Dare to be Stupid – I’ll Take “Not Blake Griffin” for $200 plus …

Well, as you probably have figured out by now – there was a guy, and a car …

With  Blake Griffin taking the world by storm, so – it makes the much slower development of Hasheem Thabeet, the Grizzlies pick – 2nd overall – all the more stark.  And today the Grizzlies tapped out:

Rockets get Hasheem Thabeet and the Grizzlies 1st round pick in 2011

Grizzlies get Shane Battier

The Grizzlies needed a small forward with Rudy Gay’s injury.  Battier can back up the two and four positions as well.  He is a good glue player, and the Grizzlies have a unique opportunity to race up the West standings – especially with Denver and Utah waving white flags earlier.  But this does bury the lede a bit – that the Grizzlies could not get a quality role player with the former #2 overall pick.  Yikes.

The Rockets continue to collect assets.  They get a second first round pick (of three – keep reading).  They were all dressed up looking for a dance partner, but could not get anyone to bit on Yao’s insured contract, which surprises me.  So that being said, they are able to get a mid first round pick from the Grizzlies and a chance to develop Thabeet.  He has been a bust so far, but he is 7’3″, and there is no reason he cannot develop into a useful guy.  Just amazing to see the Grizzlies give up on that chance so quickly and so desperately.

************************************************************************************************************************************************************

In another deal:

Suns get Aaron Brooks

Rockets get Goran Dragic and the Suns’ first round pick in 2011

The Rockets had a point guard glut – it’s clear they have chosen Kyle Lowry over Brooks – who is really better suited as a poor man’s Leandro Barbosa type anyway.  They also get a first rounder in the next draft – and thus another asset.

The Suns get some backcourt help.  It’s pretty clear that they see the newly Charmin soft bottom of the playoff bubble – and want to try to make the playoffs.  The wisdom of this strategy long term is dubious – but I can’t argue with a team trying to make the tournament.  This definitely helps them to that end – Brooks brings the speed and quickness the team always has been deft with using.

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 15

It’s Tuesday, so we know what that means?  As always, the methodology is here:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Heat	37	14	103.715 (4)	95.402 (4)	1.853	1.215 (29)	11.382
2	Spurs	42	8	103.918 (3)	96.34 (7)	1.61	2.124 (9)	11.311
3	Celtics	38	13	100.47 (13)	93.339 (2)	1.647	1.425 (25)	10.203
4	Lakers	36	16	104.208 (2)	97.248 (8)	1.683	1.256 (28)	9.9
5	Magic	32	20	101.435 (9)	96.057 (6)	1.817	1.582 (21)	8.777
6	Bulls	34	16	98.613 (17)	92.728 (1)	1.61	1.271 (27)	8.767
7	Mavericks	36	15	101.35 (10)	97.592 (10)	1.578	2.303 (4)	7.639
8	Hornets	32	21	98.567 (18)	95.264 (3)	1.717	2.149 (8)	7.169
9	Thunder	33	17	103.144 (5)	100.931 (18)	1.75	2.321 (2)	6.284
10	Nuggets	30	22	104.404 (1)	101.782 (23)	1.615	1.695 (17)	5.932
11	Knicks	26	24	102.783 (6)	101.299 (20)	1.82	1.787 (15)	5.09
12	Hawks	33	18	100.001 (14)	97.97 (12)	1.853	0.658 (30)	4.541
13	Rockets	25	28	101.583 (8)	101.291 (19)	1.915	2.198 (6)	4.405
14	Sixers	23	27	98.741 (16)	97.993 (13)	1.82	1.401 (26)	3.969
15	Jazz	31	22	100.769 (11)	100.652 (17)	1.717	1.608 (18)	3.441
16	Grizzlies	27	26	97.841 (21)	97.825 (11)	1.915	1.493 (23)	3.423
17	Blazers	28	24	99.039 (15)	99.218 (15)	1.817	1.762 (16)	3.4
18	Suns	24	25	102.638 (7)	103.041 (28)	1.714	1.879 (14)	3.19
19	Bucks	19	30	93.734 (29)	95.657 (5)	1.929	2.314 (3)	2.319
20	Pacers	21	27	96.309 (24)	97.398 (9)	1.75	1.587 (20)	2.248
21	Warriors	22	28	100.496 (12)	102.918 (27)	1.61	2.073 (10)	1.261
22	Bobcats	22	29	95.769 (25)	98.143 (14)	1.716	1.594 (19)	0.935
23	Clippers	19	31	98.01 (20)	101.435 (21)	1.4	2.417 (1)	0.391
24	Pistons	19	32	97.561 (22)	102.08 (25)	1.853	1.976 (11)	-0.69
25	Timberwolves	12	39	97.146 (23)	102.299 (26)	1.784	1.94 (12)	-1.429
26	Kings	12	36	95.169 (26)	99.997 (16)	1.531	1.45 (24)	-1.847
27	Raptors	14	37	98.099 (19)	103.965 (29)	1.853	1.886 (13)	-2.127
28	Wizards	13	37	94.852 (28)	102.003 (24)	1.75	2.196 (7)	-3.204
29	Nets	15	37	94.972 (27)	101.658 (22)	1.817	1.56 (22)	-3.308
30	Cavaliers	8	44	93.334 (30)	104.713 (30)	2.019	2.276 (5)	-7.084

A few items of interest:

• Last week we discussed the West playoff entrants in lieu of the Jazz’ slide.  The team I forgot to mention were the Rockets – who have done an amazing job hanging in – and fundamentally have a profile and a schedule (both road and difficulty heavy) that seem to indicate there is some room to surge ahead.  The Rockets have hung in largely on offense – where they are ranked a respectable 8th – using strong shot generation ability (7th) to bolster above average shooting numbers.  The Rockets are interesting in that their actual FG% is pretty lousy, but they have made up for it with effective foul shooting and effective three point shooting.  They take a lot of high value shots, and add a low turnover rate, and it makes up for their bad defense.
• The most intriguing story (or perhaps most trite at this point) is the Carmelo Anthony story.  We know that he wants to leave blah blah blah.  What is espcially damning here is that – his team is GOOD, and in a wild West, considering their injuries earlier in the season, could be better.  The Nuggets are the league’s best offense, riding the league’s top TS% (which is driven by the league’s best three point attack and one of the elite foul drawing teams).  Their defense has been worse than normal  – especially a surprising inability to produce turnovers.  But with their injured bigs coming back – it feels like this team could easily rise up a bit if their defense improves just a little.

2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.

 

NBA Trade Deadline – The Final Rush

Well, after much speculation about whether it would be quiet or not – we got a real hoppin trade deadline after all!  So, as a follow up to two other posts on the topic, the final deals:

• Bucks get Royal Ivey, Primoz Brezec and a 2010 2nd Rounder, Sixers get Jodie Meeks and Francisco Elson

Elson is a classic buyout candidate.  Useful big, solid defender, few other recognizable basketball skills.  Jodie Meeks has not shot lights out yet at the pro level, but for anyone who saw him score 54 against Tennessee, we know the kid can stroke it.  Sixers have been a lousy shooting team for years – they could use all the help they get.  The Bucks get a solid backup PG whom they are familiar with and a second round pick – which should be in the mid 30s, this year.  In other words, a deal that made sense for everyone, even if it is low profile.

• Grizzlies get Ronnie Brewer, Jazz get protected 1st Rounder in 2011.

Jazz do not NEED Ronnie Brewer.  That said Brewer is an excellent defender and good efficient player even if he is not a good shooter.  He was good enough to start for a title contender.  The Jazz probably did not hurt themselves that much, but making a money dump when they are a legit Top 4 team in the West is a letdown.  The Grizzlies get themselves a legit rotation player and capable 6th man for what could be an outside the lottery 2011 draft pick.  Hard to get revved up about the Jazz philosophy here.

• Kings get Dominc McGuire, Wizards get $$ and a conditional 2nd Rounder

Not much to say here.  Wizards get below the luxury tax line – and thus could keep Ilgauskas the rest of the year, and the Kings get to see a good defensive specialist sort for the rest of the season, no strings attached.  Let’s move on.

• Bobcats get Theo Ratliff, Spurs get conditional 2nd Rounder

Another straight dump.  Ratliff could make the Bobcats rotation, maybe.  Not sure why I even listed this.

• Bobcats get Tyrus Thomas, Bulls get Flip Murray, Acie Law and future 1st Rounder

Bulls get something for the perpetually intriguing Tyrus Thomas.  Law could be a useful backup PG, though with Derrick Rose there, it is bit of a Maytag repairman job.  Flip Murray is one dimensional – but a dimension who can catch fire (a poor man’s Eddie House).  The 1st Rounder from what I read could take a while to materialize – no earlier than 2012.  For the Bobcats, Thomas’ talent is undeniable – though he has been a knucklehead and shown the talent only in flashes.  He can walk after the season – for a playoff push, it’s a good free look for Charlotte.

• Rockets get Jordan Hill, Jared Jeffries, Kevin Martin, Hilton Armstrong, The Knicks 1st Rounder in 2012 (Top 5 protected) and the option to switch picks with the Knicks in 2011 as long as it’s not #1.  The Knicks get Tracy McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez.  The Kings get Carl Landry, Larry Hughes and Joey Dorsey.

A lot to unpack here.  First, the Rockets did exceptionally well.  Kevin Martin is the perimeter guy they needed, and add him to Yao next season, it’s a great place to start.  Jordan Hill did not play in NY, but that does not mean he can’t be a fit in Houston.  Hilton Armstrong sucks, but hey, a big body is a big body.  Depending on what the Knicks do in free agency, the draft picks could have significant value also.

The Knicks did very well, getting Sergio Rodriguez, who has shown tons of ability in Spain, but it has not translated in the NBA.  One’d think he’d be a good fit with Mike D’Antoni.  They also cleared the salary, so suddenly they are in a position to be huge players in free agency next season.  Can they get two max guys?  Probably not, but they will be a lot better quickly.  It came at a cost, but this trade makes sense.

The Kings also did very well.  Kevin Martin is a very good player but not in their long term plans.  So they turned him into cap space and a young starting caliber big in Carl Landry.  Good all around.

• Celtics get Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry.  Knicks get Eddie House, JR Giddens and Bill Walker

Celtics got a guy who can be an explosive 6th man for a guy who has been an explosive 6th man and 2 guys who don’t play.  Robinson has more skills than House and House has been meh this season.  Knicks get to move more salary and get a guy D’Antoni is fond of.  Overall a small sensible deal for the Celtics, who need to change their team energy.

Week 4 NBA Power Rankings

If you want to know, how I do this, check here.  Otherwise, cut to the chase:

Some observations:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Blazers	11	5	102.334 (6)	93.088 (2)	1.75	2.779 (21)	13.774
2	Hawks	11	3	105.086 (3)	98.108 (15)	1.75	4.742 (8)	13.47
3	Celtics	10	4	100.925 (10)	91.466 (1)	1.5	1.383 (28)	12.341
4	Nuggets	9	4	104.52 (4)	98.334 (16)	2.154	3.427 (15)	11.767
5	Lakers	10	3	98.444 (18)	93.356 (3)	0.808	5.614 (3)	11.51
6	Rockets	8	6	101.272 (8)	97.809 (13)	2	5.05 (4)	10.513
7	Mavericks	10	3	100.29 (14)	94.603 (5)	1.885	2.931 (18)	10.502
8	Suns	11	3	107.45 (1)	102.923 (26)	2.25	2.884 (19)	9.661
9	Magic	11	3	101.004 (9)	95.636 (8)	1.75	2.123 (25)	9.24
10	Cavaliers	10	4	101.303 (7)	96.016 (10)	1.75	1.35 (29)	8.388
11	Spurs	6	6	103.34 (5)	100.678 (19)	1.167	4.384 (12)	8.213
12	Thunder	7	7	96.295 (23)	95.121 (6)	2	5.021 (5)	8.196
13	Heat	8	5	100.051 (15)	95.769 (9)	1.077	2.826 (20)	8.184
14	Raptors	6	8	106.949 (2)	108.37 (30)	2	4.844 (7)	5.422
15	Jazz	7	6	100.553 (13)	101.558 (20)	1.885	4.429 (11)	5.309
16	Bucks	8	4	98.182 (19)	95.173 (7)	1.458	0.374 (30)	4.841
17	Kings	5	8	100.801 (12)	102.83 (25)	1.885	4.655 (10)	4.511
18	Pistons	5	9	97.757 (22)	100.2 (18)	2.25	4.34 (13)	4.147
19	Bulls	6	7	92.821 (27)	96.911 (12)	2.154	5.637 (2)	3.7
20	Clippers	6	9	98.073 (20)	98.483 (17)	1.4	2.645 (22)	3.635
21	Pacers	5	6	95.87 (24)	96.602 (11)	1.273	2.421 (24)	2.963
22	Hornets	6	9	99.999 (16)	105.027 (29)	1.867	6.055 (1)	2.894
23	Warriors	4	8	100.84 (11)	104.779 (28)	2.042	3.022 (16)	1.125
24	Bobcats	4	9	89.232 (28)	94.207 (4)	1.885	3.675 (14)	0.585
25	Wizards	3	9	95.236 (25)	102.245 (23)	2.042	4.911 (6)	-0.056
26	Grizzlies	5	9	99.087 (17)	104.196 (27)	1.75	3.019 (17)	-0.341
27	Sixers	5	8	97.832 (21)	102.567 (24)	1.615	1.545 (27)	-1.574
28	Knicks	3	10	95.121 (26)	101.56 (21)	1.346	2.609 (23)	-2.485
29	Nets	0	13	86.528 (30)	97.956 (14)	1.885	2.047 (26)	-7.497
30	Timberwolves	1	13	87.692 (29)	101.699 (22)	1.75	4.725 (9)	-7.532

Some of this week’s takeaways:

• Given that the Celtics last year started out 27-3, that there is not one 2 loss team left this early in the season is kind of striking. The teams we expected to suck out loud (Grizzlies, Griffin-less Clippers, I’m looking at you) are actually just ordinarily mediocre.
• A new #1 emerges in Portland.  The Celtics slip to #3 on the strength (weakness) of a ghastly shooting night against the Magic and a very mediocre effort against the Knicks (and frankly, a fairly desultory one against the Warriors).  As a fan, I was getting used to my Lester Hudson sightings.
• Blazers winning on the strength of an efficient 6th ranked offense, which might not be highlighted by announcers because of their very slow tempo (2nd to last in the league).  Their 2nd ranked defense has been a revelation too – Greg Oden is quietly having an outstanding season – and if he knew how to play without fouling, Bill Simmons’ homoerotic Kevin Durant love would be kind of unfounded.
• Wow the Timberwolves are bad.  With a good PG in Sessions and an interesting rookie in Flynn and a very capable post player, how they are so constipated offensively is hard to fathom.  At least the Nets have been ravaged by injuries. (btw: how can Lawrence Frank be on the chopping block when his entire starting five and only all star has been hurt most of the season?)
• Rockets are #6 still – and still, I am stunned.

Week 2 NBA Power Rankings

If you want the methodology, go back to Week 1:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Celtics	7	1	103.531 (7)	87.765 (2)	1.75	0.844 (29)	18.359
2	Heat	5	1	101.608 (13)	91.216 (4)	1.167	3.471 (16)	15.029
3	Rockets	4	2	103.308 (8)	96.995 (11)	1.75	6.575 (2)	14.638
4	Lakers	6	1	101.267 (16)	94.329 (8)	1	5.551 (5)	13.49
5	Blazers	4	3	101.749 (12)	96.188 (10)	1	6.601 (1)	13.162
6	Mavericks	4	2	101.593 (14)	94.242 (7)	1.75	3.505 (14)	12.606
7	Nuggets	5	2	106.883 (3)	100.163 (15)	2.5	2.792 (21)	12.012
8	Hawks	5	2	104.938 (6)	100.19 (16)	2	4.796 (8)	11.543
9	Thunder	3	3	95.693 (23)	92.266 (6)	1.167	6.568 (3)	11.162
10	Suns	7	1	106.563 (4)	102.543 (20)	2.625	3.071 (20)	9.716
11	Cavaliers	4	3	98.068 (19)	91.808 (5)	1.5	1.925 (27)	9.685
12	Magic	5	2	105.351 (5)	103.003 (21)	2	2.293 (26)	6.642
13	Spurs	3	3	107.107 (2)	106.852 (28)	1.75	3.761 (12)	5.765
14	Bucks	3	2	90.176 (28)	86.328 (1)	2.1	-1.071 (30)	4.877
15	Raptors	3	4	111.23 (1)	111.922 (29)	2	3.361 (18)	4.669
16	Bulls	4	2	91.286 (26)	95.196 (9)	1.75	6.366 (4)	4.205
17	Clippers	3	5	97.808 (20)	97.828 (13)	1.313	2.329 (25)	3.62
18	Hornets	3	5	100.643 (17)	104.083 (24)	2.188	4.773 (9)	3.521
19	Pistons	3	4	97.447 (21)	98.78 (14)	2	2.519 (23)	3.186
20	Wizards	2	5	96.18 (22)	100.579 (17)	2	5.491 (6)	3.091
21	Pacers	2	3	93.661 (24)	97.561 (12)	1.4	5.407 (7)	2.908
22	Kings	3	4	103.213 (9)	105.374 (26)	2	2.409 (24)	2.248
23	Jazz	3	4	100.17 (18)	103.915 (23)	1.5	4.185 (10)	1.94
24	Bobcats	3	3	87.241 (30)	90.962 (3)	1.75	3.715 (13)	1.745
25	Sixers	3	4	102.321 (10)	106.595 (27)	1.5	2.557 (22)	-0.217
26	Warriors	2	4	101.337 (15)	104.678 (25)	1.167	1.563 (28)	-0.612
27	Knicks	1	7	93.633 (25)	101.824 (19)	1.313	3.114 (19)	-3.765
28	Grizzlies	1	6	102.18 (11)	112.154 (30)	2.5	3.493 (15)	-3.981
29	Timberwolves	1	7	90.867 (27)	103.771 (22)	1.75	4.06 (11)	-7.094
30	Nets	0	7	88.598 (29)	101.638 (18)	2	3.369 (17)	-7.671

Some observations:

1. The Nets stink.  They had a dead tired motivation-less Celtics team in, had a chance to win and still let it get away.
2. The Magic, who were the top defensive team a year ago using these sorts of metrics, are a paltry 21st so far.  It’s an underreported story, but their defense is why they won a year ago.
3. The Warriors only moved up to 26 on the strength of a 146-105 pasting of fellow dreck Minnesota.
4. The Celtics still #1, but the defense slipped to #2.  The Suns diced them up good last Friday, and hopefully it’s tired legs (4 games in 5 nights) and not something larger.
5. Suns obviously a huge surprise.  Their #10 ranking is really due to the #20 defense.  That said, an adequate defense has been good enough for their really good teams – so maybe this is not so bad.
6. The Rockets still in the Top 5.  Incredible.

Week 1 NBA Power Rankings

With one week in the books, we are in a position to put together our first edition of NBA Power Rankings.  Now these rankings are cumulative over the season.  I thought of, like John Hollinger does, trying to add a factor in to emphasize recent results, but any choice (time interval) would be arbitratry.  Best to stick with the tried and true basic method.  One caveat – I do data entry as close to the games finishing as possible, so if later corrections are made by the league, my rankings might not capture them.  Anyway, the methodology:

Real Offense = Points per possession times the league average number of possessions per game, denoted in table by Off, with the rank in parentheses

Real Defense = Points per possession allowed times the league average number of possessions with a twist … instead of how many FTs a team had scored against it, I take the league FT% and apply it to the FT attempts allowed … a team does not get credit for luck, denoted as Def

Possessions = FGA + 0.44 * FTAs + Turnovers – Offensive Rebounds … this is familiar from the Hollinger stats on ESPN

MarginA: Real Offense – Real Defense

Road factor: Assume that being on the road is a 3.5 point handicap over a regularly paced game.  So the percentage of road games times 3.5 is the road factor. Denoted as Road

MarginB = MarginA + Road Factor

ScheduleA = first component of strength of schedule.  The average MarginB of a team’s opponents

ScheduleB = the other component of strength of schedule.  The average ScheduleA of a team’s opponents.

SOS in table is strength of schedule = ScheduleA + ScheduleB

Overall Rating = MarginB + ScheduleA + ScheduleB

With the methodology cleared up, the ratings through November 3

#	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Celtics	4	0	106.646 (7)	86.106 (1)	0.875	3.264 (18)	24.68
2	Heat	3	0	103.439 (11)	87.638 (2)	1.167	1.614 (26)	18.582
3	Magic	3	0	115.83 (1)	105.683 (23)	2.333	2.562 (22)	15.041
4	Rockets	3	1	104.258 (10)	98.384 (11)	2.625	5.833 (5)	14.331
5	Sixers	2	1	110.012 (3)	104.035 (21)	2.333	5.505 (6)	13.815
6	Nuggets	3	0	113.359 (2)	102.838 (20)	1.167	2.032 (23)	13.72
7	Mavericks	2	1	95.168 (23)	90.411 (4)	2.333	5.153 (8)	12.243
8	Wizards	2	1	106.654 (6)	100.04 (13)	2.333	3.003 (20)	11.95
9	Hawks	2	1	105.092 (9)	100.696 (15)	1.167	5.158 (7)	10.72
10	Blazers	2	2	99.207 (15)	97.857 (10)	1.75	6.712 (3)	9.813
11	Cavaliers	2	2	98.186 (18)	94.055 (8)	1.75	3.785 (16)	9.666
12	Thunder	2	1	95.878 (20)	90.475 (5)	1.167	2.712 (21)	9.282
13	Suns	3	0	109.594 (4)	100.846 (17)	1.167	-1.721 (30)	8.194
14	Lakers	2	1	96.414 (19)	93.859 (7)	0	4.99 (10)	7.545
15	Bucks	1	1	90.969 (28)	91.754 (6)	1.75	6.051 (4)	7.015
16	Spurs	2	1	105.965 (8)	101.293 (18)	1.167	0.898 (28)	6.737
17	Raptors	1	2	106.783 (5)	108.085 (29)	1.167	4.755 (12)	4.62
18	Pistons	1	2	95.286 (22)	96.263 (9)	2.333	1.935 (24)	3.291
19	Bulls	1	2	92.576 (27)	102.827 (19)	2.333	9.154 (1)	1.235
20	Clippers	1	4	95.328 (21)	99.239 (12)	1.4	3.441 (17)	0.93
21	Hornets	1	3	99.327 (14)	105.459 (22)	2.625	3.141 (19)	-0.365
22	Jazz	1	2	101.53 (13)	108.021 (28)	1.167	4.579 (13)	-0.745
23	Knicks	1	3	98.838 (16)	105.9 (25)	1.75	4.34 (14)	-0.972
24	Bobcats	2	2	82.014 (30)	89.969 (3)	1.75	4.76 (11)	-1.446
25	Timberwolves	1	3	94.422 (24)	100.717 (16)	1.75	1.386 (27)	-3.159
26	Kings	1	3	98.234 (17)	105.852 (24)	2.625	0.276 (29)	-4.718
27	Pacers	0	2	94.219 (25)	107.794 (27)	1.75	7.036 (2)	-4.789
28	Warriors	0	2	93.903 (26)	105.925 (26)	1.75	5.144 (9)	-5.128
29	Nets	0	4	88.859 (29)	100.687 (14)	2.625	3.925 (15)	-5.277
30	Grizzlies	1	3	102.96 (12)	113.076 (30)	1.75	1.894 (25)	-6.471

Obviously the takeaway from this is that its early. However, the Celtics defensive form seems back to 2008 levels, or at least reasonably close. The big surprise of course is the Rockets, who are 3-2 against very quality opponents. They do it with mirrors and Darryl Morey knows how to find random dudes and Rick Adelman is a very underappreciated coach. This might last in some form. Maybe not 50 wins, but still 45 wins with this outfit is something.