Dare to Be Stupid – How Much is that Lottery Pick in the Window?

Waking up this morning, THIS story comes on the interwebs.

Cavaliers get Baron Davis and the Clippers first round pick in the 2011 draft

Clippers get Mo Williams and Jamario Moon

For the Clippers, this is pretty easy.  Mo Williams is a lot cheaper than Baron Davis, while Moon expires.  The deal they signed Davis to has largely been a disaster.  Baron Davis is the best point guard in the NBA – the man whom if you were to go to the point guard parts store to build a perfect PG, he’d probably be what a prototype would look like – when he is motivated and not injured.  Sadly that latter condition has been all too rare.  The Clippers are happy to be rid of his contract, even though they are getting an inferior player in Mo Williams.  Williams won’t be throwing Blake Griffin over the car alley-oops, but he can space the floor.  I am sure Clippers fans will not miss Baron’s 3 or 4 ill-advised threes per game.

For the Cavaliers, reportedly they were willing to buy another solid lottery pick – and Baron Davis is the cost.  Davis can help them, if yadda yadda yadda.  However, really they wanted another potential top ten pick in this draft.  I am not sure why you’d double down so hard for a pick in THIS draft – which is highly speculative (not a ton of guys you can say are turnkey), but the Cavs do need a talent infusion ASAP, and this moves that process along.

2011 NBA Power Rankings – Week 3

The Heat of course, lost a couple of times, the Celtics had a big win, and there are no longer any unbeatens in the Association.  How does this manifest itself in the rankings so far?  The method behind the madness is here:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Hornets	8	1	103.513 (7)	93.816 (3)	1.556	5.516 (1)	16.769
2	Heat	6	4	105.662 (3)	96.329 (6)	1.4	4.296 (4)	15.029
3	Celtics	8	2	102.756 (10)	95.554 (4)	2.1	4.235 (5)	13.536
4	Mavericks	7	2	102.836 (9)	95.662 (5)	1.167	2.441 (10)	10.782
5	Magic	7	3	101.247 (15)	92.73 (2)	1.05	0.448 (25)	10.015
6	Spurs	8	1	105 (5)	97.964 (8)	1.556	0.676 (24)	9.267
7	Lakers	8	2	108.585 (1)	100.93 (13)	1.05	0.252 (26)	8.957
8	Bucks	5	5	94.097 (28)	91.455 (1)	1.75	4.454 (3)	8.846
9	Nuggets	5	5	102.363 (11)	100.984 (14)	2.1	5.138 (2)	8.617
10	Bulls	5	3	102.291 (12)	96.851 (7)	0.875	1.274 (19)	7.59
11	Suns	6	4	105.882 (2)	104.285 (27)	1.75	3.613 (7)	6.96
12	Blazers	6	5	103.789 (6)	101.533 (18)	2.227	1.427 (17)	5.91
13	Jazz	7	4	101.592 (13)	101.433 (15)	2.227	1.992 (13)	4.378
14	Hawks	7	4	105.266 (4)	101.487 (17)	1.591	-1.048 (28)	4.322
15	Pacers	4	4	99.835 (18)	99.41 (9)	1.75	1.905 (15)	4.08
16	Sixers	2	8	98.66 (22)	99.85 (11)	2.1	2.801 (9)	3.712
17	Rockets	3	6	101.486 (14)	102.215 (19)	2.333	1.92 (14)	3.524
18	Bobcats	4	7	100.078 (17)	99.818 (10)	1.909	1.013 (21)	3.182
19	Thunder	6	4	103.223 (8)	105.522 (28)	1.4	2.022 (12)	1.122
20	Warriors	7	4	99.244 (21)	100.012 (12)	1.909	-0.189 (27)	0.952
21	Grizzlies	4	7	97.288 (26)	102.275 (21)	1.909	4.028 (6)	0.95
22	Raptors	2	8	99.536 (19)	104.1 (26)	2.1	2.383 (11)	-0.081
23	Knicks	3	7	97.822 (24)	101.461 (16)	1.75	0.74 (22)	-1.149
24	Pistons	4	7	98.172 (23)	102.587 (23)	2.227	0.697 (23)	-1.491
25	Nets	4	6	99.486 (20)	103.63 (24)	1.4	1.179 (20)	-1.566
26	Cavaliers	4	5	97.442 (25)	102.578 (22)	1.556	-1.275 (29)	-4.855
27	Wizards	2	6	93.44 (30)	102.227 (20)	1.75	1.65 (16)	-5.387
28	Timberwolves	3	9	93.477 (29)	103.721 (25)	2.333	1.406 (18)	-6.505
29	Clippers	1	10	94.723 (27)	105.797 (29)	1.591	2.958 (8)	-6.525
30	Kings	3	6	100.447 (16)	107.321 (30)	1.556	-3.063 (30)	-8.381

Some observations about the third week?

• After two weeks at the top, the rankings could not deny the New Orleans’ Hornets hot start any longer.  Chris Paul has been the league’s best player so far – until he falls apart, that does not seem to be changing.  But moreover, the Hornets (against a very good schedule to date) have succeeded with a good defensive approach.  They are 3rd in total defense, and strong on both the quality and quantity dimensions.  Their true shooting percentage against is 3rd in the league (so they do a good job preventing scoring chances from becoming baskets) and they allow the 6th fewest shots per possession (so they do a good job preventing scoring chances generally).
• After showing some early evidence that they might be the worst team in recent history, the Timberwolves put together a couple of wins and have started to move up the charts a little bit.  Obviously a move from 30th to 28th is faint praise, but it’s something.  Their offense is still putrid, and is only saved at all by their league leading ability to generate shots (Kevin Love’s 31 and 31 for instance).
• SPOTLIGHT TEAM:  This week, we check in on the Cleveland Cavaliers since LeBron, well … you know.  They had a fun emotional opening night victory over a Boston team which was playing a second night of a back to back after a jihad with the Heat.  The Cavaliers looked like they could be interesting.  Alas, they have slipped to 26th in the rankings, despite their 4-5 record (they have had a very favorable early schedule).  Their offense is currently 23rd after being 3rd place a year ago.  This is obviously not shocking.  A bit more surprising is that losing LeBron James, not a good three point shooter, their team three point proficiency has plummeted from 2nd in the league a year ago to a very pedestrian 21st.  Add the loss of free throw generation that LeBron took with him, the Cavs true shooting percentage has slipped from 3rd to 22nd.  This more than offsets the small gain in shot quantity they have added (perhaps by playing JJ Hickson more).  Defensively, their dropoff is also not a huge surprise, but for different reasons.  Bron is a great defensive player, but Mike Brown, their fired coach was a great defensive coach.  They have always been stout on that end – it is part of Brown’s DNA coaching under Larry Brown.  What is interesting this year is that their quantity stats are about the same – they force more turnovers, but defensively rebound less effectively – but across the board, their shooting defense is just a lot worse – down from 3rd to 21st in true shooting defense.  Really, this cannot be attributed to LeBron.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 9

Just when the Patriots seem to be growing, they get whomped by the Cleveland Browns.  The Seahawks show some serious mirage-properties.  The Bengals look finished.  Yep, it’s the NFL wildness.  As always the rankings are a combination of scoring margin and opponents scoring margin against other teams.

Rank	Team	W	L	T	Margin	Sched Rtg	SOS Rank	Last Wk
1	Titans	5	3	0	13.786	2.942	7	1
2	Steelers	6	2	0	13.03	4.499	3	2
3	Packers	6	3	0	10.734	1.067	20	7
4	Jets	6	2	0	10.097	1.847	13	4
5	Giants	6	2	0	9.004	0.848	21	10
6	Colts	5	3	0	8.97	0.658	23	6
7	Chargers	4	5	0	8.225	1.781	15	5
8	Falcons	6	2	0	8.126	1.501	17	8
9	Eagles	5	3	0	8.052	4.209	5	9
10	Lions	2	6	0	7.917	4.917	1	11
11	Ravens	6	2	0	7.482	1.232	19	13
12	Patriots	6	2	0	7.306	1.837	14	3
13	Chiefs	5	3	0	6.971	0.471	25	12
14	Browns	3	5	0	6.113	4.863	2	21
15	Raiders	5	4	0	5.801	0.634	24	14
16	Saints	6	3	0	5.299	-1.423	31	19
17	Vikings	3	5	0	2.401	2.151	11	15
18	Redskins	4	4	0	2.204	2.329	10	18
19	Bears	5	3	0	1.843	-1.345	30	16
20	Texans	4	4	0	1.656	4.469	4	20
21	Dolphins	4	4	0	1.518	3.33	6	17
22	Bengals	2	6	0	0.134	1.259	18	23
23	Rams	4	4	0	0.076	-1.518	32	22
24	Bucs	5	3	0	-2.166	0.209	28	28
25	49ers	2	6	0	-3.167	0.208	29	26
26	Broncos	2	6	0	-3.619	2.443	9	27
27	Seahawks	4	4	0	-3.998	0.252	27	24
28	Cardinals	3	5	0	-4.579	1.577	16	30
29	Cowboys	1	7	0	-4.768	1.951	12	25
30	Jaguars	4	4	0	-5.069	0.806	22	29
31	Bills	0	8	0	-5.737	2.888	8	31
32	Panthers	1	7	0	-10.036	0.464	26	32

Some of the key observations as the Thursday night schedule starts to heat up?

• Holy blowout!  The Patriots getting demolished by the Browns sent them plummeting to 12th from 3rd.  I am not sure they are this bad, but they do not have a ton of margin for error as their receivers gel.  That said, the Browns are THIS close to being a good team.
• Ditto for 10th ranked Detroit.  Another tough loss to a good team.  They are THIS close to breaking through with all that talent on the offensive side of the ball.
• Dallas and Carolina might consider taking the rest of the season off.
• Seattle falls to 4-4 with a destructive loss to the surging Giants.  On the surface the loss is not a shock – but could this start the trend of Pete Carroll teams falling down the toilet as the season evolves?

NFL Power Rankings – Week 7

After six weeks, the Steelers fall from the #1 perch.  Their controversial escape from Miami motivates this to a degree, but really a team which has been covertly piling up good result after good result is now at the top.  As always, 50% a team’s scoring margin, 50% the opponents margin against other teams … and so, a very AFC heavy Top 10 …

Rank	Team	W	L	T	Margin	Sched Rtg	SOS Rank	Last Wk
1	Titans	5	2	0	15.577	2.542	13	2
2	Steelers	5	1	0	15.546	4.671	1	1
3	Jets	5	1	0	12.014	0.597	23	3
4	Patriots	5	1	0	11.231	2.856	11	5
5	Colts	4	2	0	8.975	0.308	24	6
6	Chiefs	4	2	0	8.242	0.158	26	11
7	Falcons	5	2	0	8.162	1.448	19	7
8	Giants	5	2	0	7.851	3.208	9	9
9	Ravens	5	2	0	7.36	2.502	14	4
10	Chargers	2	5	0	7.173	1.387	20	13
11	Eagles	4	3	0	6.651	2.544	12	8
12	Packers	4	3	0	6.108	0.18	25	12
13	Lions	1	5	0	6.043	3.543	7	10
14	Bears	4	3	0	4.798	1.583	18	14
15	Vikings	2	4	0	4.321	3.404	8	15
16	Redskins	4	3	0	4.048	2.976	10	17
17	Cowboys	1	5	0	2.824	3.574	6	18
18	Browns	2	5	0	2.744	4.173	3	25
19	Texans	4	2	0	2.711	3.878	5	21
20	Seahawks	4	2	0	2.204	-1.713	31	19
21	Dolphins	3	3	0	1.878	4.128	4	24
22	Raiders	3	4	0	1.731	-0.34	29	27
23	Bengals	2	4	0	1.628	0.794	22	22
24	Rams	3	4	0	0.379	-0.014	27	23
25	Saints	4	3	0	-0.457	-3.207	32	20
26	Broncos	2	5	0	-1.494	4.292	2	16
27	49ers	1	6	0	-3.357	1.643	16	26
28	Bucs	4	2	0	-4.035	-0.201	28	28
29	Cardinals	3	3	0	-5.422	2.369	15	29
30	Jaguars	3	4	0	-8.195	1.59	17	30
31	Panthers	1	5	0	-9.61	-1.61	30	31
32	Bills	0	6	0	-10.056	1.028	21	32

Some observations from this week’s madness?

• One of my friends on Facebook complained about the Eagles being rated lower than the Falcons despite a head to head victory.  My standard response is that the model does not know how good the teams are.  Each week’s results reveal that – so an early victory gets better or worse with age.  This obviously is unfair to injury cases, but you have to take that as it is.  Also games like Detroit’s 44-6 win over the Rams and this weeks Raiders pasting of Denver skew a bit.
• The plunge of the week was Denver sliding to 26.  I don’t think much needs to be said.
• Big mover is Cleveland, with as stunning a result as Oakland’s.  And, to be fair, they have competed fairly well – and Peyton Hillis has been a covert fantasy hero.  At the top of the charts, the mover is Kansas City – who week after week is proving that they might really be a good team.  Certainly nobody else in the AFC West is.
• Chargers and Cowboys are the poster boys for punching below their weight.  The Chargers in particular have the fundamentals (#1 offense, #1 defense) of an elite team, but the wins have not followed.  Their #10 ranking is fair (the model sees what it sees) but obviously they have the losses to prove any sort of anecdotal “they suck” case.

2011 NBA Preview: Teams 30-25

The first part of our 2011 NBA Preview started with last year’s rankings recapped.  But of course, that was LAST year.  What about this year – and shouldn’t an NBA preview feature wanton, almost certainly incorrect assessments about who is most likely to raise the banner next season?  But of course!  But to reach the top, we start at the bottom, so we count down the teams to the favorite to take home the gold.

30. Minnesota Timberwolves (29th ranked in 2010, 29th offense, 27th defense)

After a season where GM David Kahn decided to stockpile point guards – we now have a situation where he decided to stockpile small forwards.  We have #4 overall pick Wesley Johnson – who has NBA talent but is 23, so one wonders if he has any star future – we have the highly fungible Martell Webster, Corey Brewer – a glue guy on a team desperate for stuff to glue together, and Michael Beasley – who really should be playing power forward.  Alas, Kevin Love is occupying that spot because Kahn has been seduced by Darko Milicic as a center with a pulse.  The team has a lot of depth, but I am not sure any of them besides Love are any good at all.  They are horrid on both ends of the floor and there is not a lot in their offseason that offers evidence of change.  Kurt Rambis’ attempts to fit these guys into the triangle also showed real questions about his ability to coach a CYO team.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: A Godzilla like space creature comes in and marauds every other city in the country but, due to a fear of Prince music, leaves Minneapolis untouched.

29. Toronto Raptors (17th overall in 2010, 5th offense, 30th defense)

The Raptors, like many of the teams in the toilet bowl section of this preview, are a series of complimentary players waiting for a superstar to save them.  Of course Chris Bosh, their best player, walked out the door to fulfill a pinky swear promise with Wade and LeBron, and left this Charmin-soft band of misfits behind.  Props to Brian Colangelo for foisting Hedo Turkoglu’s deal on the unsuspecting Phoenix Suns, but what is left here might be the single least intimidating team in NBA history.  With Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Linus Kleiza, Leandro Barbosa – they can score and shoot well.  They were the 5th best offense a year ago, and that will suffer with Bosh’s absence – though they should still be middle of the pack.  However, their appalling defense of a year ago (not just 30th, but 30th by a larger margin than the difference between 29th and 25th) figures to be even worse too.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The NBA changes its rules to allow all games played in Canada to be decided by a game of 21 or Knockout.

28. Detroit Pistons (28th overall in 2010, 21st in offense, 26th in defense)

The real surprise over the years as the Pistons have fallen apart from their 2003-2008 heyday is how they still play a molasses slow pace, but are now incredibly easy to play against.  26th in defense!  How?  After losing Flip Saunders, their offense faded from super efficient to pretty shaky, but the defense has slid too.  We know Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon are not defensive aces, but Tayshaun Prince (when healthy), Richard Hamilton, Ben Wallace (who to be fair, had a good season) – where is the accountability?  Really there feels like there is just a depression over the franchise – this has not been a crash, but a gradual descent into irrelevance, kind of incredible given that they were in the semifinals as recently as 2008.  The ownership change to Mike Ilitch, who knows winning with the Red Wings and Tigers, will help – but not yet.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The clock turns back to 2004.

27. Cleveland Cavaliers (1st overall in 2010, 3rd offense, 8th defense)

The #1 team of last year is 27?  How?  Ummm … I don’t know.  Seriously, what LeBron’s loss will do for their previously 3rd ranked offense cannot be overstated.  Their offense relied on having lots of good shooters and LeBron to slice them up.  Now?  Well Ramon Sessions is a good pick and roll point guard, but nobody would call him a LeBron playmaker.  Actually the cupboard is not that bare on some level, Hickson and Varajeao could be a very good frontcourt and they did defend well in the past.  I would not be surprised if they did better, but I am not sure where the offense comes from.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF:  They trade for Antawn Jamison to give LeBron that help … oh wait a minute.

26. New Jersey Nets (30th overall in 2010, 30th offense, 25th defense)

The 12-70 Nets can’t get a whole lot worse than last year.  Considering this team flirted with East postseasondom in 2009, and Devin Harris and Brook Lopez have all star ability in them, there are some raw materials.  I loved the pickup of Anthony Morrow, who is one dimensional, but elite at that dimension (shooting the rock).  If they surprise me, they have the pieces to do so.  That said, their first round pick, Derrick Favors, is more a guy to dream on in the future than the present.  Their coaching will be somewhat improved with Avery Johnson (since Kiki Vandeweghe was just a sacrificial lamb) although Lawrence Frank is not at all a bad coach – the marginal improvement from the beginning of last season to this year is pretty small.  Really I just don’t see how they got THAT much better despite all their claims about cap space.  Travis Outlaw does not an offseason make.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: Well, they add Carmelo Anthony without seriously injuring the core i.e. just moving Favors, they start becoming interesting.  They have the cap room and assets to make a big move, so on some level this is a team that can at least dream – just not with this roster.

25. Golden State Warriors (22nd overall in 2010, 14th offense, 28th defense)

The best thing that happened to them is that Chris Cohan sold his team.  I know nothing about the new owners, but if they are just adequate that will be plenty.  This year’s team will not bear the fruit of this infusion of competence, but still one of the best markets in the league has hope again.  The team will be fun. Stephon Curry is one of my favorite players in the league, though he is paired with one of my least favorites in Monta Ellis.  They will run and score – their pace last year was the fastest in the league by a wide margin.  They will not defend – and getting David Lee in the offseason only makes that worse – although new coach Keith Smart might at least pretend since unlike Don Nelson, he will give a shit.  Also unlike Don Nelson, Smart might play Brandan Wright, who has been either injured or treated unconscionably by Nelson in the past.  There is talent even if they can’t guard a traffic cone.

CAN WIN THE TITLE IF: The playoffs occur at Rucker Park.  Really at least the last three teams in this section still have some ceiling – maybe not title ceiling, but could at least keep their fans flipping the sports pages until March.  The Warriors will be zany, and they will unearth good NBDL talent – but this is still a year or two away from being really somebody.

NFL Power Rankings – Week 2

(unrelated note: two more mobile feasts added to the food truck page)

Well, if we can come up with a model to rank college football teams, might as well do the same with the NFL.  The nice thing with the NFL is 1) two games in the books for everyone so strength of schedule numbers are cleaner and 2) no neutral site games to worry about aside from the Halloween 49ers-Broncos game in London.  With 2 weeks of datapoints in the books, where do we shake down?

Rank	Team	W	L	T	Margin	Sched Rtg	SOS Rank
1	Steelers	2	0	0	36.75	28	1
2	Falcons	1	1	0	23.75	9.5	7
3	Texans	2	0	0	23.25	15	2
4	Packers	2	0	0	19.5	0.75	20
5	Chiefs	2	0	0	19	12.75	3
6	Colts	1	1	0	18.5	9.75	6
7	Chargers	1	1	0	17	6.25	11
8	Jets	1	1	0	12.75	6.25	11
9	Titans	1	1	0	12.5	4	13
10	Eagles	1	1	0	12.5	12.75	3
11	Browns	0	2	0	11	11.75	5
12	Broncos	1	1	0	8.5	1.75	15
13	Bears	2	0	0	5	-2.75	22
14	Vikings	0	2	0	4.75	7.5	9
15	Bucs	2	0	0	4	-5.75	26
16	Patriots	1	1	0	3.75	2	14
17	Ravens	1	1	0	3.25	1.75	15
18	Redskins	1	1	0	3	1.5	18
19	Seahawks	1	1	0	2.5	-3.25	24
20	Jaguars	1	1	0	-0.5	6.75	10
21	Lions	0	2	0	-0.5	1.75	15
22	Cowboys	0	2	0	-3.75	1	19
23	Dolphins	2	0	0	-4.5	-12.5	30
24	Bills	0	2	0	-5.25	9	8
25	Bengals	1	1	0	-5.75	-3	23
26	Saints	2	0	0	-7	-12.75	31
27	Cardinals	1	1	0	-11.375	-0.5	21
28	Giants	1	1	0	-13.5	-9.75	29
29	Raiders	1	1	0	-15.75	-6	27
30	49ers	0	2	0	-16.5	-4.25	25
31	Panthers	0	2	0	-20	-8.75	28
32	Rams	0	2	0	-26.625	-25.375	32

A few thoughts:

• The methodology is the same as for college football.  As such, the Steelers being at the top is not a surprise.  Two solid wins over teams that kicked the tar out of its other opponent.  The Rams being the worst is a mild surprise given how pathetic the Bills have actually played compared to the Rams decent results.  But the Rams have played a couple of lousy teams and have little to show for it.
• The two 0-2 teams with positive rankings are the Vikings and Browns.  The Browns seem a bit unsustainable, only because I am not sure the results of Kansas City and Tampa in the future will buoy the Browns so.  The Vikings however did play two good teams New Orleans and Miami (who I sense might be punching above their 23rd rank weight).
• The Packers schedule is light like the Dolphins I suppose, but the Packers have crushed it so far – the Dolphins have been very impressive defensively, but it is hard to keep winning 15-10 games.

Cavaliers-Celtics: Game 6 Preview

Well, here we are.  The most hyped second round game in NBA history possibly.  I am not sure if world peace is precisely on the line, or even if LeBron’s immediate future is determined by this game.  However, it is big – and it represents the Celtics’ best chance to pull off a shocking upset, an upset that even I never saw coming — at all.  There are a lot of variables and factors that are going to come into play – and as a Celtics fan I am decidedly apprehensive.  But, if other Celtics fans can be brave, I guess I ought to be.

1. The Cavaliers defense – LeBron was awful, but the Cavaliers gave up 70 points in the second half and 40 points in the 4th quarter to the Celtics, who were only 12th in the regular season in offensive efficiency.  The Celtics were not playing a breakneck pace by any means either – this was just old fashioned crap defense.  Everyone has to defend better – whether it be Mo Williams on whomever, or Antawn Jamison – whose post defense Boston has targeted all series.  Shaq and Jamison on the floor together have been molasses slow.
2. Paul Pierce’s swagger – in Game 5, Pierce had a terrific 21-11-7 stat-sheet stuffing performance, after being hounded by LeBron for four games.  Part of this is related to #3 on this list, but still.  Is Pierce up to it again – especially with only one day rest?
3. Mike Brown’s brain waves – the Cavaliers were the top record in the league.  They sliced through Chicago in 5, split 4 games with Boston, although their Game 3 win was the most authoritative of the bunch.  This was not a team that needed an overhaul.  But Mike Brown panicked.  He mothballed JJ Hickson for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, put LeBron on Rondo for stretches – and thus opened up mismatches for the other Boston wing players.  LeBron as a power forward would make tubby Glen Davis cry or lazy Rasheed Wallace look terrible … but they have not tried it.  To say Brown has suboptimally deployed his lineup would be an understatement.
4. The stars.  Hey, we knew it had to come up.  LeBron cannot deliver like he did in Game 5 – his teammates just are not good enough to overcome that.  On the other side, Rondo has been wonderful all series – and he needs to control the tempo again for the Celtics to have a prayer.

I am cautiously pessimistic – and maybe there is some reverse jinx working here too, but … Cavaliers 103, Celtics 87.  It feels like Cavaliers have so many simple things they can do to close loops here.  The bet is that they do.

The LeBacle: Celtics 120, Cavaliers 88

Well, many other writers I respect have weighed in (even if you might need to pay a little extra to see it).  So, clearly I am late to the party.  However, after LeBron’s putrid 3 for 14, in Cleveland’s shocking loss to Boston last night, it is would be wrong for someone who chronicled NBA power rankings to let it go without comment.  What did I see in the game?

Clearly, LeBron is struggling.  Whether it be the elbow or whatnot, he has not been as insistent as he has been in his better performances.  Indeed, examining the Cavaliers 117-113 loss to Boston at the end end of the regular season where Cleveland nearly came back from 22 down, LeBron took 31 shots and 22 FTs to go with 9 assists!  In fact, looking at all of the regular season results, this is what you get:

Regular Season vs Celtics

	FG	FGA	FT	FTA	OffReb	Ass	TO	M
Cavs	143	306	98	141	36	81	43	192
LeBron	46	97	46	66	5	33	12	165
Possessions	375.04	384		PPP	1.024		LeBron usage	0.400
LeBron Poss	149.04	149			1.000		LeBron create	0.388

I use Hollinger’s Usage Rate Calculation here. And note, there are no 3 pointers in play here – just so the assists are treated all equally (even if that is not true in a practical sense).  So LeBron was involved in 40% of the Cavaliers possessions vs the Celtics and generated nearly 39% of the offense.  In the 117-113 aforementioned game, LeBron had to assert himself, and thus his usage went up to 51%!  Over half the Cavs possessions while he was on the floor involved him in some form or another.  This is their offensive philosophy.

Look at the playoff games and what do we get?

This Series

	FG	FGA	FT	FTA	OffReb	Ass	TO	Min
Cavs	165	357	134	176	38	99	71	240
LeBron	43	93	43	58	6	33	18	208
Possessions	467.44	464		PPP	0.993		LeBron usage	0.318
LeBron Poss	147.52	140			0.949		LeBron create	0.302

So the usage dropped all series, down from 40% of possessions in the Celtics games to 31.8%.  This is a 21% drop from the regular season meetings.  LeBron has also created less of the Cavs offense by 22.2%.  The Celtics defense can get some credit – and this dropoff might be nice if we were talking about great Cavs offense.  However, the Cavs points per possession have dropped.  So the Cavs offense has dropped and LeBron’s INVOLVEMENT has dropped also.

The nadir of course was the LeBacle.  His line represented a ghastly 30.3% usage rate generating a mere 20.9% of the points.  30.3% against 40.0% in the regular season!!  This is a drop of nearly 1/4.  LeBron just did not assert himself.

Whether it is injuries or the metaphysical baloney Chuck was mentioning on Inside the NBA, LeBron has to step his game up again.  LeBron was brilliant all postseason last year, even in defeat.  This series he has not insisted on being counted – not yet anyway.  He is not the first star to have a bad stretch – indeed Kobe blatantly mailed in playoff games before – but he has a lot to answer for.

And with that, I jink my Celtics.

NBA Playoffs Round 2 Picks

Well, this is hardly revelation. Indeed, two of the series are already underway with the Lakers and the Cavaliers each taking 1-0 leads. Fortunately I was not picking the Celtics or the Jazz to sweep, so no biggie. So the series (rankings based on final rankings):

Cavaliers (2) vs Celtics (10):  To their credit, the Celtics will not be scared.  Of course this is a rematch of a 2nd round series from 2007-2008 when the Celtics beat the Cavs in a series where nobody won on the road.  This time, the Celtics NEED to win in Cleveland.  Alas, they have blown leads all season and their defense, 6th in the league, has wavered at times when they’ve needed big results.  Cavs athleticism is a real problem.  Celts must stop the Cavs 3 – and Rondo has to dominate.  Cavs in 5

Magic (1) vs Hawks (8): In Round 1, Magic played the Bobcats – 2 stout defenses with only one good offensive team – hence a Magic sweep.  Now, two of the league’s best offenses but this time the Magic have the far superior defense.  The Hawks have struggled in head to head matchups, and the Magic depth and quality is hard to top.  Both teams are very efficient on offense without being great assist teams – Magic take high level shots, Hawks offensively rebound.  Really I don’t see how the Hawks win.  Magic in 5

Lakers (7) vs Jazz (5):  Kirilenko has to play.  The Jazz showed to be a lousy defense in round 1 against Denver.  However, Denver was lousier and the Jazz scored at will.  The Lakers size and length are a tough matchup for the Jazz’ bigs.  Without Kirilenko the Jazz must win this on offense, which they are solid at.  However, the Lakers defense, with Bynum is outstanding.  There is a reason the Jazz have had trouble winning.  However, the Lakers did not look great against the Thunder.  They really are vulnerable.  The offense has been pedestrian, or streaky at the very least.  This could be a good series.  Lakers in 7

Suns (3) vs Spurs (4):  What a history these teams have.  Granted, the Spurs have had the better of it, but such a style matchup.  The Spurs are much more offensive minded now than back in the day.  I mean then the offense was efficient, but now their offense is more important, as their defense is not “great” anymore at a mere 9th.  The Suns are wonderful offensively, and they did very well in head to head this season.  They came off of a good series against a feisty Portland team, giving them 3 of their 4 worst losses of the season.  If Suns can manage the size, they should finally break through this time.  Suns in 6

The Final Power Rankings and First Round Picks

Process here. Rankings there:

Rank	Team	W	L	Off	Def	Road	SOS	Rating
1	Magic	59	23	104.631 (2)	96.214 (1)	1.75	3.166 (30)	13.333
2	Cavaliers	61	21	104.39 (3)	97.272 (8)	1.75	3.173 (29)	12.041
3	Suns	54	28	107.908 (1)	102.168 (19)	1.75	3.276 (25)	10.766
4	Spurs	50	32	102.717 (9)	97.59 (9)	1.75	3.532 (17)	10.41
5	Jazz	53	29	103.122 (8)	98.527 (10)	1.75	3.586 (13)	9.93
6	Thunder	50	32	101.459 (11)	97.188 (7)	1.75	3.584 (14)	9.604
7	Lakers	57	25	101.152 (13)	97.091 (5)	1.75	3.658 (10)	9.47
8	Hawks	53	29	104.132 (4)	100.085 (15)	1.75	3.381 (23)	9.178
9	Nuggets	53	29	103.777 (6)	100.105 (16)	1.75	3.63 (12)	9.051
10	Celtics	50	32	101.165 (12)	97.178 (6)	1.75	3.258 (27)	8.995
11	Blazers	50	32	103.569 (7)	99.894 (13)	1.75	3.415 (21)	8.84
12	Mavericks	55	27	102.457 (10)	98.973 (12)	1.75	3.472 (20)	8.706
13	Heat	47	35	100.305 (18)	96.849 (4)	1.75	3.219 (28)	8.426
14	Bobcats	44	38	97.408 (24)	96.389 (2)	1.75	3.411 (22)	6.18
15	Bucks	46	36	97.553 (23)	96.462 (3)	1.75	3.258 (26)	6.098
16	Rockets	42	40	100.13 (19)	100.907 (17)	1.75	3.928 (2)	4.901
17	Raptors	40	42	103.869 (5)	104.906 (30)	1.75	3.499 (18)	4.211
18	Bulls	41	41	96.563 (28)	98.573 (11)	1.75	3.568 (15)	3.308
19	Hornets	37	45	100.59 (16)	102.895 (22)	1.75	3.741 (7)	3.187
20	Grizzlies	40	42	100.398 (17)	102.932 (23)	1.75	3.739 (8)	2.955
21	Pacers	32	50	97.062 (26)	99.996 (14)	1.75	3.473 (19)	2.288
22	Warriors	26	56	100.65 (14)	104.321 (28)	1.75	3.897 (3)	1.977
23	Kings	25	57	98.103 (22)	102.032 (18)	1.75	3.868 (4)	1.689
24	Knicks	29	53	100.646 (15)	104.386 (29)	1.75	3.346 (24)	1.355
25	Sixers	27	55	99.066 (20)	103.097 (24)	1.75	3.546 (16)	1.265
26	Wizards	26	56	97.101 (25)	102.302 (20)	1.75	3.633 (11)	0.183
27	Clippers	29	53	96.693 (27)	102.357 (21)	1.75	3.866 (5)	-0.048
28	Pistons	27	55	98.198 (21)	104.067 (26)	1.75	3.68 (9)	-0.439
29	Timberwolves	15	67	94.652 (29)	104.233 (27)	1.75	4.111 (1)	-3.719
30	Nets	12	70	94.115 (30)	103.745 (25)	1.75	3.786 (6)	-4.094

A key caveat: With the last month being tanking/amateur hour and good teams being judicious with managing players – I suspect the Lakers and Cavaliers are undervalued. That said, still revealing as we get to the end:

• The Magic have been the best team the second half of the year.  Took the season for Vince Carter to get integrated, and their defense was lazy earlier in the season.  However, back at #1, just like last year.  Their #2 offense is hard to say has dropped off at all.
• The Cavaliers got off slow too, but rolled down the stretch save for preserving LeBron a bit.
• Lakers really staggered to the finish.  They seemed to be shoo-ins for the best record for a while.  They can still right the ship, but with a scant 9 games separating the #1 and $#8 seed in the West who knows?

Now for some quick picks for the first round (power ranking in parens) …

EAST:

Cavaliers (2) vs Bulls (18): Bulls played hard down the stretch, Rose is a terrific PG.  But Cavs defend the position well, and there is LeBron.  Cavs in 5

Celtics (10) vs Heat (13): Celtics after a 27-5 start, are a 23-27 team.  This is not a good team right now, though they have played in stretches.  Wade the best player on the floor.  Heat playing better D than Boston, but it’s a toss up.  Celtics in 7

Magic (1) vs Bobcats (14): Top 2 defenses in the league.  Alas the Magic have offensive skill.  Magic in 5.

Hawks (8) vs Bucks (15):  Hawks have been metsa metsa since a fast start.  However, their efficient size-based offense has been there all year.  Bucks are scrappy, tough defensively, but without Bogut the size match is too problematic.  Hawks in 6

WEST:

Lakers (7) vs Thunder (6): You read that right.  Thunder have the better body of work in terms of indicators even with 9 less wins.  Durant is a prime time scorer.  They are a good defensive club (7th).  The Lakers were the top defensive team when healthy though, and the wins and home court count for something.  If Kobe is ready and effective, they should advance.  But the Thunder will not be pushovers.  Lakers in 6

Nuggets (9) vs Jazz (5): Another upside down series.  Jazz hurt themselves badly slipping out of the home court position by getting whomped by Phoenix.  They have played better basketball than Denver all season, but Denver is still better against good teams (5th, Utah 11th).  And with home court, and Utah with an iffy Boozer, they get the edge despite their own myriad of issues.  Nuggets in 7

Mavericks (12) vs Spurs (4): Mavericks have been close game kings all season.  The Spurs have outpaced them in fundamentals most of the season.  Does this mean they will win?  Not sure.  Dallas won in 5 last year and the matchups favor them in a lot of places.  That said Manu is healthy, and we have not had that for a while.  Spurs in 6

Suns (3) vs Blazers (11):  Love this series.  Lots of matchups up front (Amare vs Aldridge), at the point (Nash vs Miller), subplots (Suns vs the slowest paced team in the game … will Roy be effective).  Suns have been the big overachievers in the league this season – their last two wins have been special.  They are as good offensively as ever.  Can they defend the paint though.  This could go any direction, but I just don’t think the Blazers have the offense without Roy at 90%.  Suns in 7