Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #3

OK, OK … I’m done whining about the quality of basketball so far.  It is what it is – maybe the season will get better – but the season is unfolding in a compelling way.  How have the rankings changed since last week’s tome?  Here ya go (previous position in parentheses):

1. (3) Heat (16-5)
2. (1) Sixers (15-6)
3. (2) Bulls (18-5)
4. (4) Hawks (15-6)
5. (6) Nuggets (14-6)
6. (5) Thunder (16-4)
7. (9) Mavericks (14-8)
8. (10) Blazers (12-9)
9. (13) Spurs (13-9)
10. (14) Clippers (12-7)
11. (7) Lakers (12-9)
12. (19) Celtics (9-10)
13. (16) Timberwolves (10-11)
14. (17) Rockets (12-9)
15. (15) Pacers (13-6)
16. (8) Jazz (12-7)
17. (11) Grizzlies (10-10)
18. (12) Magic (12-8)
19. (21) Bucks (9-11)
20. (20) Hornets (4-17)
21. (18) Suns (7-13)
22. (22) Warriors (6-12)
23. (24) Raptors (7-14)
24. (23) Knicks (7-13)
25. (25) Cavaliers (8-11)
26. (26) Nets (7-13)
27. (29) Wizards (4-17)
28. (27) Kings (6-14)
29. (28) Pistons (4-18)
30. (30) Bobcats (3-18)

Some notes:

1. The big mover in the right direction has been Boston.  Yeah, 9-10 is not oozing impressiveness, and the schedule has not been the most strenuous.  However, the dual wins over Orlando and spunky win over Indiana more than offset the toe stub against the Cavaliers.  Considering how few points they have scored all season, it is easy for storyline NBA writers to talk about their offensive woes and how their defense misses Kendrick Perkins.  As it turns out, their offensive woes are overrated – they are not very good offensively, but they have been this way for a while now with the snail like pace they operate at.  The Celtics, as usual, are a good TS% team – 7th in the league, but between their indifferent offensive rebounding and lousy turnover rate – the Celtics like last year still generate the fewest looks of any team in the league.  That said, the defense has risen since Paul Pierce has returned.  The defense now is 2nd in the league, the best of the non-Sixers (who have lapped the field so far in that department).  Really where the team misses Perkins perhaps and still needs to improve is its 15th ranked defensive rebounding.  However, the Celtics are back to sort of usual – they need scoring more than defense.
2. One thing to note about Boston’s results is that it might be skewed by its results over Orlando who had sort of a worst week ever.  Aside from a good win at Indiana, the Magic have been littered with awesomely poor efforts in Boston, and hosting Boston in the 2nd half, and then at New Orleans (though the Hornets are not as bad as their record).  Yeah their offense has looked horrible lately, but they always look that way because of the number of 3s hoisted up.  The TS% is a bit worse than a year ago (12th from 9th) but the real dropoff has been defensively.  This year the Magic – though about the same defensively quantitatively a year ago – has slipped from elite to decent.  Considering that Dwight Howard is their only good defensive player – he might be the cause.  Is he checking out of the season the way Melo did?  Considering his willingness to answer questions about future destinations on the record a la Melo 2011, it is hard to say no.
3. The Magic right now are just punching above its metric weight.  The plunge of the week though went to Utah who slipped on the basis of a 2-2 week, with a home loss to Toronto being particularly mystifying.  The Jazz have been the beneficiaries of great seasons from Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap.  The bigs have led the Jazz to the 3rd most frequent visitor to the foul line, and the league’s 2nd best offensive rebound rate.  The two guys are strong with the ball too – as the Jazz have been a very low turnover team.  Sure Devin Harris has struggled and was never a passing point guard to begin with, but the Jazz with their pounding offense – manage to take care of the ball since it does not move much.  The Jazz are near the bottom of the league from 3, so this is really a 1976 sort of strategy – but so far the quantity approach (3rd in the league in shot generation) has worked out.  Really the Jazz have had to win with offense as the defense is not very good – merely 16th in the league – and seems distinguished only by the number of fouls committed.  Some things don’t change.
4. If the Magic are the bad of recent note, the Ugly, Pathetic, and Sad have to be the Phoenix Suns.  A mere two seasons ago we’re talking about a team that was a scant two wins from the Finals.  Obviously they chose to let Amare go for financial reasons or whatever – but all of the personnel moves since are amazing to regard in collective.  I mean, in 2010 this team averaged 108 points per average paced game.  To give a perspective, the best team in 2011 was Denver at 104.3 let alone this year’s Denver’s 100.6.  So the Suns were a full 8 points better than the elite teams of this season!  Of course the 2010 Suns were merely a sentence of one of the great paragraphs in NBA history – a six year stretch interrupted by a brief blip where the otherwise brilliant Steve Kerr thought they needed to change – some of the best, most well oiled offensive teams ever.  Indeed while Mike D’Antoni was there, the defense was actually fairly good – the lack of physicality and pace of play obscured the fact that the team did a good job defending without fouling and largely preventing high value shots.  But you look at last year – as the Suns added Josh Childress, and then Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat – and became a more conventional alignment  – the team slipped to a mortal 9th place.  Meanwhile without Stoudemire there to provide any meaningful resistance – the defense actually DID start to stink.  This year it’s just depressing how far it has fallen.  The Suns are a mere 17th in pace, and now a sick sad 23rd in offense.  A Steve Nash team 23rd in offense?  92 points per game?  SIXTEEN POINTS WORSE than 2010?  From first in true shooting to 19th.  It’s a shame – and it feels entirely self inflicted as Steve Kerr laughs maniacally from his TNT position.  I am not sure the old way would have won a title – but we know THIS way won’t, and it ends up being horrendous basketball to boot.  A team that cranks out 60 win seasons – even if you don’t think it is a particular sustainable model – is some SORT of contender?  Shouldn’t Phoenix have ridden that out?  It’s not like they were blown out in their chances to shine.  Sigh.

 

 

Dare to be Stupid – I’ll Take “Not Blake Griffin” for $200 plus …

Well, as you probably have figured out by now – there was a guy, and a car …

With  Blake Griffin taking the world by storm, so – it makes the much slower development of Hasheem Thabeet, the Grizzlies pick – 2nd overall – all the more stark.  And today the Grizzlies tapped out:

Rockets get Hasheem Thabeet and the Grizzlies 1st round pick in 2011

Grizzlies get Shane Battier

The Grizzlies needed a small forward with Rudy Gay’s injury.  Battier can back up the two and four positions as well.  He is a good glue player, and the Grizzlies have a unique opportunity to race up the West standings – especially with Denver and Utah waving white flags earlier.  But this does bury the lede a bit – that the Grizzlies could not get a quality role player with the former #2 overall pick.  Yikes.

The Rockets continue to collect assets.  They get a second first round pick (of three – keep reading).  They were all dressed up looking for a dance partner, but could not get anyone to bit on Yao’s insured contract, which surprises me.  So that being said, they are able to get a mid first round pick from the Grizzlies and a chance to develop Thabeet.  He has been a bust so far, but he is 7’3″, and there is no reason he cannot develop into a useful guy.  Just amazing to see the Grizzlies give up on that chance so quickly and so desperately.

************************************************************************************************************************************************************

In another deal:

Suns get Aaron Brooks

Rockets get Goran Dragic and the Suns’ first round pick in 2011

The Rockets had a point guard glut – it’s clear they have chosen Kyle Lowry over Brooks – who is really better suited as a poor man’s Leandro Barbosa type anyway.  They also get a first rounder in the next draft – and thus another asset.

The Suns get some backcourt help.  It’s pretty clear that they see the newly Charmin soft bottom of the playoff bubble – and want to try to make the playoffs.  The wisdom of this strategy long term is dubious – but I can’t argue with a team trying to make the tournament.  This definitely helps them to that end – Brooks brings the speed and quickness the team always has been deft with using.

Dare to be Stupid: The Magic Double Down

Well, you gotta give the Magic credit for going big.  We all knew they had the best roster to organize a big trade to reshape a roster that maybe might not be good enough to match Boston and Miami in the East.  Marcin Gortat, arguably one of the 10 best centers in the game, was BACKING UP Dwight Howard, while Vince Carter’s partially guaranteed 2012 salary made him a very attractive chip too.  So they took their two major chips and turned them into … the two worst contracts in the NBA??  What??

Gilbert Arenas has shown signs of being a good player again.  He is a bit more creative than other perimeter options, as is Hedo Turkoglu.  Indeed, the lack of perimeter creativity is what the Magic wanted to fix.  But is Arenas better than Jameer Nelson, now, in 2010 – at THAT price?  Turkoglu has sucked donkey balls the last two stops – why should that change here?  There is a lot of money being spent here and a lot of tilting at windmills.

Of course, the deal also brings back Jason Richardson and Earl Clark from the Suns.  Earl Clark is a project, but has some talent – but frankly has been a bust so far as a lottery guy.  Richardson is a poor defender, but can really fill it up.  His shooting is a great fit with the Magic 3-point gunning, but he does not solve the creativity gap on the perimeter either.

For the Wizards this move was a no-brainer.  Considering the size of Arenas’ deal, any trade made would be a mistake for mistake exchange.  The Wizards, without having to give away a draft choice – got a less onerous mistake in Rashard Lewis.  So this is an obvious fit – and it commits them fully to John Wall, which was the sensible thing to do anyhoo.

For the Suns, this is a strong move.  Gortat gives them some beef they desperately needed, considering how putrid their defense and rebounding are.  He and Robin Lopez make a pretty good center combination.  Mikael Pietrus is a guy with some talent, but is relatively throw-in like.  Vince Carter is at least as good as Jason Richardson.  Hedo Turkoglu was useless to them, so his departure is great contractually.  This move makes their roster more sensible while adding a first round pick – and Vince Carter is very much moveable if that tickles their fancy.

Ultimately, the headlines will be about Orlando re-shaping their team, but it is hard to see where the true marginal gain is.  This feels like re-arranging deck chairs to sate the talk show calling hordes.

 

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 18-13

Before we get to the meat, a side note:

• I only managed to catch the final two fights on UFC 121.  I am normally not a huge MMA guy, but when the top needle mover in the sport is going, I am up for it.  Brock Lesnar since coming over from fake sports (I knew him from WWE) has been a force of nature unlike anything MMA has seen before.  However, Cain Velasquez was the first guy he faced who was legitimately faster than him.  Lesnar came out hot but Velasquez was ready for it and after the initial rush Velasquez beat the living crap out of Lesnar.  What a performance!  Lesnar needs to figure out how to defend himself when he gets sent down – this almost killed him against Carwin.  Also, sadly, Jake Shields sucked – gave me no reason to think that John Fitch does not deserve to UFC’s #1 contender for GSP – as horrible as that sounds.
• Wow is Lesnar’s chin awful or what?

Now, back to basketball.

As we rise up the rankings, we have passed bad teams, interesting but unripe teams, uninteresting but skilled teams … now we start getting into fringy playoff sides.

18. Indiana Pacers (21st overall in 2010, 26th offense, 14th defense)

Really the Charlotte Bobcats forecast in our previous entry and the next two entries might qualify for the least interesting teams in the league for this season.  They aren’t bad in any sort of customary way, they might even make the playoffs to be a punching bag for a really good side – but I don’t see much sizzle here.  Danny Granger is a terrific player, but clearly more of a #2 than a #1.  Darren Collison is an excellent point guard prospect, and unlike TJ Ford seems to know that passing is a good idea.  Still, is he going to be on the Rose-Rondo-Deron-CP3 sort of future short list?  But then: Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Dontae Jones, Roy Hibbert, Mike Dunleavy.  There are a lot of decent players here, but decent is it.  To his credit, Larry Bird recognized the stasis and went for some high ceiling low probability guys in Paul George and Lance Stephenson in the draft.  If some of that works, maybe this is a playoff team and attractive to a free agent with the cap room they have.  But I don’t know.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Paul George reaches his ceiling and Darren Collison is a lot better than I think (and I respect him a lot), while Granger remains a high efficiency scorer.  Really, they might have to join the NBDL too.  This is a potential playoff team, but I don’t see what that potential means.

17. New Orleans Hornets (19th overall in 2010, 16th offense, 22nd defense)

Much drama was had regarding Chris Paul’s flailing about and tacit demanding of a trade.  Really it was part of a very eventful offseason.  Jeff Bower, the GM and interim coach left, the Hornets got someone from the Spurs (always a decent idea) and hired Monte Williams as coach, a lauded assistant I know nothing about.  They traded for Trevor Ariza to give some athleticism and drafted Quincy Pondexter for even more.  The team has some talent, but really they are the West’s Washington Wizards, who placed a lot of high value bets on decent players who did not deserve such faith.  One man’s Caron Butler, put simply, is another’s Peja Stojakovic.  Fortunately for the Hornets, they have some cap room next year, but will they fulfill Chris Paul’s wishes to have a chance to win without him making a pinkie swear promise with somebody?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: NBA teams are only allowed to play one point guard on the floor with no other players.

16. Phoenix Suns (3rd overall in 2010, 1st offense, 19th defense)

So THIS is the fallout from one of the most joyous seasons in Suns history.  Sure they lost a tough series to the Lakers, but the season was such found money that it is hard to argue the season was nothing but a screaming success.  So they celebrated by losing Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks, bungling the situation so they could not get a giant cap exception.  They then signed Hakim Warrick, traded for Josh Childress and traded for Hedo Turkoglu, one of the ghastliest contracts in the NBA.   Louis Amundsen, their energy big man off their remarkable bench left for Golden State.  The end result is Steve Nash is surrounded by a bevy of small forwards, and a couple of VERY soft big men.  Also gone is the shooting prowess of Leandro Barbosa.  Honestly, I am not sure besides Steve Nash, Jason Richardson and Channing Frye, where the firepower is coming from outside.  Can they play the breakneck pace they always do and shoot well?  Sure.  But their defense, not a strength a year ago (and it actually WAS a strength under D’Antoni) could be earth shatteringly bad.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They somehow match last year’s true shooting percentage and offensive efficiency while Robin Lopez turns into Marcus Camby.  They need to defend marginally well and rebound.  They could majorly overachieve again, but I don’t expect any team that scares away a guy like Steve Kerr to be achieving much of anything.

15. New York Knicks

In a fun coincidence, we follow Mike D’Antoni’s old team with his current one.  On the bad side, the Knicks plan to get LeBron James as a colossal failure.  They had no way of knowing about the pinky swear promise, and as such they built up their fans’ hopes for nothing.  Some have called the offseason an unmitigated disaster.  I am inclined to empathize, but given this – their offseason was actually pretty good.  They signed Amare Stoudemire.  Sure he has no partner in crime, but by not splurging otherwise, there is some possibility to get that guy.  They fleeced Golden State trading David Lee’s one dimensional ass for Anthony Randolph who has Shawn Marion sort of ability dripping off of him.  They signed Raymond Felton to one of the smartest deals of the offseason – while that might not be a perfect fit on the court, he was a great value.  There is not the three point gunning in this lineup to satisfy D’Antoni, but there are the athletes to run, run, run.  The Knicks have the talent to get back into the playoffs at least.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: If the 2005 Suns magic strikes again and these guys all DO become great 3 point gunners.  There are a lot of 129-122 results in this team’s future.  There is no real title hope here, but the entertainment value will be there.

14. Atlanta Hawks (8th overall in 2010, 4th offense, 15th defense)

What is interesting about the Hawks offense is that they basically succeeded by not passing.  Their noted isolation heavy attack relied on shooting a lot and rebounding misses.  They led the league in lowest turnover rate because guys just shot it when they had it.  Their 4th ranked offensive rebounding stat shows how they were efficient.  They did a great job at making sure stuff was heading to the basket, such a great job that they had some slack when the ball did not go in.  That said, this team had great health and a great season off the bench for Jamal Crawford, and Josh Smith is one of the covert best players in the NBA.  Really this is the most predictable outfit in the league.  They are good and durable and playoff caliber.  But they just aren’t good enough to beat top teams in the postseason.  This has shown the last two years with their drubbings in the second round – their isolation offense gets exposed and they have no plan B.  If individual talent fails, what to do?  Allegedly new coach Larry Drew is trying to add some motion, but it’s hard to see them changing much.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The United States east of Atlanta crumbles and falls into the sea.

13. Denver Nuggets (10th overall in 2010, 6th offense, 16th defense)

Denver is in a weird place in their development.  10th a year ago, some of that can be attributed to George Karl’s bout with cancer.  Really, this side is not significantly different from the team that outplayed the Lakers for five games in 2009 – and is the best foul drawing team in recent history.  However, health, status all of that is in flux.  Does Carmelo Anthony want out?  He has been heard making noises about a pinkie swear promise with Chris Paul, or Meg Ryan or Amy Adams, I don’t know.  But there is some evidence of unrest.  Their desperately thin frontcourt is in even more peril as Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen have significant knee issues.  While Al Harrington (a good pickup) gives them some floor spacing, he hurts their already meh defense.  The team can shoot though, especially if JR Smith can stay more consistent than he has been, and Ty Lawson has all the makings of a star just waiting to escape the cage his coaches have put him in.  Denver could win the title – the talent is there, but this is very much like what a football preview writer might have said about the Minnesota Vikings.  This could REALLY go in any direction.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Carmelo Anthony stops making doe eyes at the East Coast and plays the basketball he is capable of, their thin big rotation stays healthy and Ty Lawson and JR Smith give them a true energizer dream backcourt to supplement what the old hand of Chauncey Billups can offer.  Denver could win 55 games, they could win 35 … I am totally flummoxed.

 

Dare to be Stupid – NBA Free Agency after Two Days

Some more moves:

Toronto Raptors extend Amir Johnson for 5 years, 34 million: This is a mid-level type of deal for the dude who will be pressed into duty by Chris Bosh’s likely departure.  He has shown potential in Detroit, but they let him go.  Potential has been all that we have had to go on.  Look at last season: 6 pts, 5 rebounds, 3 fouls a game in 18 minutes a game.  In other words, he can be productive, but he has trouble staying on the floor.  I applaud the Raptors to a degree – because they are placing a bet on his growth.  But this is high risk to say the least.

Milwaukee Bucks re-sign John Salmons for 5 years, 39 million: I don’t like the years here.  Salmons is not a franchise changer, but he helped the Bucks tremendously – and the team needs all the wing help they can get.  That said, given the hilarious contracts being awarded so far, Salmons is actually compensated pretty fairly.

Memphis Grizzlies re-sign Rudy Gay for 5 years, 81 million: Rudy Gay is 24 and has the chance to improve.  He is not a bad player – and the Grizzlies wanted to re-up him to avoid a really poisonous offer sheet.  However, now he is max salary – when he doesn’t deserve it.  Honestly, this deal is a reflection of what is wrong with the current NBA structure – the individual salary limit.  There is no way to differentiate between LeBron and Rudy Gay after some point on the salary scale.  And thus we get the high price of high uncertainty.

Phoenix Suns re-sign Channing Frye for 5 years, 30 million: Clearly, the Suns have accepted that Amare Stoudemire is gone.  This is too bad on one level – few players are as dynamic at their best.  However, Stoudemire had a huge injury red flag, has been a fairly high maintenance guy – and in key spots has shown an unwillingness to get tough (like the Lakers series).  I don’t fault the Suns – and their contingencies are solid.  Frye is one-dimensional – but he sure is good at that dimension (shooting).  For 6 million a year – a quality big who can stick the three ball – you could do a lot worse.

Phoenix Suns sign Hakim Warrick for 4 years, 18 million: The Suns are paying backup money for a poor man’s Amare Stoudemire.  Warrick can shoot midrange and he can dunk.  He can’t defend – but he was buried in his last couple of stops.  Warrick clearly has ability – and is a good upside candidate in this system.  They got him at a good rate.

NBA Conference Finals Preview and Picks

Well, the Bostonian in me would be remiss not to touch base about the Bruins historic collapse against the Philadelphia Flyers – the scribes have written, what more is there to say?  Let’s move on.

The Celtics, coming off of their shocking upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Orlando Magic, who have sliced through the playoffs with ferocious intent so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Meanwhile, in the West, the Suns and Lakers come off of a week rest after each swept through the Spurs and Jazz respectively.  If one remember’s Steve Nash’s face after the win over the Spurs, clearly the Suns needed the rest:

Ewwwww

So, how will the series go?  Given my knowledge of the Cavs-Celtics series, take these at your own peril.

Suns v Lakers … power rankings wise this is #3 vs #7.  The Suns have been outstanding this postseason with their sweep and their more one sided than it looked win over the Blazers.  The Lakers had to work harder, but are coming off of a high level sweep of the Jazz.  If we just look at the 5 man lineups, the Lakers size is a real problem for the Suns.  Normally, when we think Suns, we expect the team to be soft on the inside and not really care.  With these guys, that is different.  They won the Spurs series basically on the glass with their earnestness – outrebounding the Spurs in Game 2 severely on the offensive side.  The Suns with their #19 defense, will never be considered a juggernaut – but they try harder this year – and have a mean streak with Jared Dudley and Louis Amundsen, that previous vintages don’t have.  However, all of this still leaves the Lakers at an advantage down low, even with the Suns offering more length than the Jazz could.

However, the Suns are a brilliant offensive team, #1 in the league again.  Amare Stoudemire could and should still give the Lakers problems, and the Nash is as good as ever.  While the Lakers can match up small using Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar most likely will have to guard somebody, whether it be Nash, Jason Richardson or Barbosa.  There is an edge there.  Also the Suns’ bench has been outstanding – they must flog the Lakers generally woeful second unit to optimize their probability of winning.  But the probability is significant.  This shapes up as a classic: Lakers in 7

Magic v Celtics: The Magic finished the season #1 in the Power Rankings, while the Celtics finished #10.  That said the Celtics have gotten healthier and played a brilliant series to beat Cleveland.  But this is another kettle of fish.  The Magic are coming off of an epic 27-3 stretch with a high scoring margin over those 30 games than the Celtics had ALL SEASON.  They might not win it all, but they have clearly been the best team in the league since 2010 started.  The Magic have the league’s best defense anchored by Dwight Howard, offer matchup issues with Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, and Jameer Nelson playing a PG so well that the Magic’s “if only he were healthy last year” misgiving is legitimate.  Rondo should not be able to flog this matchup like he did against Cleveland.  Also the Celtics beat Cleveland because Kevin Garnett emerged as the team’s second best player again, and dominated Antawn Jamison.  Rashard Lewis is a tougher test – lacking the wussiness and the inability to dribble fashioned by Antawn.  The Magic also offer unmatched depth with Ryan Anderson, Jason Williams, JJ Redick and Marcin Gortat – the Celtics bench, a weakness all season, will be tested again.  The Celtics can win this, but it is on Rondo and Pierce to rise up in the toughest scenario to date.  Magic in 5

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks

Well, this is hardly revelation. Indeed, two of the series are already underway with the Lakers and the Cavaliers each taking 1-0 leads. Fortunately I was not picking the Celtics or the Jazz to sweep, so no biggie. So the series (rankings based on final rankings):

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (10):  To their credit, the Celtics will not be scared.  Of course this is a rematch of a 2nd round series from 2007-2008 when the Celtics beat the Cavs in a series where nobody won on the road.  This time, the Celtics NEED to win in Cleveland.  Alas, they have blown leads all season and their defense, 6th in the league, has wavered at times when they’ve needed big results.  Cavs athleticism is a real problem.  Celts must stop the Cavs 3 – and Rondo has to dominate.  Cavs in 5

Magic (1) vs Hawks (8): In Round 1, Magic played the Bobcats – 2 stout defenses with only one good offensive team – hence a Magic sweep.  Now, two of the league’s best offenses but this time the Magic have the far superior defense.  The Hawks have struggled in head to head matchups, and the Magic depth and quality is hard to top.  Both teams are very efficient on offense without being great assist teams – Magic take high level shots, Hawks offensively rebound.  Really I don’t see how the Hawks win.  Magic in 5

Lakers (7) vs Jazz (5):  Kirilenko has to play.  The Jazz showed to be a lousy defense in round 1 against Denver.  However, Denver was lousier and the Jazz scored at will.  The Lakers size and length are a tough matchup for the Jazz’ bigs.  Without Kirilenko the Jazz must win this on offense, which they are solid at.  However, the Lakers defense, with Bynum is outstanding.  There is a reason the Jazz have had trouble winning.  However, the Lakers did not look great against the Thunder.  They really are vulnerable.  The offense has been pedestrian, or streaky at the very least.  This could be a good series.  Lakers in 7

Suns (3) vs Spurs (4):  What a history these teams have.  Granted, the Spurs have had the better of it, but such a style matchup.  The Spurs are much more offensive minded now than back in the day.  I mean then the offense was efficient, but now their offense is more important, as their defense is not “great” anymore at a mere 9th.  The Suns are wonderful offensively, and they did very well in head to head this season.  They came off of a good series against a feisty Portland team, giving them 3 of their 4 worst losses of the season.  If Suns can manage the size, they should finally break through this time.  Suns in 6

The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Magic	59	23	104.631 (2)	96.214 (1)	1.75	3.166 (30)	13.333
2	Cavaliers	61	21	104.39 (3)	97.272 (8)	1.75	3.173 (29)	12.041
3	Suns	54	28	107.908 (1)	102.168 (19)	1.75	3.276 (25)	10.766
4	Spurs	50	32	102.717 (9)	97.59 (9)	1.75	3.532 (17)	10.41
5	Jazz	53	29	103.122 (8)	98.527 (10)	1.75	3.586 (13)	9.93
6	Thunder	50	32	101.459 (11)	97.188 (7)	1.75	3.584 (14)	9.604
7	Lakers	57	25	101.152 (13)	97.091 (5)	1.75	3.658 (10)	9.47
8	Hawks	53	29	104.132 (4)	100.085 (15)	1.75	3.381 (23)	9.178
9	Nuggets	53	29	103.777 (6)	100.105 (16)	1.75	3.63 (12)	9.051
10	Celtics	50	32	101.165 (12)	97.178 (6)	1.75	3.258 (27)	8.995
11	Blazers	50	32	103.569 (7)	99.894 (13)	1.75	3.415 (21)	8.84
12	Mavericks	55	27	102.457 (10)	98.973 (12)	1.75	3.472 (20)	8.706
13	Heat	47	35	100.305 (18)	96.849 (4)	1.75	3.219 (28)	8.426
14	Bobcats	44	38	97.408 (24)	96.389 (2)	1.75	3.411 (22)	6.18
15	Bucks	46	36	97.553 (23)	96.462 (3)	1.75	3.258 (26)	6.098
16	Rockets	42	40	100.13 (19)	100.907 (17)	1.75	3.928 (2)	4.901
17	Raptors	40	42	103.869 (5)	104.906 (30)	1.75	3.499 (18)	4.211
18	Bulls	41	41	96.563 (28)	98.573 (11)	1.75	3.568 (15)	3.308
19	Hornets	37	45	100.59 (16)	102.895 (22)	1.75	3.741 (7)	3.187
20	Grizzlies	40	42	100.398 (17)	102.932 (23)	1.75	3.739 (8)	2.955
21	Pacers	32	50	97.062 (26)	99.996 (14)	1.75	3.473 (19)	2.288
22	Warriors	26	56	100.65 (14)	104.321 (28)	1.75	3.897 (3)	1.977
23	Kings	25	57	98.103 (22)	102.032 (18)	1.75	3.868 (4)	1.689
24	Knicks	29	53	100.646 (15)	104.386 (29)	1.75	3.346 (24)	1.355
25	Sixers	27	55	99.066 (20)	103.097 (24)	1.75	3.546 (16)	1.265
26	Wizards	26	56	97.101 (25)	102.302 (20)	1.75	3.633 (11)	0.183
27	Clippers	29	53	96.693 (27)	102.357 (21)	1.75	3.866 (5)	-0.048
28	Pistons	27	55	98.198 (21)	104.067 (26)	1.75	3.68 (9)	-0.439
29	Timberwolves	15	67	94.652 (29)	104.233 (27)	1.75	4.111 (1)	-3.719
30	Nets	12	70	94.115 (30)	103.745 (25)	1.75	3.786 (6)	-4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

• The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
• The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
• Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7

Week 6 NBA Power Rankings

How it is calculated.  Now, onto this week’s results:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Celtics	16	4	103.121 (5)	93.246 (2)	1.75	2.562 (24)	14.188
2	Hawks	13	5	107.278 (1)	100.277 (17)	1.75	3.639 (17)	12.39
3	Lakers	16	3	100.877 (14)	92.99 (1)	0.737	3.756 (15)	12.379
4	Cavaliers	15	5	102.834 (6)	95.475 (5)	1.75	2.227 (28)	11.336
5	Nuggets	16	5	105.531 (3)	97.986 (12)	1.833	1.081 (30)	10.46
6	Magic	16	5	102.242 (8)	96.81 (8)	1.833	2.926 (21)	10.191
7	Mavericks	14	7	101.595 (11)	96.119 (6)	2	2.433 (26)	9.91
8	Thunder	11	9	98.7 (19)	95.407 (4)	1.575	4.826 (4)	9.694
9	Spurs	9	9	101.922 (9)	98.434 (13)	1.167	4.244 (7)	8.899
10	Suns	15	6	107.268 (2)	103.623 (26)	2.333	2.78 (23)	8.758
11	Blazers	13	9	101.77 (10)	97.154 (11)	1.591	2.327 (27)	8.534
12	Rockets	11	9	100.425 (15)	98.858 (14)	2.1	4.855 (3)	8.522
13	Heat	11	9	101.161 (13)	99.088 (15)	1.575	4.209 (8)	7.857
14	Jazz	13	8	101.547 (12)	99.674 (16)	1.5	4.05 (13)	7.423
15	Kings	9	10	102.374 (7)	102.256 (23)	1.474	3.408 (18)	4.999
16	Clippers	9	11	96.946 (23)	96.709 (7)	1.4	2.477 (25)	4.114
17	Bobcats	8	11	92.515 (28)	93.525 (3)	1.658	3.193 (20)	3.841
18	Raptors	9	13	104.957 (4)	108.419 (30)	2.068	4.531 (6)	3.138
19	Pistons	8	12	97.812 (22)	100.712 (21)	1.75	4.165 (9)	3.014
20	Bucks	9	10	96.166 (25)	97.009 (9)	1.658	1.897 (29)	2.712
21	Hornets	8	11	98.73 (18)	103.317 (25)	1.842	5.148 (1)	2.403
22	Wizards	7	12	96.527 (24)	100.486 (20)	1.842	4.101 (12)	1.984
23	Pacers	6	12	93.748 (26)	97.065 (10)	1.75	3.407 (19)	1.841
24	Knicks	7	15	99.299 (17)	103.214 (24)	1.591	4.138 (11)	1.814
25	Warriors	6	14	98.389 (21)	104.47 (28)	1.925	4.741 (5)	0.586
26	Sixers	5	16	98.548 (20)	104.198 (27)	2	4.017 (14)	0.367
27	Bulls	7	11	93.217 (27)	100.485 (19)	2.139	5.062 (2)	-0.068
28	Grizzlies	8	12	99.749 (16)	104.768 (29)	2.1	2.827 (22)	-0.092
29	Timberwolves	3	17	90.708 (29)	102.048 (22)	1.575	4.155 (10)	-5.61
30	Nets	1	19	88.219 (30)	100.367 (18)	2.1	3.724 (16)	-6.323

Amazing how it is starting to round into last year, isn’t it? In particular:

• The top 7 teams in the rankings this week were all second round teams a year ago.  The only missing one, Houston, is 12th.
• The Celtics create a little bit of breathing room with a very strong 4-0 trip, including solid wins in Miami, San Antonio and Oklahoma City, the latter the second half of a back to back
• With the naked eye, the Lakers still look like the best team in the league.  That said, the low road modifier shows they have had the most home friendly schedule in the league.  That will swing a little most likely.
• After some early hand wringing, the Cavaliers have cracked the Top 5.  Defense is up to where it usually is, and the three point shooting has been outstanding, giving LeBron the support he needs.  The frontcourt still needs settling, but what they have now is good enough to win a lot of games.
• Suns defense is slipping.  Their offense is still 2nd, but the 26th ranked defense won’t cut it.  The latter D’Antoni teams still had Top 10/Top half defenses – predicated by not fouling and funneling long two-pointers.  Right now the Suns lack of resistance could cause them a problem – on the other hand the home games have yet to start piling up.

Week 5 NBA Power Rankings

And suddenly, some of the men separate from the boys this week – as usual, here is how we calculate this stuff, and here are the results:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Celtics	13	4	102.629 (8)	93.366 (3)	1.441	1.889 (28)	12.593
2	Hawks	12	4	104.922 (2)	98.098 (13)	1.969	3.648 (14)	12.442
3	Lakers	13	3	99.679 (14)	91.982 (1)	0.875	3.763 (12)	12.335
4	Suns	14	3	109.263 (1)	101.532 (22)	2.265	1.899 (27)	11.895
5	Mavericks	13	5	102.647 (7)	96.356 (6)	1.944	3.221 (18)	11.456
6	Spurs	9	6	103.366 (5)	98.136 (14)	1.167	4.178 (10)	10.574
7	Thunder	9	8	97.863 (22)	94.655 (4)	1.853	5.114 (3)	10.174
8	Blazers	12	7	102.238 (10)	95.893 (5)	1.658	2.106 (26)	10.108
9	Cavaliers	12	5	102.18 (11)	96.742 (9)	1.853	2.118 (25)	9.408
10	Magic	14	5	100.666 (12)	96.48 (8)	1.842	2.981 (22)	9.009
11	Jazz	10	7	102.82 (6)	100.336 (19)	1.441	4.449 (8)	8.374
12	Nuggets	12	5	104.625 (4)	98.763 (15)	1.853	0.646 (30)	8.36
13	Rockets	9	8	100.04 (13)	99.59 (18)	1.853	6.012 (1)	8.314
14	Kings	8	8	102.289 (9)	100.794 (20)	1.531	3.493 (17)	6.52
15	Heat	9	7	98.831 (18)	97.192 (10)	1.094	3.181 (19)	5.913
16	Clippers	8	10	98.028 (20)	97.592 (11)	1.556	2.588 (24)	4.58
17	Bobcats	7	9	91.703 (28)	92.071 (2)	1.75	3.124 (20)	4.505
18	Bucks	9	7	97.538 (23)	96.457 (7)	1.531	1.709 (29)	4.321
19	Raptors	7	11	104.752 (3)	108.399 (30)	1.944	5.11 (4)	3.407
20	Pistons	6	11	97.951 (21)	101.627 (23)	1.853	5.095 (5)	3.272
21	Hornets	7	10	99.182 (17)	104.172 (28)	1.853	5.852 (2)	2.715
22	Bulls	6	9	93.38 (27)	98.943 (16)	2.333	5.053 (6)	1.823
23	Pacers	6	9	95.31 (26)	97.755 (12)	1.4	2.686 (23)	1.64
24	Warriors	6	10	99.637 (16)	103.985 (27)	1.969	3.921 (11)	1.542
25	Wizards	5	10	95.522 (25)	101.274 (21)	1.867	4.448 (9)	0.562
26	Sixers	5	13	98.336 (19)	103.909 (26)	1.944	3.552 (15)	-0.077
27	Grizzlies	6	12	99.645 (15)	106.304 (29)	2.139	3.496 (16)	-1.024
28	Knicks	3	14	96.373 (24)	103.349 (25)	1.647	3.69 (13)	-1.639
29	Timberwolves	2	15	89.215 (29)	102.324 (24)	1.647	4.732 (7)	-6.729
30	Nets	0	17	86.603 (30)	99.315 (17)	2.265	3.067 (21)	-7.38

With this week of sudden change, some observations:

• Well, that was quick, wasn’t it?  After a one week dash to #1, the Blazers with a 1-2 week highlighted by a disastrous loss at home to Memphis plunge to #8.  To be fair, this is probably closer to the true reality of this team’s talent.  Elite is not far away for them, but the rotation is still in flux.
• By contrast, the Lakers have suddenly vaulted in the #1 defensive spot, and are slowly charging up the list.  On the other hand, with the league’s most home tilted schedule so far, their margin of victory is a LITTLE compromised.
• The big positive move of the week was Phoenix.  They have had a hellacious road tilted schedule but suddenly this week they got their shooting shoes on, and have not just moved up to #1 in the league in offense, but #1 by 4.3 points over 2nd place.  To put it in perspective, 4.3 points less than the #2 team is the 12th rated offense.  It is hard to get the wipeout by LA out of one’s mind – but the team’s offense is playing very very confidently.  The 22nd rank defense needs to perk up in the long run (contrary to popular thought, D’Antoni’s teams were not bad defensively) – maybe not #1 but certainly upper half – but no reason that this team can’t stay in some sort of hunt for the regular season.
• Seeing the Raptors last Friday against the Celtics on the TV – I can attest, their defense and effort is every bit worthy of their 30th ranking.  Wow.