Week 10 was a lot of near misses to unranked teams – or in the Michigan State case, not missing an upset at all. The College Football Playoff committee had its beauty pageant verdict earlier this week, but why use that when you can use a correct answer like mine? Now – I can see the committee ranking Oregon so highly – it’s win at Ohio State looks better each week. But can we really yada-yada past their underwhelming Pac-12 results? I don’t know. But the Pac-12 is not impressing the committee of one here.
Rank | Team | W | L | Rtg | RRWin |
1 | Georgia | 9 | 0 | 14072.83 | 97.514% |
2 | Cincinnati | 9 | 0 | 9889.144 | 96.570% |
3 | Oklahoma | 9 | 0 | 2892.478 | 90.651% |
4 | Notre Dame | 8 | 1 | 2767.524 | 90.529% |
5 | Michigan | 8 | 1 | 2511.179 | 89.606% |
6 | Alabama | 8 | 1 | 2178.909 | 88.820% |
7 | Michigan State | 8 | 1 | 2049.192 | 87.923% |
8 | Ohio State | 7 | 1 | 1803.644 | 87.258% |
9 | Oklahoma State | 8 | 1 | 1722.034 | 86.435% |
10 | UTSA | 9 | 0 | 1512.444 | 85.771% |
11 | Wisconsin | 6 | 3 | 1295.034 | 84.197% |
12 | Auburn | 6 | 3 | 1175.488 | 82.858% |
13 | Iowa | 7 | 2 | 1172.931 | 83.174% |
14 | Ole Miss | 7 | 2 | 1128.639 | 82.551% |
15 | Penn State | 6 | 3 | 1024.991 | 81.423% |
16 | Texas A&M | 7 | 2 | 908.3757 | 80.257% |
17 | Wake Forest | 8 | 1 | 898.3946 | 80.290% |
18 | Purdue | 6 | 3 | 897.6976 | 80.444% |
19 | Arkansas | 6 | 3 | 884.5437 | 80.172% |
20 | Baylor | 7 | 2 | 809.124 | 79.154% |
21 | Oregon | 8 | 1 | 699.3062 | 77.456% |
22 | Iowa State | 6 | 3 | 662.9012 | 76.588% |
23 | BYU | 8 | 2 | 513.7728 | 73.452% |
24 | Kansas State | 6 | 3 | 482.8367 | 72.783% |
25 | NC State | 7 | 2 | 436.3198 | 71.039% |
26 | Clemson | 6 | 3 | 408.0837 | 69.946% |
27 | Texas | 4 | 5 | 393.9334 | 69.493% |
28 | Pittsburgh | 7 | 2 | 390.0867 | 69.605% |
29 | Virginia | 6 | 3 | 388.7883 | 69.413% |
30 | Miami-FL | 5 | 4 | 370.7989 | 68.832% |
31 | Appalachian State | 7 | 2 | 347.9817 | 68.046% |
32 | San Diego State | 8 | 1 | 329.6321 | 67.347% |
33 | Maryland | 5 | 4 | 329.3797 | 67.256% |
34 | Louisiana | 8 | 1 | 323.707 | 67.044% |
35 | Mississippi State | 5 | 4 | 321.4673 | 66.428% |
36 | Kentucky | 6 | 3 | 320.1067 | 66.212% |
37 | Houston | 8 | 1 | 317.1082 | 66.763% |
38 | Minnesota | 6 | 3 | 310.8596 | 65.957% |
39 | Boise State | 5 | 4 | 281.9091 | 65.022% |
40 | West Virginia | 4 | 5 | 264.1637 | 63.407% |
41 | Tennessee | 5 | 4 | 255.2419 | 63.120% |
42 | Nevada | 7 | 2 | 253.4011 | 63.351% |
43 | Northern Illinois | 7 | 2 | 242.648 | 62.595% |
44 | Army | 5 | 3 | 242.0203 | 62.021% |
45 | Illinois | 4 | 6 | 238.8305 | 61.844% |
46 | Utah | 6 | 3 | 234.1067 | 61.981% |
47 | Coastal Carolina | 8 | 1 | 233.5862 | 62.068% |
48 | Fresno State | 7 | 3 | 221.0159 | 61.266% |
49 | LSU | 4 | 5 | 213.7346 | 60.331% |
50 | North Carolina | 5 | 4 | 210.2789 | 60.330% |
51 | Rutgers | 4 | 5 | 197.6741 | 59.498% |
52 | Texas Tech | 5 | 4 | 195.1991 | 58.850% |
53 | Utah State | 7 | 2 | 195.0467 | 59.244% |
54 | SMU | 7 | 2 | 189.0518 | 58.692% |
55 | UCF | 6 | 3 | 174.5578 | 57.228% |
56 | South Carolina | 5 | 4 | 169.4932 | 56.752% |
57 | Louisville | 4 | 5 | 166.8515 | 56.450% |
58 | TCU | 4 | 5 | 159.7197 | 55.710% |
59 | Air Force | 5 | 3 | 157.8957 | 55.394% |
60 | Florida | 4 | 5 | 154.318 | 55.251% |
61 | Indiana | 2 | 7 | 153.9462 | 54.896% |
62 | Arizona State | 6 | 3 | 138.0791 | 53.792% |
63 | Syracuse | 5 | 4 | 128.2508 | 52.053% |
64 | Nebraska | 3 | 7 | 126.4212 | 52.145% |
65 | Liberty | 7 | 3 | 122.0286 | 51.355% |
66 | UCLA | 5 | 4 | 120.2861 | 51.361% |
67 | Kent State | 5 | 4 | 110.1536 | 50.035% |
68 | Western Kentucky | 5 | 4 | 107.0098 | 49.171% |
69 | Eastern Michigan | 6 | 3 | 101.383 | 48.553% |
70 | Virginia Tech | 4 | 5 | 101.0273 | 48.151% |
71 | Boston College | 5 | 4 | 100 | 48.226% |
72 | Washington State | 5 | 4 | 97.19499 | 47.964% |
73 | East Carolina | 5 | 4 | 89.58932 | 46.332% |
74 | Marshall | 6 | 3 | 84.69532 | 45.907% |
75 | Memphis | 5 | 4 | 83.7091 | 45.354% |
76 | Georgia State | 4 | 5 | 80.10334 | 44.917% |
77 | Western Michigan | 5 | 4 | 79.44881 | 44.642% |
78 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 6 | 77.85833 | 44.160% |
79 | Oregon State | 5 | 4 | 71.9188 | 42.636% |
80 | Ball State | 5 | 4 | 70.65691 | 42.707% |
81 | Florida State | 3 | 6 | 66.88083 | 41.725% |
82 | Missouri | 4 | 5 | 62.37119 | 40.832% |
83 | Central Michigan | 5 | 4 | 57.7913 | 39.457% |
84 | Miami-OH | 4 | 5 | 57.74178 | 39.763% |
85 | UAB | 6 | 3 | 57.16103 | 39.115% |
86 | Northwestern | 3 | 6 | 53.52195 | 37.987% |
87 | USC | 4 | 5 | 52.47446 | 37.751% |
88 | UTEP | 6 | 3 | 52.13118 | 38.092% |
89 | Florida Atlantic | 5 | 4 | 50.55587 | 37.180% |
90 | Stanford | 3 | 6 | 48.76376 | 37.043% |
91 | Navy | 2 | 7 | 44.49139 | 35.292% |
92 | Toledo | 4 | 5 | 44.18236 | 35.159% |
93 | LA Monroe | 4 | 5 | 42.11067 | 34.748% |
94 | Troy | 5 | 4 | 40.49234 | 33.780% |
95 | Charlotte | 5 | 4 | 39.43518 | 33.965% |
96 | MTSU | 4 | 5 | 34.50152 | 32.105% |
97 | San Jose State | 5 | 5 | 32.00583 | 30.450% |
98 | Hawaii | 4 | 6 | 31.66215 | 30.278% |
99 | Duke | 3 | 6 | 31.61299 | 30.237% |
100 | Washington | 4 | 5 | 31.49603 | 30.361% |
101 | Tulsa | 3 | 6 | 27.21164 | 28.291% |
102 | South Alabama | 5 | 4 | 25.37949 | 27.621% |
103 | Colorado | 3 | 6 | 24.62265 | 26.885% |
104 | Buffalo | 4 | 5 | 24.3738 | 26.768% |
105 | Temple | 3 | 6 | 24.05393 | 27.031% |
106 | California | 3 | 6 | 23.97565 | 26.559% |
107 | Bowling Green | 3 | 6 | 22.81446 | 26.128% |
108 | Wyoming | 4 | 5 | 22.78672 | 26.269% |
109 | Rice | 3 | 6 | 21.19733 | 25.234% |
110 | South Florida | 2 | 7 | 18.60823 | 23.174% |
111 | Colorado State | 3 | 6 | 17.66229 | 22.612% |
112 | Texas State | 3 | 6 | 17.23949 | 22.251% |
113 | Tulane | 1 | 8 | 17.03821 | 22.140% |
114 | Old Dominion | 3 | 6 | 16.43962 | 22.350% |
115 | Louisiana Tech | 2 | 7 | 15.80729 | 21.257% |
116 | North Texas | 3 | 6 | 15.51871 | 21.204% |
117 | Ohio | 2 | 7 | 11.31526 | 17.577% |
118 | Kansas | 1 | 8 | 11.03613 | 17.484% |
119 | Georgia Southern | 2 | 7 | 10.48088 | 16.739% |
120 | New Mexico | 3 | 6 | 10.36909 | 17.046% |
121 | UNLV | 1 | 8 | 7.853582 | 14.188% |
122 | Akron | 2 | 6 | 7.80304 | 14.089% |
123 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 7 | 7.112047 | 13.096% |
124 | Other | 11 | 98 | 6.195074 | 11.994% |
125 | Arizona | 1 | 8 | 5.946241 | 11.673% |
126 | Arkansas State | 1 | 8 | 5.230293 | 10.672% |
127 | New Mexico State | 1 | 8 | 4.545196 | 9.614% |
128 | FIU | 1 | 8 | 4.192688 | 9.379% |
129 | Southern Miss | 1 | 8 | 3.751231 | 8.349% |
130 | Massachusetts | 1 | 8 | 2.275264 | 5.651% |
131 | Connecticut | 1 | 8 | 1.813061 | 4.607% |
Obviously Ohio State’s #10 ranking is controversial as is Oregon’s #21. But Oregon’s loss – a road loss to a 3-6 Stanford team is the worst loss of the CFP contenders. Ohio State’s home loss to Oregon thus looks worse. But Ohio State still has a lot of quality win chances to come. Notre Dame is a little high relative to the eye test for me – but the resume is strong if you consider that winning is the most important criteria.
Fitting a 16 Team Playoff
As usual, we use a 3-year Champions’ League style coefficient to determine the available spots per conference. Based on that formula?
- ACC (2 teams): Wake Forest (17), North Carolina State (25)
- Big 12 (2 teams): Oklahoma (3), Oklahoma State (9)
- Big Ten (3 teams): Michigan (5), Michigan State (7), Ohio State (8)
- SEC (4 teams): Georgia (1), Alabama (6), Auburn (12), Ole Miss (14)
- Pac 12 (2 teams): Oregon (21), Utah (46)
- Others (3 teams): Cincinnati (2), Notre Dame (4), UT-San Antonio (10)
The bubble in this world? Teams that could move into positions …
- ACC: Clemson (26), Pittsburgh (28), Virginia (29), Miami-FL (30)
- Big 12: Baylor (20), Iowa State (22), Kansas State (24)
- Big Ten: Wisconsin (11), Iowa (13), Penn State (15)
- SEC: Texas A&M (16), Arkansas (19), Mississippi State (35), Kentucky (36)
- Pac-12: Arizona State (62), UCLA (66)
- Others: BYU (23), Appalachian State (31), San Diego State (32), Lousiana (34), Houston (37)
Fitting the matchups, the bracket looks something like this.
- (16) Utah at (1) Georgia
- (9) Oklahoma State at (8) Ohio State
- (12) Ole Miss at (5) Michigan
- (13) Wake Forest at (4) Notre Dame
- (14) Oregon at (3) Oklahoma
- (11) UT-San Antonio at (6) Alabama
- (10) Auburn at (7) Michigan State
- (15) North Carolina State at (2) Cincinnati