Well, I tried this once. But after looking at the data from 2008-2019 and tinkering with the share of victory value split between “winning” vs “margin of victory”, I think the rankings were not giving enough credit to margin of victory. But with some time on my hands, I tweaked the rankings to give more credit – where 30% of the “victory points” is based on margin of victory (as opposed to 10% previously). With that in mind, the rankings entering Championship Week are as follows.
| Rank | Team | W | L | Rtg | RRWin |
| 1 | Georgia | 12 | 0 | 2463.952 | 93.886% |
| 2 | Michigan | 11 | 1 | 1084.907 | 87.568% |
| 3 | Alabama | 11 | 1 | 940.382 | 86.334% |
| 4 | Ohio State | 10 | 2 | 926.6521 | 86.114% |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 12 | 0 | 924.2726 | 86.160% |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 11 | 1 | 658.174 | 82.154% |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 11 | 1 | 565.3639 | 79.920% |
| 8 | Michigan State | 10 | 2 | 543.7959 | 79.177% |
| 9 | Ole Miss | 10 | 2 | 530.3689 | 79.078% |
| 10 | Wisconsin | 8 | 4 | 432.2224 | 76.170% |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 10 | 2 | 417.146 | 75.600% |
| 12 | Iowa | 10 | 2 | 408.5669 | 75.181% |
| 13 | Baylor | 10 | 2 | 406.6818 | 75.246% |
| 14 | Clemson | 9 | 3 | 406.4646 | 75.023% |
| 15 | Penn State | 7 | 5 | 402.4144 | 74.814% |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | 10 | 2 | 399.863 | 74.941% |
| 17 | Arkansas | 8 | 4 | 381.4562 | 74.145% |
| 18 | Oklahoma | 10 | 2 | 367.2492 | 73.446% |
| 19 | Purdue | 8 | 4 | 349.6486 | 72.909% |
| 20 | NC State | 9 | 3 | 338.5316 | 72.059% |
| 21 | Texas A&M | 8 | 4 | 325.9778 | 71.423% |
| 22 | Kentucky | 9 | 3 | 290.264 | 69.188% |
| 23 | Utah | 9 | 3 | 287.8943 | 69.593% |
| 24 | Oregon | 10 | 2 | 279.6392 | 68.937% |
| 25 | Minnesota | 8 | 4 | 278.6884 | 68.741% |
| 26 | Auburn | 6 | 6 | 277.6441 | 68.510% |
| 27 | Mississippi State | 7 | 5 | 261.1202 | 67.506% |
| 28 | Houston | 11 | 1 | 260.6241 | 67.802% |
| 29 | BYU | 10 | 2 | 259.2455 | 67.703% |
| 30 | San Diego State | 11 | 1 | 248.5249 | 67.030% |
| 31 | Tennessee | 7 | 5 | 247.364 | 66.639% |
| 32 | Iowa State | 7 | 5 | 240.8667 | 66.242% |
| 33 | Appalachian State | 10 | 2 | 235.8835 | 65.988% |
| 34 | Army | 8 | 3 | 223.2166 | 64.610% |
| 35 | UTSA | 11 | 1 | 212.6154 | 64.244% |
| 36 | LSU | 6 | 6 | 206.0863 | 63.275% |
| 37 | Miami-FL | 7 | 5 | 199.7599 | 62.788% |
| 38 | Boise State | 7 | 5 | 196.1104 | 62.609% |
| 39 | Air Force | 8 | 3 | 187.3145 | 61.461% |
| 40 | Kansas State | 7 | 5 | 182.4565 | 61.308% |
| 41 | Fresno State | 9 | 3 | 178.5761 | 60.888% |
| 42 | Louisiana | 11 | 1 | 173.116 | 60.266% |
| 43 | UCLA | 8 | 4 | 170.6891 | 59.916% |
| 44 | Western Kentucky | 8 | 4 | 169.6787 | 59.582% |
| 45 | Maryland | 6 | 6 | 160.5955 | 58.638% |
| 46 | Nevada | 8 | 4 | 157.7252 | 58.432% |
| 47 | Florida | 6 | 6 | 157.3484 | 58.202% |
| 48 | Louisville | 6 | 6 | 155.8044 | 58.051% |
| 49 | Virginia | 6 | 6 | 153.7015 | 57.673% |
| 50 | North Carolina | 6 | 6 | 152.5132 | 57.717% |
| 51 | SMU | 8 | 4 | 151.5608 | 57.633% |
| 52 | Nebraska | 3 | 9 | 148.6296 | 57.127% |
| 53 | Texas | 5 | 7 | 145.5792 | 56.571% |
| 54 | West Virginia | 6 | 6 | 144.4584 | 56.287% |
| 55 | Arizona State | 8 | 4 | 139.0787 | 56.060% |
| 56 | Illinois | 5 | 7 | 138.4929 | 55.405% |
| 57 | Coastal Carolina | 10 | 2 | 130.0893 | 54.709% |
| 58 | Oregon State | 7 | 5 | 129.5212 | 54.234% |
| 59 | South Carolina | 6 | 6 | 125.5351 | 53.716% |
| 60 | Texas Tech | 6 | 6 | 119.8012 | 52.800% |
| 61 | Washington State | 7 | 5 | 119.0602 | 52.886% |
| 62 | Virginia Tech | 6 | 6 | 117.913 | 52.338% |
| 63 | UCF | 8 | 4 | 114.8783 | 52.106% |
| 64 | Florida State | 5 | 7 | 114.6541 | 51.997% |
| 65 | UAB | 8 | 4 | 114.5117 | 51.922% |
| 66 | Rutgers | 5 | 7 | 111.3029 | 51.592% |
| 67 | East Carolina | 7 | 5 | 110.903 | 51.307% |
| 68 | Missouri | 6 | 6 | 110.4669 | 51.455% |
| 69 | Central Michigan | 8 | 4 | 110.04 | 51.191% |
| 70 | Liberty | 7 | 5 | 109.1172 | 50.999% |
| 71 | Northern Illinois | 9 | 3 | 106.4931 | 50.598% |
| 72 | Utah State | 9 | 3 | 105.6927 | 50.545% |
| 73 | Syracuse | 5 | 7 | 105.5721 | 50.117% |
| 74 | Boston College | 6 | 6 | 100 | 49.270% |
| 75 | Marshall | 7 | 5 | 99.03804 | 49.342% |
| 76 | Western Michigan | 7 | 5 | 93.52333 | 47.958% |
| 77 | Toledo | 7 | 5 | 89.39407 | 47.027% |
| 78 | Miami-OH | 6 | 6 | 87.37183 | 46.823% |
| 79 | Georgia State | 7 | 5 | 86.20546 | 46.446% |
| 80 | TCU | 5 | 7 | 85.31586 | 45.935% |
| 81 | Tulsa | 6 | 6 | 82.99929 | 45.571% |
| 82 | Memphis | 6 | 6 | 76.45131 | 43.930% |
| 83 | Kent State | 7 | 5 | 72.76096 | 43.252% |
| 84 | Georgia Tech | 3 | 9 | 68.9466 | 41.902% |
| 85 | Indiana | 2 | 10 | 68.75892 | 41.676% |
| 86 | Ball State | 6 | 6 | 67.79753 | 41.631% |
| 87 | USC | 4 | 7 | 67.28326 | 41.313% |
| 88 | Eastern Michigan | 7 | 5 | 65.18442 | 40.829% |
| 89 | Navy | 3 | 8 | 60.43138 | 39.323% |
| 90 | California | 4 | 7 | 58.84305 | 38.856% |
| 91 | UTEP | 7 | 5 | 53.89699 | 37.447% |
| 92 | North Texas | 6 | 6 | 53.73836 | 37.388% |
| 93 | Northwestern | 3 | 9 | 52.78975 | 36.667% |
| 94 | Old Dominion | 6 | 6 | 50.88334 | 36.600% |
| 95 | MTSU | 6 | 6 | 50.09962 | 36.276% |
| 96 | Hawaii | 6 | 7 | 47.12825 | 34.655% |
| 97 | Colorado | 4 | 8 | 47.01068 | 34.645% |
| 98 | Stanford | 3 | 9 | 46.57291 | 34.632% |
| 99 | Washington | 4 | 8 | 45.99151 | 34.268% |
| 100 | Tulane | 2 | 10 | 44.5603 | 33.613% |
| 101 | Florida Atlantic | 5 | 7 | 42.57852 | 32.845% |
| 102 | Wyoming | 5 | 7 | 40.66241 | 32.405% |
| 103 | Troy | 5 | 7 | 38.11713 | 30.837% |
| 104 | San Jose State | 5 | 7 | 37.93782 | 30.821% |
| 105 | South Alabama | 5 | 7 | 36.9172 | 30.712% |
| 106 | South Florida | 2 | 10 | 33.47286 | 28.604% |
| 107 | LA Monroe | 4 | 8 | 32.25008 | 28.267% |
| 108 | Buffalo | 4 | 8 | 32.1132 | 28.018% |
| 109 | Colorado State | 3 | 9 | 32.09823 | 28.001% |
| 110 | Rice | 4 | 8 | 31.50406 | 27.903% |
| 111 | Duke | 3 | 9 | 30.41468 | 27.143% |
| 112 | Louisiana Tech | 3 | 9 | 29.96151 | 26.898% |
| 113 | UNLV | 2 | 10 | 29.30955 | 26.792% |
| 114 | Bowling Green | 4 | 8 | 28.54838 | 26.371% |
| 115 | Charlotte | 5 | 7 | 27.94141 | 26.085% |
| 116 | Kansas | 2 | 10 | 27.4828 | 25.699% |
| 117 | Ohio | 3 | 9 | 25.21996 | 24.299% |
| 118 | Georgia Southern | 3 | 9 | 24.17714 | 23.542% |
| 119 | Temple | 3 | 9 | 21.21741 | 22.049% |
| 120 | Texas State | 4 | 8 | 20.85667 | 21.410% |
| 121 | Arizona | 1 | 11 | 20.14231 | 21.090% |
| 122 | New Mexico | 3 | 9 | 19.53762 | 20.747% |
| 123 | Southern Miss | 3 | 9 | 18.64201 | 19.958% |
| 124 | Arkansas State | 2 | 10 | 17.61639 | 19.287% |
| 125 | Vanderbilt | 2 | 10 | 16.94015 | 18.606% |
| 126 | Akron | 2 | 10 | 13.73047 | 16.251% |
| 127 | Other | 12 | 104 | 13.37038 | 15.777% |
| 128 | New Mexico State | 2 | 10 | 12.20675 | 14.760% |
| 129 | FIU | 1 | 11 | 8.357579 | 11.217% |
| 130 | Connecticut | 1 | 11 | 6.623841 | 9.107% |
| 131 | Massachusetts | 1 | 11 | 5.08345 | 7.331% |
This is all fine and good, but how can we use this to fit a 16 team tournament? In the previous attempts, I was inspired by the UEFA Champions League soccer competition, which assigns slots to countries based on past performance. So I looked at the modeling I’ve done since 2008 – including bowl games – to allocate slots between the Power 5 and “Everybody else”. I assigned 50 points for the #1 team, 49, 48 … all the way to 1 point for the 50th team. Looking at 3-year averages (UEFA uses a 5 year average, but there is less turnover among soccer teams) the conference allocation for this year would be (based on the 2017-2019 averages, I skipped 2020 for obvious reasons).
- ACC (2 berths): Wake Forest (11), Clemson (14)
- Big 12 (2): Oklahoma State (7), Baylor (13)
- Big Ten (3): Michigan (2), Ohio State (4), Michigan State (8)
- Pac 12 (2): Utah (23), Oregon (24)
- SEC (4): Georgia (1), Alabama (3), Ole Miss (9), Arkansas (17)
- Other (3): Cincinnati (5), Notre Dame (6), Houston (28)
Next, we moved Cincinnati to #3 due to being a conference champion/leader, and Notre Dame to #4 as an Independent. The 16 team field is set – assuming the first round is at home field (which it should be):
- (16) Houston at (1) Georgia
- (9) Ole Miss at (8) Michigan State
- (12) Clemson at (5) Alabama
- (13) Arkansas at (4) Notre Dame
- (14) Utah at (3) Cincinnati
- (11) Baylor at (6) Ohio State
- (10) Wake Forest at (7) Oklahoma State
- (15) Oregon at (2) Michigan
Going back to 2019, the berths would have looked like this:
- ACC (3 berths): Clemson (3), Virginia (36), Virginia Tech (47)
- Big 12 (2): Oklahoma (7), Baylor (16)
- Big Ten (3): Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (6), Penn State (9)
- Pac 12 (2): Oregon (11), Utah (14)
- SEC (4): LSU (2), Alabama (4), Georgia (5), Auburn (8)
- Other (2): Notre Dame (13), Memphis (15)
The 16 team field would be:
- (16) Virginia Tech at (1) Ohio State
- (9) Penn State at (8) Auburn
- (12) Utah at (5) Alabama
- (13) Memphis at (4) Oklahoma
- (14) Baylor at (3) Clemson
- (11) Notre Dame at (6) Georgia
- (10) Oregon at (7) Wisconsin
- (15) Virginia at (2) LSU
Meadow Muffins of the Mind 