Well, it has been a minute. The Committee of One released its first rankings using the tried and true model a few weeks ago to the usual fanfare I have gotten used to. In the intervening weeks, we had a lot of interesting things happen.
- Georgia beat Tennessee in an undefeated battle
- Tennessee got stunned by South Carolina
- Alabama lost to LSU and thus its place in the Final Four (at least based on committee history)
- Michigan and TCU BARELY survive scares against Illinois and Baylor, respectively.
- Oregon does NOT survive a scare against their arch rivals at Washington
- Clemson got blown away by Notre Dame but it might not end up mattering
Anyway, after all of this – how do the rankings look?
| Rank | Team | W | L | Rating | RR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgia | 11 | 0 | 2402.39 | 97.25 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 11 | 0 | 1714.33 | 96.52 |
| 3 | TCU | 11 | 0 | 580.04 | 92.7 |
| 4 | Michigan | 11 | 0 | 579.28 | 92.69 |
| 5 | Tennessee | 9 | 2 | 362.38 | 90.07 |
| 6 | Alabama | 9 | 2 | 343.1 | 89.72 |
| 7 | LSU | 9 | 2 | 230.71 | 86.84 |
| 8 | Clemson | 10 | 1 | 222.36 | 86.54 |
| 9 | Penn State | 9 | 2 | 212.81 | 86.18 |
| 10 | USC | 10 | 1 | 208.93 | 86.02 |
| 11 | Oregon | 9 | 2 | 178.79 | 84.66 |
| 12 | Kansas State | 8 | 3 | 145.8 | 82.73 |
| 13 | Texas | 7 | 4 | 145.66 | 82.72 |
| 14 | Utah | 8 | 3 | 114.67 | 80.23 |
| 15 | Florida State | 8 | 3 | 100 | 78.69 |
| 16 | Ole Miss | 8 | 3 | 89.22 | 77.36 |
| 17 | Mississippi State | 7 | 4 | 82.77 | 76.45 |
| 18 | Oklahoma State | 7 | 4 | 81.78 | 76.3 |
| 19 | Notre Dame | 8 | 3 | 81.13 | 76.2 |
| 20 | Washington | 9 | 2 | 70.72 | 74.47 |
| 21 | UCLA | 8 | 3 | 68.92 | 74.14 |
| 22 | South Carolina | 7 | 4 | 64.53 | 73.27 |
| 23 | Oregon State | 8 | 3 | 62.85 | 72.92 |
| 24 | Tulane | 9 | 2 | 59.95 | 72.29 |
| 25 | Texas Tech | 6 | 5 | 56.79 | 71.55 |
Ten more: Louisville (7-4), Florida (6-5), Baylor (6-5), Arkansas (6-5), Kentucky (6-5), Kansas (6-5), Wake Forst (7-4), Oklahoma (6-5), North Carolina (9-2), Washington State (7-4)
The way the committee has historically worked for a 4 team event is really focusing on numbers of losses among Power 5 teams. As such, I’d expect Georgia-Ohio State-TCU-Michigan as your Final 4 when the rankings are announced on Tuesday. That said, my rankings are superior – both manifestly and as a real assessment of resumes and such. The error bars are high of course (such small samples) but if you think of it like a NET rating in basketball, the utility is clear. While the model seems hard on North Carolina, their resume really is bereft of quality. Anyway, the rankings are much more useful when tryng to fit a 12-team playoff.
Automatic Bids
- SEC: Georgia (1)
- Big Ten: Ohio State (2)
- Big 12: TCU (3)
- ACC: Clemson (8)
- Pac-12: USC (10)
- AAC: Tulane (24)
At Large Bids – Clear
- Michigan (3) – 92.69%
- Tennessee (5) – 90.07%
- Alabama (6) – 89.72%
The Bubble
- LSU (7) – 86.84%
- Penn State (9) – 86.18%
- Oregon (11) – 84.66%
- Kansas State (12) – 82.73%
- Texas (13) – 82.72%
The drop is between Texas and Utah (80.23%) so this is really the field for 3 teams. Looking at the field, there seems to be enough separation between Penn State and Oregon and the other two teams. Texas has 4 losses, but they were all tough ones against good teams, so their resume has more cookies than North Carolina’s. I think the top 3 teams here is pretty easy this time.
A 12-team bracket
Byes: Georgia, Ohio State, TCU, Clemson
First Round (using seeds in parenthesis – so 12 is 12th seed not 12th in rankings)
- (12) Tulane at (5) Michigan
- (11) Oregon at (6) Tennessee
- (10) USC at (7) Alabama
- (9) Penn State at (8) LSU
With the Thanksgiving Holiday, maybe we will go into the wayback machine to see how the rankings would have looked in some previous fun years.
Meadow Muffins of the Mind 