Dare to be Stupid: The Dwight Howard Trade

Let’s start with one thing.  I don’t know what offers the Orlando Magic actually had here.  Were they really poring through various offers of other teams’ trash?  Was this really some Building 19 special we were dealing with?  It all seems terribly weird for the league’s 2nd best player.  Yeah yeah yeah, it is chic to say that Kevin Durant is the league’s best non-LeBron James player, but Dwight Howard’s total impact on both sides of the floor (as well as the general VORP factors associated with centers) is too hard to ignore.  So, lapsing into Hubie Brown’s cadence, you have the 2nd best player in the league – one who could be a free agent after this season, what is he worth?

We know that Houston amassed trade assets by the boatload leading up to this – between some credible draft picks, cap space and players who know how to play basketball and have some upside – yeah not star upside, but rotation level upside.  We know that Atlanta could have offered Al Horford and Jeff Teague – granted their motivation to do so might have been modest considering that they could have tried to sign Howard outright after the season.  It is hard to think that Aaron Affalo, Al Harrington, Nikova Vucevic, Moe Harkless, a bunch of low value draft picks is a fair price for the 2nd best player in the league.  I mean, that is a combined 0 players who are likely to be key players on the next good Orlando team.  Apparently Orlando has a beat on Jabari Parker in 2014 or something – otherwise this is pretty horrible return for a truly great (albeit truly flaky) player.

For the Lakers, this is obviously heist.  After trading a bunch of picks they don’t want for Steve Nash, getting Dwight Howard for Andrew Bynum and a sack of potatoes is pretty amazing.  With Antawn Jamison augmenting their depth, the Lakers are still way thinner than what you’d prefer and relying on some old guys with big egos (Kobe cough cough), and the pieces do not fit precisely.  But they have four of the 25 best players in the game!  Is Dwight Howard healthy and capable of being the next great Lakers center and phase into the leader of the franchise?  Well he won’t have to lead right away.  Lakers have moved up to a solid 3rd in the pecking order behind Miami and OKC.

Denver’s role here is weird.  On one hand you can blame them for midwifing a trade that reduces their chance of winning.  That said, you’d make the Affalo-Harrington for Iguodala deal tomorrow.  And he is perfect for George Karl’s system – athletic, elite defender.  Given Denver’s model, this was a really shrewd trade.  And really, Lakers or Thunder or Spurs – they probably were not going to usurp any of them anyhoo.  They get a solid A- here.

The Sixers you have to wonder – would they have amnestied Elton Brand if they knew that they could have gotten Andrew Bynum.  Doubtlessly that would have been better than Bynum and Spencer Hawes or whatever.  But that said, Andrew Bynum – health risk and all – is the best player legitimately available to acquire outside of Dwight and they landed him.  Bynum is from Jersey and the Sixers will have an edge in money they can offer.  Bynum is no lock to sign, but the Sixers have as good a chance as anybody – maybe better than that. Studs don’t show up every day – so when you can get one – ask questions later.

Overall Grades: Magic D, Lakers A+, Nuggets A-, Sixers A-

 

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #10 – Final Report and Playoff Preview

First as you have probably seen from the last couple of entries, people still have Cystic Fibrosis – blah blah blah – click here to help …

FINALLY.  The best of the playoff seasons is upon us.  Of course this was after a truly execrable last couple of weeks of the season where teams were playing scrubs shamelessly while still charging full prices.  The Tuesday Celtics-Heat game was a particular atrocity.  So the rankings could be skewed a tiny bit.  But whatever, the playoffs are here and looks at the series are coming up … how have the rankings changed since we last did this?

1. (2) Bulls (50-16)
2. (4) Spurs (50-16)
3. (1) Thunder (47-19)
4. (3) Heat (46-20)
5. (5) Sixers (35-31)
6. (10) Nugggets (38-28)
7. (6) Celtics (39-27)
8. (8) Hawks (40-26)
9. (7) Grizzlies (41-25)
10. (15) Clippers (40-26)
11. (13) Mavericks (36-30)
12. (9) Lakers (41-25)
13. (14) Knicks (36-30)
14. (16) Pacers (42-24)
15. (11) Magic (37-29)
16. (12) Rockets (34-32)
17. (18) Suns (33-33)
18. (20) Jazz (36-30)
19. (19) Bucks (31-35)
20. (17) Blazers (28-38)
21. (21) Timberwolves (26-40)
22. (22) Warriors (23-43)
23. (24) Hornets (21-45)
24. (23) Raptors (23-43)
25. (25) Kings (22-44)
26. (29) Wizards (20-46)
27. (27) Pistons (25-42)
28. (28) Nets (22-44)
29. (26) Wizards (21-45)
30. (30) Bobcats (7-59)

It’s the playoffs!  So – quick looks at your first round series are in order:

• (E1) Bulls v (E8) Sixers – This is #1 vs #5.  What a matchup!  However, the Sixers have really stumbled down the stretch, but the metrics have been strong as the Sixers blowouts early still have resonance.  The Bulls with Derrick Rose’s dicey injury situation could be great – but they could be tricky.  Defense will be the order of the day (#2 v #3) and neither team is great from outside.  I can’t imagine the Bulls losing this but the Sixers match up well with them, better than they do with the Heat.  Bulls in 7
• (E4) Celtics v (E5) Hawks – #7 vs #8.  Interestingly here the lower seed has home court.  The Celtics have been very strong down the stretch.  But so have the Hawks, both in the Top 6 since the trade deadline.  The Celtics have serious issues with rebounding and size, but the Hawks are 26th in offensive rebounding, so it is hard to read that as a huge edge.  The games have all been close in their head to head.  Really more of a coin flip than the experts purport.  Hawks in 7
• (E2) Heat v (E7) Knicks – #4 vs #13 Fun series with two defensively adept teams.  Anthony and LeBron will be a great matchup and the Novak/Smith bench for the Knicks could explode.  But it is hard to envision the Knicks winning in Miami.  This is a fun series but Heat in 6
• (E3) Pacers v (E6) Magic – The Pacers have the 5th best record in the league but merely #14 in rankings.  This describes the Pacers in general – a nice team, lot of good players, but is this the juice to win a playoff series?  The Magic will be motivated with no Dwight Howard and “nobody believing in them”. Did the Pacers more competitive than it seemed result vs Chicago last year inform them or will the Magic’s winning experience do it?  Without Glen Davis, the Magic just don’t have enough players now – good or otherwise.  Pacers in 5
  
• (W1) Spurs v (W8) Jazz – Spurs can flat out score, but the Jazz can attack with size.  Will the Spurs lose in round 1 again?  Frankly I’d have more faith in the Jazz if their defense was not so mediocre.  Against the buzz saw offense of San Antonio it is tough sledding.  Spurs in 5
• (W4) Grizzlies v (W5) Clippers – Grizzlies are a sexy pick to upset the apple cart.  However this is not last year’s Zach Randolph.  Meanwhile the Clippers just have more better players and one of the game’s best all around players and leaders.  Look how the Hornets stole 2 games against the Lakers with Chris Paul and nobody – he is just that good.  In the playoffs, the stars play more.  Lob City is not done yet.  Clippers in 6
• (W2) Thunder v (W7) Mavericks – Hard series to peg.  On paper, Thunder should rip through this.  In actuality, Dallas can throw a lot of junk D at them and make the Thunder really work for it.  But it won’t be enough.  Thunder in 7
  
• (W3) Lakers v (W6) Nuggets – Denver has depth.  The Lakers don’t.  Denver has speed, and the Lakers have real issues with that.  But the Lakers have all the really good players here and their size and ability to dictate in the half court.  I hope Denver can make this fun.  I think the Lakers grind it out enough.  Lakers in 6

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #5

With football gone, now we are getting the important stuff.  How have the rankings changed since we last did this?

1. (1) Bulls (23-7)
2. (3) Heat (22-7)
3. (2) Sixers (20-9)
4. (4) Thunder (21-6)
5. (8) Spurs (19-9)
6. (6) Hawks (18-10)
7. (5) Blazers (15-13)
8. (7) Nuggets (16-12)
9. (13) Mavericks (18-11)
10. (9) Lakers (16-12)
11. (11) Clippers (17-9)
12. (10) Celtics (15-12)
13. (14) Rockets (16-12)
14. (12) Pacers (17-10)
15. (17) Magic (18-11)
16. (15) Grizzlies (14-14)
17. (16) Timberwolves (13-16)
18. (18) Jazz (14-13)
19. (21) Warriors (11-14)
20. (19) Bucks (12-16)
21. (22) Knicks (13-15)
22. (20) Suns (12-16)
23. (24) Cavaliers (10-16)
24. (23) Hornets (5-23)
25. (25) Raptors (9-20)
26. (26) Kings (10-17)
27. (28) Wizards (6-22)
28. (27) Nets (8-21)
29. (29) Pistons (8-21)
30. (30) Bobcats (3-25)

Some notes:

1. We start with a trip to Oakland and the league’s most Quixotic fans – Warriors fans.  For anybody who watched their shocking upset of the Mavericks in 2007, the ability of the fans to lift a team is palpable there – it sounded like the old Chicago Stadium, and that’s saying something.  Alas, that upset has been the extent of the highlights on the court.  Indeed the last few years we have had bad teams, but entertaining ones that could light up the scoreboard.  With Mark Jackson taking over as coach, there was a commitment to a more defense, championship timber club.  What is interesting though is that the defensive culture in Golden State is still as lax as ever – while the offense is actually much better.  The numbers are a bit muted as these Warriors are middle of the road in terms of pace – but this is the most efficient offense (relative to the league) Golden State has had recently.  What is particularly interesting comparing side by side is how little things have changed.  They still shoot the three both very well and very frequently.  They still don’t get to the line hardly at all – and they are a pretty shaky rebounding team (and indeed substantially worse offensively).  However – they take care of the ball a bit better and are shooting their 2-pointers a lot better, enough to be 4th in the league in FG%.  This is also though a harbinger of rough times maybe – 2 pt FG% is pretty fickle, and one thinks there might be some regression coming.  Scanning the personnel, it is not like there is a huge change in the shape of the offense.  The defense as mentioned before is as bad as ever – and they are still a horrendous defensive rebounding side, and are near the bottom in sending opponents to the line.  Jackson has the team gambling less defensively – but it has not shown in the final results.  The Warriors have a ways to go for the positive changes in ownership to reflect in the product.
2. Checking in at 18-11, and starting to move up the ladder are the Magic.  Of course 2 weeks ago, we left them with a disastrous week, featuring a 56 point outing at Boston and blown 27 point lead hosting Boston (yay Boston).  Since then though the Magic have perked up.  Really, we always hear about the psychodrama surrounding Dwight Howard – but possibly he has found some contentment (or resignation) in the current situation.  Despite the Magic’s offensive issues a couple of weeks back, where they had been struggling was on the defensive end of the floor.  Last year the Magic were 3rd in the league defensively despite having very little defensive muscle besides Howard.  Earlier in the year the team had been scuffling, but we see them up to 12th now.  The Magic in the past have focused on defending without fouling (not gambling) and superior rebounding.  This year, the rebounding has been there but the attention to detail in defense has not – but it has improved.  Magic up to a reasonable 11th in FG%, and so up their fortunes have come with it.
3. This week’s edition would be incomplete without noting the jump the Knicks have made.  I have no real metric argument here, just a chance to rant a bit on Jeremy Lin.  The Knicks themselves are still a shaky offensive team with a surprisingly good defense considering D’Antoni’s reputation (2nd in the league in forced turnovers, 7th in defensive rebounding – they just don’t give up a ton of looks at the basket which makes up for their meh FG%).  But Lin of course has had the best first 4 starts in league history.  You have to be realistic of course – he is not this good, very few players are.  That said, he is 6’3″ 200 lbs – basically Chauncey Billups’ size.  He has a lot of steals, rebounds, gets to the line a lot.  Unlike most small school kids, he is an elite athlete.  He needs to shoot better, but that you can improve.  Lin is a rotation caliber PG right now, and the Knicks have none of those – and there is no reason he cannot be a solid starter for a long time.
4. The big move up this week has been Dallas.  At 18-11, it is amazing to see Rick Carlisle cobble together this start despite the issues they had with conditioning and injuries.  More amazing is how despite losing Tyson Chandler, the Mavericks have remade themselves into a defensive juggernaut.  They are 18-11 against a solid schedule despite being 20th in offense (still not getting to the line, still not getting second shots, but now missing the shots they DO take).  Instead the historically underwhelming (or undervalued) Mavs D is carrying them this year.  Yeah Odom has sucked on offense, but he is a very useful defender.  So is Vince Carter despite his reputation, and Brendan Haywood has successfully impersonated a competent C this year.  All that adds up to a team that is 3rd in FG defense and 5th in forcing turnovers.  The Mavs are top 10 in TS% and shot prevention – and that has allowed them to survive themselves.  Given the reputations and past performances of their top guys on offense – this is nothing but good news for the long term.

Unlocked … 2012 NBA Season Report #3

OK, OK … I’m done whining about the quality of basketball so far.  It is what it is – maybe the season will get better – but the season is unfolding in a compelling way.  How have the rankings changed since last week’s tome?  Here ya go (previous position in parentheses):

1. (3) Heat (16-5)
2. (1) Sixers (15-6)
3. (2) Bulls (18-5)
4. (4) Hawks (15-6)
5. (6) Nuggets (14-6)
6. (5) Thunder (16-4)
7. (9) Mavericks (14-8)
8. (10) Blazers (12-9)
9. (13) Spurs (13-9)
10. (14) Clippers (12-7)
11. (7) Lakers (12-9)
12. (19) Celtics (9-10)
13. (16) Timberwolves (10-11)
14. (17) Rockets (12-9)
15. (15) Pacers (13-6)
16. (8) Jazz (12-7)
17. (11) Grizzlies (10-10)
18. (12) Magic (12-8)
19. (21) Bucks (9-11)
20. (20) Hornets (4-17)
21. (18) Suns (7-13)
22. (22) Warriors (6-12)
23. (24) Raptors (7-14)
24. (23) Knicks (7-13)
25. (25) Cavaliers (8-11)
26. (26) Nets (7-13)
27. (29) Wizards (4-17)
28. (27) Kings (6-14)
29. (28) Pistons (4-18)
30. (30) Bobcats (3-18)

Some notes:

1. The big mover in the right direction has been Boston.  Yeah, 9-10 is not oozing impressiveness, and the schedule has not been the most strenuous.  However, the dual wins over Orlando and spunky win over Indiana more than offset the toe stub against the Cavaliers.  Considering how few points they have scored all season, it is easy for storyline NBA writers to talk about their offensive woes and how their defense misses Kendrick Perkins.  As it turns out, their offensive woes are overrated – they are not very good offensively, but they have been this way for a while now with the snail like pace they operate at.  The Celtics, as usual, are a good TS% team – 7th in the league, but between their indifferent offensive rebounding and lousy turnover rate – the Celtics like last year still generate the fewest looks of any team in the league.  That said, the defense has risen since Paul Pierce has returned.  The defense now is 2nd in the league, the best of the non-Sixers (who have lapped the field so far in that department).  Really where the team misses Perkins perhaps and still needs to improve is its 15th ranked defensive rebounding.  However, the Celtics are back to sort of usual – they need scoring more than defense.
2. One thing to note about Boston’s results is that it might be skewed by its results over Orlando who had sort of a worst week ever.  Aside from a good win at Indiana, the Magic have been littered with awesomely poor efforts in Boston, and hosting Boston in the 2nd half, and then at New Orleans (though the Hornets are not as bad as their record).  Yeah their offense has looked horrible lately, but they always look that way because of the number of 3s hoisted up.  The TS% is a bit worse than a year ago (12th from 9th) but the real dropoff has been defensively.  This year the Magic – though about the same defensively quantitatively a year ago – has slipped from elite to decent.  Considering that Dwight Howard is their only good defensive player – he might be the cause.  Is he checking out of the season the way Melo did?  Considering his willingness to answer questions about future destinations on the record a la Melo 2011, it is hard to say no.
3. The Magic right now are just punching above its metric weight.  The plunge of the week though went to Utah who slipped on the basis of a 2-2 week, with a home loss to Toronto being particularly mystifying.  The Jazz have been the beneficiaries of great seasons from Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap.  The bigs have led the Jazz to the 3rd most frequent visitor to the foul line, and the league’s 2nd best offensive rebound rate.  The two guys are strong with the ball too – as the Jazz have been a very low turnover team.  Sure Devin Harris has struggled and was never a passing point guard to begin with, but the Jazz with their pounding offense – manage to take care of the ball since it does not move much.  The Jazz are near the bottom of the league from 3, so this is really a 1976 sort of strategy – but so far the quantity approach (3rd in the league in shot generation) has worked out.  Really the Jazz have had to win with offense as the defense is not very good – merely 16th in the league – and seems distinguished only by the number of fouls committed.  Some things don’t change.
4. If the Magic are the bad of recent note, the Ugly, Pathetic, and Sad have to be the Phoenix Suns.  A mere two seasons ago we’re talking about a team that was a scant two wins from the Finals.  Obviously they chose to let Amare go for financial reasons or whatever – but all of the personnel moves since are amazing to regard in collective.  I mean, in 2010 this team averaged 108 points per average paced game.  To give a perspective, the best team in 2011 was Denver at 104.3 let alone this year’s Denver’s 100.6.  So the Suns were a full 8 points better than the elite teams of this season!  Of course the 2010 Suns were merely a sentence of one of the great paragraphs in NBA history – a six year stretch interrupted by a brief blip where the otherwise brilliant Steve Kerr thought they needed to change – some of the best, most well oiled offensive teams ever.  Indeed while Mike D’Antoni was there, the defense was actually fairly good – the lack of physicality and pace of play obscured the fact that the team did a good job defending without fouling and largely preventing high value shots.  But you look at last year – as the Suns added Josh Childress, and then Vince Carter and Marcin Gortat – and became a more conventional alignment  – the team slipped to a mortal 9th place.  Meanwhile without Stoudemire there to provide any meaningful resistance – the defense actually DID start to stink.  This year it’s just depressing how far it has fallen.  The Suns are a mere 17th in pace, and now a sick sad 23rd in offense.  A Steve Nash team 23rd in offense?  92 points per game?  SIXTEEN POINTS WORSE than 2010?  From first in true shooting to 19th.  It’s a shame – and it feels entirely self inflicted as Steve Kerr laughs maniacally from his TNT position.  I am not sure the old way would have won a title – but we know THIS way won’t, and it ends up being horrendous basketball to boot.  A team that cranks out 60 win seasons – even if you don’t think it is a particular sustainable model – is some SORT of contender?  Shouldn’t Phoenix have ridden that out?  It’s not like they were blown out in their chances to shine.  Sigh.

 

 

Dare to be Stupid: The Magic Double Down

Well, you gotta give the Magic credit for going big.  We all knew they had the best roster to organize a big trade to reshape a roster that maybe might not be good enough to match Boston and Miami in the East.  Marcin Gortat, arguably one of the 10 best centers in the game, was BACKING UP Dwight Howard, while Vince Carter’s partially guaranteed 2012 salary made him a very attractive chip too.  So they took their two major chips and turned them into … the two worst contracts in the NBA??  What??

Gilbert Arenas has shown signs of being a good player again.  He is a bit more creative than other perimeter options, as is Hedo Turkoglu.  Indeed, the lack of perimeter creativity is what the Magic wanted to fix.  But is Arenas better than Jameer Nelson, now, in 2010 – at THAT price?  Turkoglu has sucked donkey balls the last two stops – why should that change here?  There is a lot of money being spent here and a lot of tilting at windmills.

Of course, the deal also brings back Jason Richardson and Earl Clark from the Suns.  Earl Clark is a project, but has some talent – but frankly has been a bust so far as a lottery guy.  Richardson is a poor defender, but can really fill it up.  His shooting is a great fit with the Magic 3-point gunning, but he does not solve the creativity gap on the perimeter either.

For the Wizards this move was a no-brainer.  Considering the size of Arenas’ deal, any trade made would be a mistake for mistake exchange.  The Wizards, without having to give away a draft choice – got a less onerous mistake in Rashard Lewis.  So this is an obvious fit – and it commits them fully to John Wall, which was the sensible thing to do anyhoo.

For the Suns, this is a strong move.  Gortat gives them some beef they desperately needed, considering how putrid their defense and rebounding are.  He and Robin Lopez make a pretty good center combination.  Mikael Pietrus is a guy with some talent, but is relatively throw-in like.  Vince Carter is at least as good as Jason Richardson.  Hedo Turkoglu was useless to them, so his departure is great contractually.  This move makes their roster more sensible while adding a first round pick – and Vince Carter is very much moveable if that tickles their fancy.

Ultimately, the headlines will be about Orlando re-shaping their team, but it is hard to see where the true marginal gain is.  This feels like re-arranging deck chairs to sate the talk show calling hordes.

 

2011 NBA Preview – The Dirty Dozen

Six hours and 10 minutes to go before the store opens for the 2011 season.  12 teams left to countdown.  At this point, we are left with all teams that have a more than theoretical chance to win it all, although certainly a lot has to go right for some of the entries.  The flotsam, is passed:

12. Houston Rockets (16th overall in 2010, 19th offense, 17th defense)

Yao is back, albeit in a highly controlled role.  Kevin Martin, almost as brittle, gives them the best shooting guard they’ve had since Tracy McGrady was still alive.  Last year Rick Adelman used smoke and mirrors to keep them in the playoffs.  Luis Scola is a very good complimentary player – they have a very deep lineup.  Really, this is a team that could make a huge run, if Yao can hold up and if he can become a serious contributor late in the season.  Big ifs, so I will leave them here out of respect for Adelman and the talent Darryl Morey has assembled.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Yao and Kevin Martin give them the dynamic duo – and a healthy dynamic duo at that.

11. Milwaukee Bucks (15th overall in 2010, 23rd offense, 3rd defense)

They won last year with Brandon Jennings youth, Andrew Bogut making a mini-Leap, and the 3rd best defense in the league.  In particular, they forced turnovers at a high rate while being the best team in the league at not committing fouls.  This elevated them from their good but not awesome first shot defense into elite territory.  But their 23rd ranked offense needs to improve.  Enter Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette, offensively gifted forwards.  Chris Douglas-Roberts gives some wing options to that end.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Brandon Jennings is as good as his first season hinted, Andrew Bogut is healthy, their defense stays strong while Maggette, one of the game’s most efficient scorers, can bring their offense up.

10. Chicago Bulls (18th overall in 2010, 28th offense, 11th defense)

He will not be healthy to start the season, but Carlos Boozer portends to give the Bulls the low post scorer they have yearned for.  With him and Joakim Noah, they now have a frontcourt to compete with the East’s best.  Derrick Rose is growing, and his work for Team USA portended well.  This was a bad offensive team, particularly deficient at just shooting the ball.  Carlos Boozer will help this along – even if the Bulls were aiming for a bigger prize.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Their defense is as solid as it was by the end of last year, Derrick Rose makes the leap and Carlos Boozer provides that post presence they need to win playoff games.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th overall in 2010, 10th offense, 12th defense)

It feels like we could write the same blurb about this team for the last 5 years.  Dirk is a GREAT player, and his cast is solid but old.  They are coached well largely, though it has not always manifested in the playoffs.  It feels like this lineup has a finite amount of time together.  All of these sentences applied in 2007, 2008 and apply today.  Rodrique Beaubois could be a terrific spark as a combo guard, and Tyson Chandler is a terrific pickup as a defensive big and usable contract.  But really where is the upside here?

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dirk is 2006-2007 Dirk, Caron Butler is 2008 Caron Butler and Jason Kidd in 2003 Jason Kidd.  Honestly this seems like a stuck outfit.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder (6th overall in 2010, 11th offense, 7th defense)

What???  America’s sweethearts are all the way down here?  Let’s be real.  They were abnormally healthy a year ago.  They play in a brutal division.  The question is whether they make the elite leap now or next year.  Honestly, this is guessing.  Durant is going to be an MVP favorite as he should be, and Russell Westbrook is fringe all-NBA.  That is real.  They will be better than they were last year, but it might not reflect in the standings.  This is a fascinating division.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Durant and the kiddies are all growns up!

7.  Portland TrailBlazers (11th overall in 2010, 7th offense, 13th defense)

This is a very interesting team.  The Thunder burst into our consciousness last season.  The Blazers, with a similar assemblage of talent and growth curve, suffered a comically rash level of injury yet won 50 games.  They have the sheer amount of size to give the Lakers trouble – the length the Jazz lacked.  However, is the health just a glitch or a real problem?  They spent too much money on Wesley Matthews, although he is a fit for what they want to do.  This might be the season for them to make The Leap.  Andre Miller is a good trade asset, as he and Roy are a poor basketball fit.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Greg Oden gets healthy and develops.  Brandon Roy stays healthy.  The young talent just grows up.

6. Utah Jazz (5th overall in 2010, 8th offense, 10th defense)

The Jazz cannot beat the Lakers.  They were not long enough last year.  They aren’t long enough now.  They lost Boozer, but fleeced Minnesota for Al Jefferson who is a more than capable replacement.  They lost Wesley Matthews and Kyle Korver, but Gordon Hayward might be better than either by the end of the season.  Deron Williams is a great PG and Jerry Sloan is a great coach.  This team cannot beat the Lakers but they can beat anybody else.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The Lakers suffer a fatal incommunicable illness.

5. San Antonio Spurs (4th overall in 2010, 9th offense, 9th defense)

The Spurs are on the downside.  But Manu Ginobli had a career year of sorts, and Tony Parker is playing for a contract.  Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair give them a real chance to keep Duncan’s minutes even more controlled.  The pieces are there for another big run – though it will take some help.  After all, they finished 4th last year!  The problem though is that their defense has slipped from the elite levels of their title years, and their offense is a little less efficient than it used to be.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Duncan, Ginobli and Parker go in the wayback machine a little bit … and their defense gets back towards the 2007 standard.

4. Miami Heat (13th overall in 2010, 18th offense, 4th defense)

Obviously they will be better – I don’t think we need to go over why.  In fact on the wing they will be magical, and Chris Bosh is an elite big, although not a great strength big.  They have a lot of bigs – but very little quality outside of Bosh, though Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony are good team sorts.  They will have trouble defending elite size, and teams that have that can beat them in a short series.  They might win the regular season derby – but teams that can pound them inside could very well beat them.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They can defend real size.

3. Orlando Magic (1st overall in 2010, 2nd offense, 1st defense)

HERE is real size.  The Magic are a great defensive team.  Their depth is spectacular with a second five (Duhon, Anderson, Bass, Gortat, Williams) that could win 20 game in the NBA.  Their size on the wings can at least present some resistance against the Heat’s wing elegance.  If a team cannot handle Dwight Howard with single coverage, that opens up their 3 point attack and they become very very hard to stop.  But if Howard is defended 1 on 1, look out.  They will be active looking for an impact guy via trade.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Dwight Howard becomes seriously unguardable.

2. Boston Celtics (9th overall in 2010, 12th offense, 6th defense)

The Celtics can guard Howard 1 on 1.  That has driven the Magic crazy matchup-wise.  The Celtics rank was low in 2010, but they took care to avoid injury and sacrified playoff positions.  But their defense is elite, and with Garnett being healthier, and all the size they signed in the offseason the Celtics have the chance to be much more rugged than they were last year.  Rondo made The Leap last year, this team just has to manage minutes and be strong.  They might not beat the Heat or Magic, but there is no reason to start with that assumption.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: They win one more game.

Los Angeles Lakers (7th overall in 2010, 13th offense, 5th defense)

The Lakers won the title last year, with so much wrong.  Andrew Bynum was hurt so much (as usual), Derek Fisher was HORRIBLE at the point and Kobe Bryant was ailing.  Like the Celtics, the Lakers bet on health over wins in the second half of the year and it worked.  The West has a lot of good teams, but none remotely as good.  This breaks my heart to type, I cannot emphasize enough.  No team can match up with so many styles, and the length they have up front makes them an elite team.  They are a rugged strength team and it is hard to envision a team overpowering them.  Witness the Celtics’ moves in the offseason – it was clearly with this in mind.

 

2011 NBA Preview: The Set Up

With a week to go before the NBA season starts, a time for a season preview, or at least the start of one seems natural.  So, did anything happen since the Lakers beat the Celtics?  Anything?  This season portends to be the most fascinating in recent memory, with the Sisterhood of the Traveling Gym Shorts thing taking place in Miami, Boston cleverly loading up on a two year run before having a real chance to start over again, Oklahoma City and Portland maybe well positioned to rise, and the Lakers still the cream of the West.  Like last year, we do the rankings again, though a couple small changes.

• The Strength of Schedule is simplified.  It is simply an aggregation of a team’s opponent’s adjusted scoring margin against other teams.  So the Lakers SoS increased to 2nd in the league, while the Timberwolves slipped from #1 to #3.  This way strength of schedule does not include double counting.
• The second degree strength of schedule (opponents’ opponents) is gone.  Ultimately it did not explain enough.

So how does the methodology work?

1. We are looking for the best true scoring margin – normalized for pace, and normalized for fouling.  The fundamental job is to score and prevent scoring.  This is what it measures.
2. Points are points.  Possessions is the number of field goal attempts plus 0.44 times number of free throw attempts (slightly less than 2 shots per trip to the line due to effect of and-1s) plus turnovers (wasted possessions) less offensive rebounds (saving possessions).
3. Points/possession are calculated for each team, what they score, and what they allow.  However, the team’s defensive points allowed replaces FTs against with the league FT% times FTAs allowed.  Thus, we remove the luck of an opponent who can’t shoot foul shots.
4. The points per possession are inflated using the league average number of possessions per game.  So we then get a “real offense” indicator, how many points a team scores in a league average paced game.
5. We assume a 3.5 point home court, so the road team gets 3.5 points times the percentage of road games they have played to date.
6. The team rating then becomes Real Offense – Real Defense + 3.5*RoadPct + Strength of Schedule Rating

Superimposing this slightly tweaked methodology on last year’s final numbers, how are we starting this season?

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Magic	59	23	104.631 (2)	96.214 (1)	1.75	1.77 (15)	11.937
2	Cavaliers	61	21	104.39 (3)	97.272 (8)	1.75	1.709 (20)	10.577
3	Suns	54	28	107.908 (1)	102.168 (19)	1.75	1.658 (25)	9.148
4	Spurs	50	32	102.717 (9)	97.59 (9)	1.75	1.934 (7)	8.811
5	Jazz	53	29	103.122 (8)	98.527 (10)	1.75	1.957 (5)	8.301
6	Thunder	50	32	101.459 (11)	97.188 (7)	1.75	1.87 (9)	7.89
7	Lakers	57	25	101.152 (13)	97.091 (5)	1.75	2.028 (2)	7.84
8	Hawks	53	29	104.132 (4)	100.085 (15)	1.75	1.785 (13)	7.582
9	Celtics	50	32	101.165 (12)	97.178 (6)	1.75	1.675 (24)	7.412
10	Nuggets	53	29	103.777 (6)	100.105 (16)	1.75	1.961 (4)	7.383
11	Blazers	50	32	103.569 (7)	99.894 (13)	1.75	1.69 (21)	7.115
12	Mavericks	55	27	102.457 (10)	98.973 (12)	1.75	1.719 (18)	6.953
13	Heat	47	35	100.305 (18)	96.849 (4)	1.75	1.607 (27)	6.814
14	Bobcats	44	38	97.408 (24)	96.389 (2)	1.75	1.722 (17)	4.491
15	Bucks	46	36	97.553 (23)	96.462 (3)	1.75	1.517 (29)	4.358
16	Rockets	42	40	100.13 (19)	100.907 (17)	1.75	2.144 (1)	3.117
17	Raptors	40	42	103.869 (5)	104.906 (30)	1.75	1.712 (19)	2.425
18	Bulls	41	41	96.563 (28)	98.573 (11)	1.75	1.782 (14)	1.522
19	Hornets	37	45	100.59 (16)	102.895 (22)	1.75	1.861 (10)	1.307
20	Grizzlies	40	42	100.398 (17)	102.932 (23)	1.75	1.854 (12)	1.07
21	Pacers	32	50	97.062 (26)	99.996 (14)	1.75	1.581 (28)	0.397
22	Warriors	26	56	100.65 (14)	104.321 (28)	1.75	1.921 (8)	0.001
23	Kings	25	57	98.103 (22)	102.032 (18)	1.75	1.949 (6)	-0.23
24	Knicks	29	53	100.646 (15)	104.386 (29)	1.75	1.42 (30)	-0.57
25	Sixers	27	55	99.066 (20)	103.097 (24)	1.75	1.614 (26)	-0.667
26	Wizards	26	56	97.101 (25)	102.302 (20)	1.75	1.681 (22)	-1.77
27	Clippers	29	53	96.693 (27)	102.357 (21)	1.75	1.855 (11)	-2.059
28	Pistons	27	55	98.198 (21)	104.067 (26)	1.75	1.733 (16)	-2.386
29	Timberwolves	15	67	94.652 (29)	104.233 (27)	1.75	1.962 (3)	-5.868
30	Nets	12	70	94.115 (30)	103.745 (25)	1.75	1.679 (23)	-6.201

In a way, Orlando has been the most undersold team of the offseason.  With Miami’s offseason maneuverings and Boston’s big name bench pickups, Orlando’s quiet offseason left them lying in the weeds.  The way Boston squashed them in the Eastern Conference finals leaves an impression that the facts do not support.  The Magic at the end of last season were kicking the living crap out of opponents – the most complete team in basketball.  However, they have one flaw – if a team can single cover Dwight Howard, the Magic become very ordinary.  However, very few teams can do that – and teams that cannot open up everything Orlando can do.

But I digress, we’ll use last year’s ending table to start previewing teams.  The first six teams – in another post.

Dare to Be Stupid – NBA Free Agency, LeBron Today

FINALLY, some news!

Orlando Magic sign Chris Duhon for 4 years, $15 million: Chris Duhon once had a 20 assist game.  He actually did a fairly good job running the Knicks D’Antoni attack until the sheer volume of minutes killed him.  He is not a starter for a good NBA team – but can he be a backup for a great one?  Absolutely.  He defends, he is not a penetrator – and while he is only a league average 3-point shooter, he can make it enough to space the floor the way the Magic want.  At the price, a totally reasonable signing – though the years are more than I would give a backup.

Boston Celtics re-sign Ray Allen for 2 years, $20 million: This deal puts Ray and KG on the same contract schedule.  When the Celtics re-signed Paul Pierce, they declared they would ride these guys out as long as is feasible.  While there is some risk there – honestly it was not a bad option.  They could have let Pierce and Allen walk and be under the cap and in the position to get a big name – but there was no guarantee it would work.  If Chicago – which offered a great scenario for the Big 3 free agents – end up with none of them, how can Boston?  I guess people are afraid of the cold.  As such, Ray Allen is paid well reasonably here – and the years are there.  The 2nd year is his option.

Chicago Bulls sign Carlos Boozer for 5 years, $80 million: Boozer has a history of missed games.  That is a problem.  If he is injured through the life of this contract – don’t say I didn’t warn you.  That said, in THIS insane market, the Bulls got a screaming bargain – if you just look at productivity and not durability.  The Bulls have needed a post scorer – they have one.  They needed someone who can work a pick and roll with a dynamic point guard – they have one.  Boozer looked bad against the Lakers because of his lack of length – but there are 28 other teams in the league where it is not such a latent problem.  The Bulls with a couple more smaller moves could set up to be a Top 4 team in the East.

Miami Heat sign Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh for some amount of American dollars: I was surprised they did not ride in on a tandem bicycle for their interview.  What sort of analysis is necessary here?  This is a great move for the Heat.  That said, without some heft on the bench – this is not enough to break into the Orlando-Boston tier in the East.  Right now it is a 2.5 person team.  Now with these guys they could attract some people to join them in tax free Florida – but they haven’t yet.  However, if they add that LeBron dude – all bets are off.

Now, as for what LeBron should do?  There was word of him going to the Heat – at this point it’s all speculation.  Frankly, I think for the league and for the sport – and for whatever his legacy is – it is probably the stupidest option:

1. Dwayne Wade has already won a title.  Does LeBron need to ride his coattails in Miami to win another?  Does LeBron need to be a final piece to some other team’s puzzle?  I know I am being unfair, but that is the perception he will have to deal with.
2. Was there really this clamoring for a dream team?  I mean these guys won a gold medal.  We know they are good.  The Chicago Bulls 72 win team was awe inspiring – but it was the culmination (largely) of a 10 year run.  The essential pieces stayed true – and were Bulls the entire time.  This is much more of a mercenary soldiers-for-hire sort of thing.  Not exactly inspiring.
3. The Really Big Three set themselves up to be regarded like the 2003 Real Madrid side or any Chelsea football team of yore.  The pressure will be incalculable and perhaps the joy will be minimal.  Granted, the 2009 Yankees seemed to enjoy it – and the 2008 Boston Celtics were composed in a somewhat similar manner, but the Celtics were not sure if their moves would win a title.  This just does not seem like something a true competitor would do.  Indeed, Kobe’s legacy will be secure.

The special is being aired from the Greenwich, Connecticut Boys and Girls Club – near where the Knicks practice.  Is that a better indicator?  Maybe.  The Knicks make much more sense on a different level.  With Stoudemire as a #2, that is good enough to win a title with some smart filling in on the edges.  The Nets have enough young talent that LeBron could be the straw that stirs the drink.  Chicago has always been a great bet to turn it around quickly too.  Dallas would have been the most fun choice for him – but I am surprised neither side looked at each other harder.

NBA Conference Finals Preview and Picks

Well, the Bostonian in me would be remiss not to touch base about the Bruins historic collapse against the Philadelphia Flyers – the scribes have written, what more is there to say?  Let’s move on.

The Celtics, coming off of their shocking upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers face the Orlando Magic, who have sliced through the playoffs with ferocious intent so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Meanwhile, in the West, the Suns and Lakers come off of a week rest after each swept through the Spurs and Jazz respectively.  If one remember’s Steve Nash’s face after the win over the Spurs, clearly the Suns needed the rest:

Ewwwww

So, how will the series go?  Given my knowledge of the Cavs-Celtics series, take these at your own peril.

Suns v Lakers … power rankings wise this is #3 vs #7.  The Suns have been outstanding this postseason with their sweep and their more one sided than it looked win over the Blazers.  The Lakers had to work harder, but are coming off of a high level sweep of the Jazz.  If we just look at the 5 man lineups, the Lakers size is a real problem for the Suns.  Normally, when we think Suns, we expect the team to be soft on the inside and not really care.  With these guys, that is different.  They won the Spurs series basically on the glass with their earnestness – outrebounding the Spurs in Game 2 severely on the offensive side.  The Suns with their #19 defense, will never be considered a juggernaut – but they try harder this year – and have a mean streak with Jared Dudley and Louis Amundsen, that previous vintages don’t have.  However, all of this still leaves the Lakers at an advantage down low, even with the Suns offering more length than the Jazz could.

However, the Suns are a brilliant offensive team, #1 in the league again.  Amare Stoudemire could and should still give the Lakers problems, and the Nash is as good as ever.  While the Lakers can match up small using Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher or Jordan Farmar most likely will have to guard somebody, whether it be Nash, Jason Richardson or Barbosa.  There is an edge there.  Also the Suns’ bench has been outstanding – they must flog the Lakers generally woeful second unit to optimize their probability of winning.  But the probability is significant.  This shapes up as a classic: Lakers in 7

Magic v Celtics: The Magic finished the season #1 in the Power Rankings, while the Celtics finished #10.  That said the Celtics have gotten healthier and played a brilliant series to beat Cleveland.  But this is another kettle of fish.  The Magic are coming off of an epic 27-3 stretch with a high scoring margin over those 30 games than the Celtics had ALL SEASON.  They might not win it all, but they have clearly been the best team in the league since 2010 started.  The Magic have the league’s best defense anchored by Dwight Howard, offer matchup issues with Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, and Jameer Nelson playing a PG so well that the Magic’s “if only he were healthy last year” misgiving is legitimate.  Rondo should not be able to flog this matchup like he did against Cleveland.  Also the Celtics beat Cleveland because Kevin Garnett emerged as the team’s second best player again, and dominated Antawn Jamison.  Rashard Lewis is a tougher test – lacking the wussiness and the inability to dribble fashioned by Antawn.  The Magic also offer unmatched depth with Ryan Anderson, Jason Williams, JJ Redick and Marcin Gortat – the Celtics bench, a weakness all season, will be tested again.  The Celtics can win this, but it is on Rondo and Pierce to rise up in the toughest scenario to date.  Magic in 5

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks

Well, this is hardly revelation. Indeed, two of the series are already underway with the Lakers and the Cavaliers each taking 1-0 leads. Fortunately I was not picking the Celtics or the Jazz to sweep, so no biggie. So the series (rankings based on final rankings):

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (10):  To their credit, the Celtics will not be scared.  Of course this is a rematch of a 2nd round series from 2007-2008 when the Celtics beat the Cavs in a series where nobody won on the road.  This time, the Celtics NEED to win in Cleveland.  Alas, they have blown leads all season and their defense, 6th in the league, has wavered at times when they’ve needed big results.  Cavs athleticism is a real problem.  Celts must stop the Cavs 3 – and Rondo has to dominate.  Cavs in 5

Magic (1) vs Hawks (8): In Round 1, Magic played the Bobcats – 2 stout defenses with only one good offensive team – hence a Magic sweep.  Now, two of the league’s best offenses but this time the Magic have the far superior defense.  The Hawks have struggled in head to head matchups, and the Magic depth and quality is hard to top.  Both teams are very efficient on offense without being great assist teams – Magic take high level shots, Hawks offensively rebound.  Really I don’t see how the Hawks win.  Magic in 5

Lakers (7) vs Jazz (5):  Kirilenko has to play.  The Jazz showed to be a lousy defense in round 1 against Denver.  However, Denver was lousier and the Jazz scored at will.  The Lakers size and length are a tough matchup for the Jazz’ bigs.  Without Kirilenko the Jazz must win this on offense, which they are solid at.  However, the Lakers defense, with Bynum is outstanding.  There is a reason the Jazz have had trouble winning.  However, the Lakers did not look great against the Thunder.  They really are vulnerable.  The offense has been pedestrian, or streaky at the very least.  This could be a good series.  Lakers in 7

Suns (3) vs Spurs (4):  What a history these teams have.  Granted, the Spurs have had the better of it, but such a style matchup.  The Spurs are much more offensive minded now than back in the day.  I mean then the offense was efficient, but now their offense is more important, as their defense is not “great” anymore at a mere 9th.  The Suns are wonderful offensively, and they did very well in head to head this season.  They came off of a good series against a feisty Portland team, giving them 3 of their 4 worst losses of the season.  If Suns can manage the size, they should finally break through this time.  Suns in 6