
98 San Jose State 1 1 1389.13
99 Ball State 0 2 1375.75
100 UTEP 1 2 1369.8
101 Ohio 1 1 1368.06
102 Georgia Tech 1 1 1367.69
103 Texas State 1 1 1358.7
104 Kent State 0 2 1356.93
105 Arizona 1 1 1356.29
106 UNLV 1 1 1356
107 Vanderbilt 2 1 1347.18
108 Boston College 0 2 1342.85
109 Northwestern 1 1 1334.33
110 Rice 1 1 1333.64
111 LA Monroe 1 1 1333.36
112 Arkansas State 1 1 1331.91
113 Nebraska 1 2 1324.32
114 Colorado 0 2 1321.79
115 South Florida 1 1 1320.38
116 Navy 0 2 1312.03
117 Hawaii 0 3 1311.87
118 Louisiana Tech 1 1 1303.03
119 Stanford 1 1 1291.92
120 New Mexico 1 1 1282.22
121 Southern Miss 0 2 1280.54
122 Akron 1 1 1273.45
123 Bowling Green 0 1 1270.68
124 Temple 1 1 1268.93
125 Colorado State 0 2 1250.01
126 Buffalo 0 2 1238.27
127 Connecticut 1 2 1219.47
128 New Mexico State 0 3 1195.55
129 FIU 1 1 1159.45
130 Charlotte 0 3 1152.8
131 Massachusetts 0 2 1117.77

It’s a Livin Thing – 2022 ELO College Football Rankings … Week 1

· 1 Comment ·

Well, I wasted plenty of virtual ink on the ELO method I am messing around with for this season. There were a lot of mismatches of course – but there were also some key games to move up and down the rankings. Some of the big highlights?

  • (12) Utah loses at (77) Florida
  • (4) Cincinnati loses at (18) Arkansas
  • (13) Notre Dame loses at (6) Ohio State
  • (1) Georgia blows out (39) Oregon
  • (25) Boise State loses to (66) Oregon State
  • (20) San Diego State loses to (123) Arizona

How did this move the Top 25? (parentheses are last week’s rankings)

  1. (1) Georgia (1-0)
  2. (2) Alabama (1-0)
  3. (6) Ohio State (1-0)
  4. (3) Baylor (1-0)
  5. (5) Louisiana (1-0)
  6. (7) Oklahoma State (1-0)
  7. (8) Michigan (1-0)
  8. (9) Clemson (1-0)
  9. (11) Michigan State (1-0)
  10. (10) Oklahoma (1-0)
  11. (15) Houston (1-0)
  12. (4) Cincinnati (0-1)
  13. (18) Arkansas (1-0)
  14. (14) Ole Miss (1-0)
  15. (16) Pittsburgh (1-0)
  16. (19) Western Kentucky (2-0)
  17. (22) Kentucky (1-0)
  18. (23) Coastal Carolina (1-0)
  19. (26) NC State (1-0)
  20. (13) Notre Dame (0-1)
  21. (17) Wisconsin (1-0)
  22. (30) BYU (1-0)
  23. (21) Minnesota (1-0)
  24. (12) Utah (0-1)
  25. (54) SMU (1-0)
  26. (29) Air Force (1-0)
  27. (31) Fresno State (1-0)
  28. (32) UAB (1-0)
  29. (49) Penn State (1-0)
  30. (33) Texas A&M (1-0)

Next 10: Fresno State (1-0), UAB (1-0), Texas A&M (1-0), SMU (1-0), Iowa (1-0), Penn State (1-0), Utah State (1-1), Wake Forest (1-0), Central Michigan (0-1), UCF (1-0)

Week 1 ELO Rankings
Rank Team W L Rating
1 Georgia 1 0 1929.54
2 Alabama 1 0 1882.71
3 Ohio State 1 0 1822.85
4 Baylor 1 0 1805.67
5 Louisiana 1 0 1794.53
6 Oklahoma State 1 0 1794.49
7 Michigan 1 0 1763.73
8 Clemson 1 0 1758.03
9 Michigan State 1 0 1757.02
10 Oklahoma 1 0 1750.94
11 Houston 1 0 1739.6
12 Cincinnati 0 1 1738.35
13 Arkansas 1 0 1737.59
14 Ole Miss 1 0 1725.74
15 Pitt 1 0 1708.62
16 Western Kentucky 2 0 1705.86
17 Kentucky 1 0 1700.73
18 Coastal Carolina 1 0 1690.9
19 NC State 1 0 1686.74
20 Notre Dame 0 1 1681.2
21 Wisconsin 1 0 1679.76
22 BYU 1 0 1674.85
23 Minnesota 1 0 1673.12
24 Utah 0 1 1654.88
25 SMU 1 0 1652.34
26 Air Force 1 0 1649.4
27 Fresno State 1 0 1648.59
28 UAB 1 0 1648.51
29 Penn State 1 0 1646.24
30 Texas A&M 1 0 1644.04
31 Utah State 1 1 1631.86
32 Iowa 1 0 1628.69
33 Central Michigan 0 1 1625.52
34 Wake Forest 1 0 1621.17
35 UCLA 1 0 1615.57
36 South Carolina 1 0 1611.02
37 UCF 1 0 1605.69
38 Iowa State 1 0 1591.24
39 Maryland 1 0 1588.23
40 Oregon State 1 0 1583.77
41 Oregon 0 1 1583.57
42 Kansas State 1 0 1581.83
43 Tennessee 1 0 1581.71
44 Washington State 1 0 1580.72
45 Mississippi State 1 0 1579.61
46 Nevada 2 0 1576.6
47 Boise State 0 1 1574.36
48 Liberty 1 0 1573.22
49 Texas Tech 1 0 1571.96
50 Miami-FL 1 0 1571.16
51 Purdue 0 1 1567.19
52 TCU 1 0 1562.31
53 Georgia State 0 1 1560.49
54 UTSA 0 1 1558.04
55 North Carolina 2 0 1555.53
56 Florida 1 0 1550.12
57 Western Michigan 0 1 1549.07
58 Army 0 1 1547.2
59 Appalachian State 0 1 1544.22
60 Florida State 2 0 1543.26
61 Arizona State 1 0 1542.93
62 San Diego State 0 1 1536.41
63 Auburn 1 0 1534.19
64 Texas 1 0 1529.6
65 Miami-OH 0 1 1529.31
66 Tulsa 0 1 1528.2
67 East Carolina 0 1 1516.32
68 Northern Illinois 1 0 1513.81
69 West Virginia 0 1 1506.09
70 Old Dominion 1 0 1502.47
71 Marshall 1 0 1500.59
72 Toledo 1 0 1497.12
73 California 1 0 1490.34
74 Missouri 1 0 1488.02
75 Wyoming 1 1 1487.74
76 Syracuse 1 0 1484.98
77 LSU 0 1 1476.9
78 Illinois 1 1 1470.95
79 James Madison 1 0 1468.92
80 North Texas 1 1 1467.91
81 Virginia 1 0 1466.18
82 Rutgers 1 0 1455.38
83 Washington 1 0 1451.34
84 Memphis 0 1 1449.85
85 USC 1 0 1434.35
86 Ball State 0 1 1432.28
87 MTSU 0 1 1430.66
88 Eastern Michigan 1 0 1427.19
89 Northwestern 1 0 1424.32
90 Indiana 1 0 1422.23
91 Virginia Tech 0 1 1419.28
92 San Jose State 1 0 1416.14
93 Troy 0 1 1415.37
94 Arizona 1 0 1415.36
95 Louisville 0 1 1408.53
96 Georgia Southern 1 0 1408.24
97 South Alabama 1 0 1399.44
98 Navy 0 1 1394.7
99 Vanderbilt 2 0 1393.31
100 Tulane 1 0 1389.14
101 Boston College 0 1 1387.03
102 Nebraska 1 1 1385.03
103 Ohio 1 0 1384.7
104 UNLV 1 0 1382.81
105 Florida Atlantic 1 1 1366.32
106 Kent State 0 1 1365.58
107 Stanford 1 0 1363.92
108 Bowling Green 0 0 1344.27
109 UTEP 0 2 1343.99
110 Duke 1 0 1343.71
111 Georgia Tech 0 1 1340.98
112 Arkansas State 1 0 1336.88
113 Colorado 0 1 1334.39
114 Buffalo 0 1 1330.52
115 Texas State 0 1 1328.4
116 New Mexico 1 0 1323.19
117 Kansas 1 0 1322.15
118 Hawaii 0 2 1318.09
119 Colorado State 0 1 1314.91
120 Rice 0 1 1299.02
121 LA Monroe 0 1 1298.7
122 Southern Miss 0 1 1295.57
123 South Florida 0 1 1284.88
124 Akron 1 0 1278.64
125 Connecticut 1 1 1270.64
126 Louisiana Tech 0 1 1262.5
127 Temple 0 1 1225.82
128 New Mexico State 0 2 1221.36
129 FIU 1 0 1189.75
130 Charlotte 0 2 1173.91
131 Massachusetts 0 1 1127.17

Fitting a 12 Team Tournament

Automatic Bids

  • SEC: Georgia (1)
  • Big Ten: Ohio State (3)
  • Big 12: Baylor (4)
  • Sun Belt: Louisiana (5)
  • ACC: Clemson (8)
  • American: Houston (11)

At Large

  • Alabama (2)
  • Oklahoma State (6)
  • Michigan (7)
  • Michigan State (9)
  • Oklahoma (10)
  • Arkansas (13)

First Round:

  • (12) Arkansas at (5) Alabama
  • (11) Houston at (6) Oklahoma State
  • (10) Oklahoma at (7) Michigan State
  • (9) Michigan State at (8) Clemson

It’s A Livin Thing – 2022 College Football Rankings

· 4 Comments ·

Well, in this space we’ve messed around a lot with the Bradley-Terry rating system to try to rank the FBS college football teams. I liked it – it made me happy. However, while I defend the mathematical integrity of the system, with so few games played, the error within seasons was consistently extremely high. To be able to get more samples, you need more games. In college football that means you need to look at previous seasons. The seasons are new – but not really. The teams do enter the season with some parts of the year before.

Based on this, I am trying out a version of the ELO Rating system, which is used for chess and is going to be implemented in the future for the UEFA Champions League. A good nuts and bolts discussion of the method can be found here – but here are some of the highlights:

  • It is an incremental rating system. So teams are adjusted each week. If a team grows during the season (or proves more) it will show in the ratings.
  • The weekly rankings are used to determine win likelihood. Winners gain points, losers lose points – but favorites get less credit for winning and lose more for losing. Put another way, defeating teams above you move you up faster.
  • Typically these models have win values as low as 3 (for chess or baseball). College Football with its short season requires a more volatile model. So we go with 75 points with a multiplier based on the natural log of the margin of victory. Testing this across 22 seasons of results, this fits with how we perceive the teams pretty well.
  • We can do preseason ranks! The beginning ranking of each team is the previous year’s ending ranking regressed to the mean (1500) by 1/3. Basically we are saying about 1/3 of a team’s success-failure is turned over each year. It is a decent compromise I think – an acknowledgement that these teams are NOT starting as equal in the eyes of the world. Any new FBS team starts with the 25th percentile team rating.
  • 1500 is the average rating. I looked at all the results from 2000 through 2021, starting with “all teams being the same” in 2000 and proceeding through now.

Here is the preseason Top 25 (with last year’s W/L)

  1. Georgia (14-1)
  2. Alabama (13-2)
  3. Baylor (12-2)
  4. Cincinnati (13-1)
  5. Louisiana (13-1) <- look at last 3 years record and this is not so weird
  6. Ohio State (11-2)
  7. Oklahoma State(12-2)
  8. Michigan (12-2)
  9. Clemson (10-3)
  10. Oklahoma (11-2)
  11. Michigan State (11-2)
  12. Utah (10-4)
  13. Notre Dame (11-2)
  14. Ole Miss (10-3)
  15. Houston (12-2)
  16. Pitt (11-3)
  17. Wisconsin (9-4)
  18. Arkansas (9-4)
  19. Western Kentucky (9-5)
  20. San Diego State (12-2)
  21. Minnesota (9-4)
  22. Kentucky (10-3)
  23. Coastal Carolina (11-2)
  24. Central Michigan (9-4)
  25. Boise State (7-5)
  26. NC State (9-3)
  27. Utah State (11-3)
  28. Purdue (9-4)
  29. Air Force (10-3)
  30. BYU (10-3)

#5 is awfully high for Louisiana-Lafayette, but this is the model giving a team credit for only losing 5 games over the last 3 seasons. But there is just not a lot of upside in their schedule – but who knows what will happen?

I do have rankings for each week, and this week’s rankings will get burped out in another post.

2021 College Football Final Rankings and Tournament Fitting

· 1 Comment ·

Well, for once – I got the same Top 4 the Committee likely will. If we’re dealing with a 4-team tournament with some primacy for conference champions (some!) and use the precedents established since 2014, Georgia-Alabama-Michigan-Cincinnati is a clear result. Anyway, here are my rankings – I used a Bradley-Terry model where results are weighted 70% for whether the team won and 30% for margin of victory. I assume a lognormal distribution for the victory margins so larger wins have diminishing marginal return.

Rank Team W L Rtg
1 Georgia 12 1 1542.111
2 Alabama 12 1 1318.792
3 Michigan 12 1 1275.144
4 Cincinnati 13 0 989.2348
5 Ohio State 10 2 947.6711
6 Notre Dame 11 1 673.616
7 Ole Miss 10 2 569.9788
8 Michigan State 10 2 560.2635
9 Oklahoma State 11 2 510.554
10 Pittsburgh 11 2 497.515
11 Baylor 11 2 475.6873
12 Wisconsin 8 4 440.528
13 Penn State 7 5 412.945
14 Arkansas 8 4 397.7318
15 Clemson 9 3 397.2243
16 Iowa 10 3 378.8301
17 Oklahoma 10 2 377.283
18 Wake Forest 10 3 355.011
19 Purdue 8 4 352.4661
20 Texas A&M 8 4 346.7994
21 NC State 9 3 336.8678
22 Utah 10 3 331.4708
23 Kentucky 9 3 291.116
24 Auburn 6 6 288.5009
25 Minnesota 8 4 280.3903
26 BYU 10 2 279.6677
27 Mississippi State 7 5 276.8592
28 Tennessee 7 5 257.9229
29 Houston 11 2 257.566
30 Iowa State 7 5 245.4181
31 Oregon 10 3 241.0568
32 UTSA 12 1 234.8766
33 Army 8 3 221.0776
34 LSU 6 6 217.1187
35 Appalachian State 10 3 213.8836
36 Miami-FL 7 5 208.4756
37 Louisiana 12 1 202.975
38 Boise State 7 5 197.8165
39 Air Force 8 3 189.4849
40 San Diego State 11 2 188.8045
41 Kansas State 7 5 187.6265
42 UCLA 8 4 172.5549
43 Fresno State 9 3 172.51
44 Maryland 6 6 162.156
45 Florida 6 6 161.1614
46 Western Kentucky 8 5 160.2666
47 Virginia 6 6 157.9867
48 Nevada 8 4 156.9019
49 North Carolina 6 6 155.8882
50 Louisville 6 6 155.5281
51 SMU 8 4 154.9408
52 Texas 5 7 151.7687
53 Nebraska 3 9 151.4617
54 West Virginia 6 6 148.4782
55 Arizona State 8 4 143.506
56 Utah State 10 3 142.7469
57 Illinois 5 7 141.1069
58 Oregon State 7 5 132.4185
59 Coastal Carolina 10 2 131.7849
60 South Carolina 6 6 126.7897
61 Washington State 7 5 125.5055
62 Texas Tech 6 6 122.7546
63 Virginia Tech 6 6 122.6132
64 Northern Illinois 10 3 122.268
65 UAB 8 4 116.8458
66 UCF 8 4 116.7661
67 Florida State 5 7 114.714
68 Central Michigan 8 4 114.0551
69 Rutgers 5 7 113.8425
70 Liberty 7 5 113.2017
71 Missouri 6 6 112.2654
72 East Carolina 7 5 111.4839
73 Syracuse 5 7 107.0232
74 Boston College 6 6 100
75 Marshall 7 5 99.11268
76 Western Michigan 7 5 98.18761
77 Toledo 7 5 93.81419
78 TCU 5 7 88.86969
79 Miami-OH 6 6 88.80395
80 Georgia State 7 5 88.19083
81 Tulsa 6 6 84.08245
82 Memphis 6 6 78.41362
83 Georgia Tech 3 9 71.75781
84 Ball State 6 6 70.67079
85 Indiana 2 10 69.40019
86 Eastern Michigan 7 5 68.12039
87 Kent State 7 6 67.51779
88 California 5 7 66.70162
89 USC 4 8 61.90411
90 Navy 3 8 61.30318
91 UTEP 7 5 55.47675
92 North Texas 6 6 55.30717
93 Northwestern 3 9 53.70231
94 Old Dominion 6 6 51.31552
95 MTSU 6 6 51.13045
96 Hawaii 6 7 48.32948
97 Colorado 4 8 47.88856
98 Stanford 3 9 47.60946
99 Washington 4 8 47.25645
100 Tulane 2 10 45.51491
101 Florida Atlantic 5 7 43.21701
102 Wyoming 5 7 42.92941
103 Troy 5 7 39.28554
104 San Jose State 5 7 38.79852
105 South Alabama 5 7 38.15858
106 South Florida 2 10 34.14912
107 Colorado State 3 9 33.55807
108 LA Monroe 4 8 33.24233
109 Buffalo 4 8 32.97645
110 Rice 4 8 32.21217
111 Duke 3 9 31.23477
112 Louisiana Tech 3 9 30.8129
113 UNLV 2 10 30.24657
114 Bowling Green 4 8 29.34802
115 Charlotte 5 7 28.39174
116 Kansas 2 10 28.33853
117 Ohio 3 9 25.82674
118 Georgia Southern 3 9 24.98595
119 Texas State 4 8 21.64887
120 Temple 3 9 21.56373
121 Arizona 1 11 20.39626
122 New Mexico 3 9 20.33918
123 Southern Miss 3 9 19.23054
124 Arkansas State 2 10 18.15005
125 Vanderbilt 2 10 17.36088
126 Akron 2 10 14.00195
127 Other 12 104 13.7638
128 New Mexico State 2 10 12.67793
129 FIU 1 11 8.541504
130 Connecticut 1 11 6.797627
131 Massachusetts 1 11 5.237565

Michigan interestingly falls from #2 to #3 despite a 42-3 win over Iowa. But Alabama beating the #1 team decisively will do that. Georgia had a huge lead in rating entering the weekend so they stay at the top.

Musings About a 16 Team Tournament

Honestly, a “just” 16 team tournament is hard to do. The rankings above are mathematically sound – the model converges after all – but there is a lot of error. This makes sense, college football has so much less interconference competition than basketball, on top just a smaller population of games. What I’ve settled on for the committee of one is using a framework similar to the UEFA Champions League.

With the Champions’ League – countries get various numbers of guaranteed slots based on previous performance. What I did was look at my own rankings from 2008-2019 (I skipped 2020 since the pandemic season had almost no interconference play) and gave the team that was #1 50 points, #2 49 points and so on for the Top 50. Then I used the team’s 3-year performance on a rolling basis and their current conference affiliation. So the slots for 2021 are based on the performance of the conferences’ 2017-2019 performance. I aggregated the non-Power 5 teams into one category “Other”. This allows us to handle the independents as well. Additionally, if we used this framework – most of the lower conferences on their own would not merit a bid.

An obvious alrernative is to just give 10 automatic bids and 6 at-large. But this goes into my own feelings about what sort of tournament do we actually want. Do we really want a first round of matchups which would have been “guarantee games” in September? The aforementioned method I think balances the interests of entertainment with Group of 5 schools having a real shot to prove themselves.

The 16 Team Tournament from the Committee of One

Looking at 2017-2019 performance of the teams in conferences this year – the allocation of teams looks like. The conference champ automatically gets one of the bids:

  • ACC (2 teams): Pittsburgh (10), Clemson (15)
  • Big 12 (2 teams): Oklahoma State (9), Baylor (11)
  • Big Ten (3 teams): Michigan (3), Ohio State (5), Michigan State (8)
  • Pac 12 (2 teams): Utah (22), Oregon (31)
  • SEC (4 teams): Georgia (1), Alabama (2), Ole Miss (7), Arkansas (14)
  • Other (3 teams): Cincinnati (4), Notre Dame (6), BYU (26)

Now, in the 16-team field, I’d definitely do home field for the first round before going to bowl games. Also, we’ll tweak seeds a bit to make sure that 1) the top 4 seeds go to conference champs or independents, 2) teams in the same conference cannot meet in the first round. Controlling for that, the bracket looks like:

  • (16) Oregon at (1) Alabama
  • (9) Oklahoma State at (8) Michigan State
  • (12) Baylor at (5) Georgia
  • (13) Clemson at (4) Notre Dame
  • (14) Utah at (3) Cincinnati
  • (11) Arkansas at (6) Ohio State
  • (10) Pittsburgh at (7) Ole Miss
  • (15) BYU at (2) Michigan

Wow, I did a good job!

A Committee of One – 2021 The 16 Team Playoff UCL Model Heading into the Conference Champioships

· Leave a comment ·

Well, I tried this once. But after looking at the data from 2008-2019 and tinkering with the share of victory value split between “winning” vs “margin of victory”, I think the rankings were not giving enough credit to margin of victory. But with some time on my hands, I tweaked the rankings to give more credit – where 30% of the “victory points” is based on margin of victory (as opposed to 10% previously). With that in mind, the rankings entering Championship Week are as follows.

Rank Team W L Rtg RRWin
1 Georgia 12 0 2463.952 93.886%
2 Michigan 11 1 1084.907 87.568%
3 Alabama 11 1 940.382 86.334%
4 Ohio State 10 2 926.6521 86.114%
5 Cincinnati 12 0 924.2726 86.160%
6 Notre Dame 11 1 658.174 82.154%
7 Oklahoma State 11 1 565.3639 79.920%
8 Michigan State 10 2 543.7959 79.177%
9 Ole Miss 10 2 530.3689 79.078%
10 Wisconsin 8 4 432.2224 76.170%
11 Wake Forest 10 2 417.146 75.600%
12 Iowa 10 2 408.5669 75.181%
13 Baylor 10 2 406.6818 75.246%
14 Clemson 9 3 406.4646 75.023%
15 Penn State 7 5 402.4144 74.814%
16 Pittsburgh 10 2 399.863 74.941%
17 Arkansas 8 4 381.4562 74.145%
18 Oklahoma 10 2 367.2492 73.446%
19 Purdue 8 4 349.6486 72.909%
20 NC State 9 3 338.5316 72.059%
21 Texas A&M 8 4 325.9778 71.423%
22 Kentucky 9 3 290.264 69.188%
23 Utah 9 3 287.8943 69.593%
24 Oregon 10 2 279.6392 68.937%
25 Minnesota 8 4 278.6884 68.741%
26 Auburn 6 6 277.6441 68.510%
27 Mississippi State 7 5 261.1202 67.506%
28 Houston 11 1 260.6241 67.802%
29 BYU 10 2 259.2455 67.703%
30 San Diego State 11 1 248.5249 67.030%
31 Tennessee 7 5 247.364 66.639%
32 Iowa State 7 5 240.8667 66.242%
33 Appalachian State 10 2 235.8835 65.988%
34 Army 8 3 223.2166 64.610%
35 UTSA 11 1 212.6154 64.244%
36 LSU 6 6 206.0863 63.275%
37 Miami-FL 7 5 199.7599 62.788%
38 Boise State 7 5 196.1104 62.609%
39 Air Force 8 3 187.3145 61.461%
40 Kansas State 7 5 182.4565 61.308%
41 Fresno State 9 3 178.5761 60.888%
42 Louisiana 11 1 173.116 60.266%
43 UCLA 8 4 170.6891 59.916%
44 Western Kentucky 8 4 169.6787 59.582%
45 Maryland 6 6 160.5955 58.638%
46 Nevada 8 4 157.7252 58.432%
47 Florida 6 6 157.3484 58.202%
48 Louisville 6 6 155.8044 58.051%
49 Virginia 6 6 153.7015 57.673%
50 North Carolina 6 6 152.5132 57.717%
51 SMU 8 4 151.5608 57.633%
52 Nebraska 3 9 148.6296 57.127%
53 Texas 5 7 145.5792 56.571%
54 West Virginia 6 6 144.4584 56.287%
55 Arizona State 8 4 139.0787 56.060%
56 Illinois 5 7 138.4929 55.405%
57 Coastal Carolina 10 2 130.0893 54.709%
58 Oregon State 7 5 129.5212 54.234%
59 South Carolina 6 6 125.5351 53.716%
60 Texas Tech 6 6 119.8012 52.800%
61 Washington State 7 5 119.0602 52.886%
62 Virginia Tech 6 6 117.913 52.338%
63 UCF 8 4 114.8783 52.106%
64 Florida State 5 7 114.6541 51.997%
65 UAB 8 4 114.5117 51.922%
66 Rutgers 5 7 111.3029 51.592%
67 East Carolina 7 5 110.903 51.307%
68 Missouri 6 6 110.4669 51.455%
69 Central Michigan 8 4 110.04 51.191%
70 Liberty 7 5 109.1172 50.999%
71 Northern Illinois 9 3 106.4931 50.598%
72 Utah State 9 3 105.6927 50.545%
73 Syracuse 5 7 105.5721 50.117%
74 Boston College 6 6 100 49.270%
75 Marshall 7 5 99.03804 49.342%
76 Western Michigan 7 5 93.52333 47.958%
77 Toledo 7 5 89.39407 47.027%
78 Miami-OH 6 6 87.37183 46.823%
79 Georgia State 7 5 86.20546 46.446%
80 TCU 5 7 85.31586 45.935%
81 Tulsa 6 6 82.99929 45.571%
82 Memphis 6 6 76.45131 43.930%
83 Kent State 7 5 72.76096 43.252%
84 Georgia Tech 3 9 68.9466 41.902%
85 Indiana 2 10 68.75892 41.676%
86 Ball State 6 6 67.79753 41.631%
87 USC 4 7 67.28326 41.313%
88 Eastern Michigan 7 5 65.18442 40.829%
89 Navy 3 8 60.43138 39.323%
90 California 4 7 58.84305 38.856%
91 UTEP 7 5 53.89699 37.447%
92 North Texas 6 6 53.73836 37.388%
93 Northwestern 3 9 52.78975 36.667%
94 Old Dominion 6 6 50.88334 36.600%
95 MTSU 6 6 50.09962 36.276%
96 Hawaii 6 7 47.12825 34.655%
97 Colorado 4 8 47.01068 34.645%
98 Stanford 3 9 46.57291 34.632%
99 Washington 4 8 45.99151 34.268%
100 Tulane 2 10 44.5603 33.613%
101 Florida Atlantic 5 7 42.57852 32.845%
102 Wyoming 5 7 40.66241 32.405%
103 Troy 5 7 38.11713 30.837%
104 San Jose State 5 7 37.93782 30.821%
105 South Alabama 5 7 36.9172 30.712%
106 South Florida 2 10 33.47286 28.604%
107 LA Monroe 4 8 32.25008 28.267%
108 Buffalo 4 8 32.1132 28.018%
109 Colorado State 3 9 32.09823 28.001%
110 Rice 4 8 31.50406 27.903%
111 Duke 3 9 30.41468 27.143%
112 Louisiana Tech 3 9 29.96151 26.898%
113 UNLV 2 10 29.30955 26.792%
114 Bowling Green 4 8 28.54838 26.371%
115 Charlotte 5 7 27.94141 26.085%
116 Kansas 2 10 27.4828 25.699%
117 Ohio 3 9 25.21996 24.299%
118 Georgia Southern 3 9 24.17714 23.542%
119 Temple 3 9 21.21741 22.049%
120 Texas State 4 8 20.85667 21.410%
121 Arizona 1 11 20.14231 21.090%
122 New Mexico 3 9 19.53762 20.747%
123 Southern Miss 3 9 18.64201 19.958%
124 Arkansas State 2 10 17.61639 19.287%
125 Vanderbilt 2 10 16.94015 18.606%
126 Akron 2 10 13.73047 16.251%
127 Other 12 104 13.37038 15.777%
128 New Mexico State 2 10 12.20675 14.760%
129 FIU 1 11 8.357579 11.217%
130 Connecticut 1 11 6.623841 9.107%
131 Massachusetts 1 11 5.08345 7.331%

This is all fine and good, but how can we use this to fit a 16 team tournament? In the previous attempts, I was inspired by the UEFA Champions League soccer competition, which assigns slots to countries based on past performance. So I looked at the modeling I’ve done since 2008 – including bowl games – to allocate slots between the Power 5 and “Everybody else”. I assigned 50 points for the #1 team, 49, 48 … all the way to 1 point for the 50th team. Looking at 3-year averages (UEFA uses a 5 year average, but there is less turnover among soccer teams) the conference allocation for this year would be (based on the 2017-2019 averages, I skipped 2020 for obvious reasons).

  • ACC (2 berths): Wake Forest (11), Clemson (14)
  • Big 12 (2): Oklahoma State (7), Baylor (13)
  • Big Ten (3): Michigan (2), Ohio State (4), Michigan State (8)
  • Pac 12 (2): Utah (23), Oregon (24)
  • SEC (4): Georgia (1), Alabama (3), Ole Miss (9), Arkansas (17)
  • Other (3): Cincinnati (5), Notre Dame (6), Houston (28)

Next, we moved Cincinnati to #3 due to being a conference champion/leader, and Notre Dame to #4 as an Independent. The 16 team field is set – assuming the first round is at home field (which it should be):

  • (16) Houston at (1) Georgia
  • (9) Ole Miss at (8) Michigan State
  • (12) Clemson at (5) Alabama
  • (13) Arkansas at (4) Notre Dame
  • (14) Utah at (3) Cincinnati
  • (11) Baylor at (6) Ohio State
  • (10) Wake Forest at (7) Oklahoma State
  • (15) Oregon at (2) Michigan

Going back to 2019, the berths would have looked like this:

  • ACC (3 berths): Clemson (3), Virginia (36), Virginia Tech (47)
  • Big 12 (2): Oklahoma (7), Baylor (16)
  • Big Ten (3): Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (6), Penn State (9)
  • Pac 12 (2): Oregon (11), Utah (14)
  • SEC (4): LSU (2), Alabama (4), Georgia (5), Auburn (8)
  • Other (2): Notre Dame (13), Memphis (15)

The 16 team field would be:

  • (16) Virginia Tech at (1) Ohio State
  • (9) Penn State at (8) Auburn
  • (12) Utah at (5) Alabama
  • (13) Memphis at (4) Oklahoma
  • (14) Baylor at (3) Clemson
  • (11) Notre Dame at (6) Georgia
  • (10) Oregon at (7) Wisconsin
  • (15) Virginia at (2) LSU